The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has left unchanged its forecast for Ukrainian economy growth in 2018 at 3% and expects that the same pace would be retained in 2019, the bank has said in a survey on its website. The bank said that large foreign exchange debt repayments by the public sector falling due in 2018-20 and the forthcoming presidential and parliamentary elections cycle in 2019 represent important risks to the growth outlook.
Continuation of the IMF (the International Monetary Fund) programme is uncertain due to the lacking commitment on the part of the authorities to meet key reform requirements, the bank said.
The EBRD said that the growth of Ukrainian economy remains subdued.
As reported, the World Bank remained unchanged its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2018-2019 at 3.5% and 4% respectively.
However, the bank said that if reforms are delayed, growth could drop below current levels in an uncertain macroeconomic environment as financing risks rapidly increase and GDP growth could slow to 2%.
The IMF retained its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2018 at 3.2%, while it reviewed downwards the forecast for 2019 to 3.3% from 4%.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts that Ukraine’s GDP would accelerate in 2018 to 3.4% from 2.5% in 2017 and slow to 2.9% in 2019-2020.