Business news from Ukraine

MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN OCT-NOV, 2019

11 December , 2019  

The direct and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in 2020 will be reduced to 52.4%, Finance Minister of Ukraine Oksana Markarova has said.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has reviewed upwards the expectations for the economic growth in Ukraine in 2019 from 2.5% to 3.3% and from 3% to 3.5% in 2020, according to the EBRD Regional Economic Prospects report.
The growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in July-September 2019 amounted to 4.2% compared to the same period in 2018, while in the second quarter the growth rate was higher and amounted to 4.6%, in the first quarter it amounted to 2.5%.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimates GDP growth in the third quarter of 2019 compared to the corresponding period of 2018 at 3.5%, according to the NBU’s inflation report.
The World Bank has improved the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2019 from 3.4% to 3.6%, World Bank Senior Economist Anastasia Golovach has said.
Renaissance Capital investment company expects the potential growth of the Ukrainian economy thanks to the implementation of declared reforms by 2.5-2.7% and predicts the peak of GDP growth by 3.7% in 2021, while in 2019-2020 it could be 3.4%.
Analysts of JP Morgan have reviewed downwards the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2019 from 4.3% in their October survey to 4%, and in 2020 they still predicts 3.8% GDP growth, according to their November survey.
The mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), working in Ukraine during November 14-22, has said that it had constructive and fruitful discussions with representatives of Ukrainian authorities, although more discussions in the near future are needed for signing the Staff Level Agreement.
Real wages in Ukraine on October 2019 increased by 9.2% compared with October 2018, while compared with September 2019 they decreased by 0.3%, the State Statistics Service has said.
The surplus of Ukraine’s foreign trade in services in January-September 2019 increased by 7% compared to the same period in 2018, to $4.228 billion, the State Statistics Service has said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-September 2019 increased by 8.4% compared with January-September 2018, to $7.099 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The deficit of the foreign trade balance of Ukraine for January-September 2019 amounted to $4.072 billion, which is 6.4% more than in January-September 2018 (a negative balance of $977.6 million), the State Statistics Service has reported.
Ukraine in January-October of 2019 decreased imports of aluminum ore and concentrate (bauxites) in natural terms by 0.9% compared to the same period in 2018, to 4.039 million tonnes.
Consumer prices in Ukraine in October 2019 increased by 0.7%, as in the previous month, after falling by 0.3% in August, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service has said.
The volume of cash in circulation in Ukraine for the ten months of 2019 decreased by 2.5% and amounted to UAH 390.1 billion by November 1, Viktor Zaivenko, the director of the money circulation department of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), has said at a briefing in Kyiv.
The deficit of the national budget for January-October 2019 was UAH 30.278 billion, while the deficit of the general fund of the national budget totaled UAH 35.373 billion, according to the website of the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
The tax index of Ukraine in April-October 2019 worsened to 2.9 points out of 5, which is 0.08 points less compared with the figure of the previous six months, according to a study of the European Business Association (EBA).
Ukrainian banks have fully switched to the application of the International Bank Account Number (IBAN), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has reported on its official website.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) plans to launch transactions with derivatives in the second quarter of 2020, according to a presentation of open markets by the NBU on its website.
The total state (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in October 2019 decreased 1.4%, or by $1.13 billion, to $81.83 billion, according to data on Finance Ministry’s website.
Finance Minister of Ukraine Oksana Markarova has said that in two years Ukraine seeks to cut state debt to 40% of GDP and will strive for deficit-free budget in the future.
The volume of industrial products (goods, services) sold in Ukraine in January-September 2019 was UAH 1.877 trillion, which is 3.7% more than in January-September 2018 (UAH 1,810 trillion), in particular outside the country some UAH 504.429 billion, the State Statistics Service has said.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in October 2019 decreased by 1.2%, after falling by 1.5% in September and by 0.7% in August, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Ukraine as of November 28 had threshed 74.3 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops from an area of 15 million hectares, exceeding the result of the grain harvest for the whole of 2018, when the gross harvest amounted to 70.1 million tonnes.
Ukraine since the beginning of the marketing year 2019/2020 (MY, July-June) and as of November 27, 2019 had exported 23.78 million tonnes of grain and legumes, which is 35.1% more than on the same date last MY.
Milk production in Ukraine in January-October 2019 (excluding the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea, Sevastopol, and the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) area) decreased by 3.6% compared to the same period in 2018, to 8.4 million tonnes.
The transport enterprises of Ukraine (excluding the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as part of the Joint Forces Operation area) in January-October 2019 increased cargo transportation by 8.8% compared to the same period in 2018, to 561.6 million tonnes, according to the State Statistics Service.
Ukraine’s transport enterprises in January-October 2019 carried 3.539 billion people, which was 5.6% less than in the same period in 2018, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of construction work in Ukraine in October 2019 increased by 14.9% compared to October 2018, while in September 2019 compared to September 2018 this figure rose by 11.3%.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has set a task to by to develop an action plan to increase Ukraine’s position in the Doing Business ranking by the end of this year, as well as begin preparations for large-scale privatization and the introduction of the land market, the president’s press service said.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine (legal entities and individual entrepreneurs) in January-October 2019 in comparable prices increased by 10.2% compared with January-October 2018, the State Statistics Service has said.
Consumer confidence of Ukrainian in October 2019 worsened first after presidential election and the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) equaled 95.9 (the values of indices can vary from 0 to 200), which is 1.6 points lower, than the indicator in September, according to a survey of Info Sapiens posted on its website.

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