Business news from Ukraine

MACRO SUMMARY OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMY IN JAN-FEB 2021

12 March , 2021  

The Ministry of Economy estimates the drop in the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2020 at 4.2%, which is associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, Minister of Economy Ihor Petrashko has said while discussing the economic strategy until 2030.
The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture has improved its estimate of the contraction of the Ukrainian economy in October-December to 1%, while at the end of last year the ministry expected the economy to fall by 3% in the fourth quarter.
MPs of Ukraine should use all opportunities to create the basis for economic growth next year, First Deputy Head of the Servant of the People parliamentary faction and leader of the eponymous party Oleksandr Korniyenko has said.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) plans to increase the share of mortgage from the current 0.7% to 2% of GDP by 2024, NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko has said.
The price of Ukraine’s VRIs (value recovery instruments) may rise by up to 140-170% thanks to the recovery of the Ukrainian economy compared to the current market price of 113%, analysts at Deutsche Bank believe.
The fall in the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 slowed down to 0.7% from 3.5% in the third quarter and 11.4% in the second quarter, the State Statistics Service has said.
After a 4.1% decline last year, Ukraine’s economy will grow by 4.2% this year, with inflation rising from 5% to 7.2%, according to the updated macroeconomic forecast of the Concorde Capital investment company, forwarded to Interfax-Ukraine.
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ukraine’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B’ with a stable outlook, the agency said on its website.
Exports of goods from Ukraine in January 2021 amounted to $3.93 billion, which is $270 million, or 5.6% less than in the same period in 2020 and is associated with a decrease in exports of corn, wheat, soybeans and meal, Deputy Economy Minister, Trade Representative Taras Kachka said on Facebook on Tuesday.
In 2020, Ukraine doubled its export of goods to China compared to 2019, to $7.1 billion with imports from China at $8.3 billion, while imports from the Russian Federation decreased 35%, to $2.7 billion with exports being $4.5 billion, Deputy Minister of Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture, Trade Representative of Ukraine Taras Kachka has said.
Ukraine in 2020 imported 531,400 vehicles worth more than $ 4.2 billion, including 486,300 passenger cars for almost $ 3.5 billion, Ukrautoprom reported.
Inflation in 2021 will warm the economy, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal has said.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in January 2021 accelerated year-over-year to 6.1% from 5% in December and 3.8% in November, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine said on Tuesday.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), after keeping the refinancing rate at 6% per annum for nine months, on March 4 will increase it by 0.5 percentage points (p.p.), to 6.5%, most bankers interviewed by the Interfax-Ukraine agency are inclined to this opinion.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of February 1, 2021, according to preliminary data, fell to $28.821 billion (equivalent), which is $279 million less than at the beginning of January this year, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has said.
The total public debt of Ukraine in January 2021 expanded by 0.53% in U.S. dollars, to $90.74 billion and by 0.25% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.558 trillion, according to the website of the Ministry of Finance.
Prices in Ukrainian industry in January 2021 compared to January 2020 grew by 17.6%, the State Statistics Service said on Wednesday.
Industrial production in Ukraine in January 2021, which was subject to stricter quarantine, fell by 4% compared to the pre-COVID-19 January 2020, and adjusted to the effect of calendar days the decline was even smaller – 2.7%, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.
The transport companies of Ukraine (excluding the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as part of the JFO area) in January 2021 reduced carriage of goods by 2.2% compared to January 2020, to 42.8 million tonnes, the State Statistics Service has said.
Ukrainian transport companiestransported 187.1 million people in January 2021, which is 44.7% less than in the same period in 2020, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in January 2021 at comparable prices increased by 3.5% compared to January 2020, the State Statistics Service has reported.

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