The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB) has revised downward the forecast for the corn harvest this year from 32 million tonnes to 29.4-29.5 million tonnes under the optimistic scenario due to unfavorable weather conditions during July-August, and also taking into account the situation with harvesting in September and October in a number of regions of Ukraine.
According to a message from UCAB on Wednesday on Facebook, about 13 million tonnes of corn have already been harvested with an average yield of 5.18 tonnes per ha, in some regions corn has already been harvested from more than 50% of the sown area.
“Usually, farmers start harvesting first from less productive fields, so there is some hope, as well as statistical confirmation from the example of last year, when at the end of the harvest, the yield increases slightly. By the end of field work, according to optimistic forecasts, an average yield of 5.75 tonnes per ha is expected,” UCAB said.
According to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, unfavorable conditions have developed almost throughout the entire territory of Ukraine, however, the greatest reduction in the expected yield occurred in Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Poltava, Kirovohrad and a number of southern regions. As a result of dry conditions and a lack of moisture in the soil, premature drying and maturation of plants is observed. During field surveys, insufficient fullness and relatively small sizes of corn ears are often detected.
UCAB’s expectations for the sunflower harvest have been reduced to 12.2 million tonnes from the forecast of 13.6 million tonnes in early September. According to calculations, the average yield is 2.2 tonnes per ha. The largest decline was due to the southern regions, where the production of this oilseed is focused, as well as the central ones.
According to UCAB, soybeans also suffered significantly from unfavorable conditions, so its gross yield is expected to be only 2.7 million tonnes, which is 30% less than last year. This significant decrease occurred, among other things, due to a decrease in the area under crops from 1.6 to 1.3 million hectares.
The analytical agency UkrAgroConsult predicts a wheat harvest of 25.9 million tonnes for 2020 with exports of 17.5 million tonnes and a corn harvest of 36 million tonnes with exports of 29 million tonnes.
“The assessment of export potential for wheat is quite consolidated – 17.5 million tonnes, this figure is fixed in a memorandum, an appendix to which has been recently signed. In any case, exports will be about 3 million tonnes lower than last year,” the UkrAgroConsult export for the grain market, Yelyzaveta Malyshko, said during the Black Sea Grain & Oil Trade 2020 international conference in Kyiv.
According to her, the start of the wheat export season was impressive, for example, from July 1 to August 28, some 4.16 million tonnes of wheat were exported, which is the highest figure for this period in the previous years.
“Now active export contributes to the fact that domestic prices for wheat in September are about $ 30 higher than last year and the demand remains. Expectations in this regard are quite optimistic. Forwards for December are now showing $ 225, but we cannot exclude autumn price deflection after the arrival of Canadian and then Australian wheat crop,” the expert said.
UkrAgroConsult’s estimate of the corn harvest for this year is 36 million tonnes.
The expert noted price expectations for corn are optimistic, however, a decrease in prices during the period of active harvesting cannot be ruled out.
Ukraine exported more than 20.5 million tonnes of wheat and 30.3 million tonnes of corn in the 2019/2020 agricultural year (July-June), President of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) Mykola Horbachev has said. “The 2019-2020 grain season was successful. We produced a record number of grains and oilseeds. The grain and oilseeds harvest was a little over 98 million tonnes, which is an absolute record for Ukraine. A record amount of wheat was grown – more than 28 million tonnes. Wheat exports amounted to more than 20 million tonnes. Corn export exceeded all expectations. We exported more than 30 million tonnes. This year was successful,” he said at a press conference in Kyiv on Thursday.
The head of the UGA predicted that by 2026 Ukraine will produce 113 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds a year and export 70 million tonnes.
According to the UGA, export of grain and oilseeds in the 2020/21 season will be some 58.8 million tonnes.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in February revised upwards the forecast for export of corn from Ukraine in the 2019/2020 agricultural year (July-June) by 0.5 million tonnes compared with the January forecast, to 31 million tonnes, and the corn harvest – by 0.3 million tonnes, to 35.8 million tonnes.
According to the February report posted on the USDA website, the forecast for production and export of Ukrainian wheat remained at the January level – 29 million tonnes and 20.5 million tonnes respectively.
USDA in February did not change the forecast for production and export of Ukrainian barley leaving it at 9.5 million tonnes and 5 million tonnes respectively.
In general, grain forecast for the 2019/2020a agri-year was revised upwards by 0.39 million tonnes, to 75.43 million tonnes and exports – by 0.53 million tonnes, to 56.6 million tonnes.
Alfa Smart Agro has been audited and received an ISCC certificate for the supply of corn and rapeseeds to the EU as raw materials for biofuel, the company has said.
According to a press release, Alfa Smart Agro received the ISCC certificate in a FGP status (first gathering point) and as a trader in rapeseeds and corn.
“Certification for compliance with the ISCC requirements opens up for Alfa Smart Agro the opportunity to supply corn and rapeseeds as raw material for biofuel production to EU countries,” the company noted.
Alfa Smart Agro noted that during the audit, it is not the product itself that is certified, but the process and chain through which it is produced, stored and delivered to the EU markets. Land use is estimated, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions and other indicators are taken into account.
Alfa Smart Agro is a manufacturer of plant protection agents and micronutrients.
Ukraine as of July 22 had fully used quotas for duty-free exports of agricultural products to the EU on nine groups of goods, including honey, sugar, cereals and flour, processed starch, processed tomatoes, grape and apple juice, wheat, corn, and butter. According to a press release from the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC), the pace of quota use and revival of trade with the EU is noticeably accelerating, as on the same date last year seven quotas for duty-free exports from Ukraine to the EU were used.
“Potentially, quotas for barley (79% are now used), poultry (75%), malt and wheat gluten (58%), and starch (53%) will be used by the end of the year,” the association noted.
The UAC said additional quotas for eight groups of goods come in force from October 2017 for a period of three years: for honey, flour and cereals, processed tomatoes, grape and apple juice, oats, corn, wheat, and barley. As of July 22, five of the additional quotas were used: for honey, cereals, juice, wheat, and corn.