The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its August forecast improved the forecast of wheat harvest in Ukraine in the beginning of the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) from 17.5 million tons to 21 million tons, corn – from 25 million tons to 27.5 million tons due to larger than expected planted areas and the second highest yield in history.
At the same time, the document notes, due to the discontinuation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the export forecast was kept unchanged at 10.5 million tons and 19.5 million tons, respectively.
As a result, USDA for wheat raised the forecast for domestic consumption from 7.1 million tons to 8.1 million tons, and transitional residues at the end of MY – from 1.59 million tons to 4.13 million tons, while for corn, the entire crop growth forecast is balanced by an increase in expected transitional residues – from 1.89 million tons to 3.89 million tons.
Overall, the U.S. agency increased its forecast for this year’s feed grain harvest in Ukraine from 31.47 million tons to 33.97 million tons, estimating their exports at 21.37 million tons and raising the forecast for transitional residues from 2.27 million tons to 4.77 million tons.
In the update, USDA estimated last MY 2022/23 wheat crop, the same as a month ago, at 21.5 million tons vs. 33.01 million tons a year earlier, and exports at 16.8 million tons vs. 18.84 million tons, respectively, while reducing transitional residues from 5.27 million tons to 1.65 million tons.
The USDA sees the feed grain harvest falling to 33.93 million tons from 53.51 million tons in MY 2021/22, while exports fell to just 30.80 million tons from 32.93 million tons due to a reduction in transitional residues from 8.69 million tons to 2.15 million tons.
Including the corn crop, last MY’s harvest fell to 27 million tons from 42.13 million tons a year earlier, while exports rose to 28 million tons from 26.98 million tons, also due to a reduction in transitional residue from 7.59 million tons to 1.39 million tons.
USDA’s new forecast for the global wheat crop in MY 2023/24 is projected to reach 793.4 million tons, down 3.3 million tons from the previous forecast. Total wheat exports are forecast at 209.4 million tons, 2.23 million tons less than previously expected. Analysts projected final world wheat stocks at the end of MY at 265.6 million tons, 0.92 million tons less than the previous forecast.
For corn, the estimate for this year’s world harvest was lowered by almost 11 million tons to 1 billion 213.5 million tons, while exports were lowered by 2.07 million tons to 196.19 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for U.S. wheat production by 0.13 million tons to 47.2 million tons. Exports are expected at 19.05 million tons (-0.68 million tons).
Corn harvest is down 5.71 million tons to 398.82 million tons and exports are down 1.27 million tons to 58.65 million tons.
In the EU, USDA worsened its wheat crop estimate by 3 million tons to 135 million tons, keeping exports at 38.5 million tons.
For coarse grains, the EU crop forecast has been worsened by 6.85 million tons to 136.45 million tons and exports by 2.21 million tons to 10.59 million tons, with the estimated corn crop now down 3.7 million tons to 59.7 million tons and exports down 0.9 million tons to 4.1 million tons.
For Russia, the forecast for wheat exports at the same crop estimate of 85 million tons is increased by 0.5 million tons to 48 million tons, and coarse grains is kept at 8.91 million tons with the crop estimate lowered by 2.85 million tons to 39.4 million tons. Including corn, exports are still expected at the level of 4.2 million tons with a decrease in the harvest by 1.7 million tons – to 14.6 million tons.
Ukrainian corn is in stable demand from a number of EU countries, which due to the abnormal heat will not receive their own corn crop, said the analytical cooperative “Pusk”, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Rada (VAR).
“Ukraine exported about 1.2 million tons in July, but the off-season is coming, and only 0.5 million tons are contracted for August,” analysts said at a weekly briefing on Tuesday.
According to their information, the European market is seeing stable small demand from Italy and Spain, where the heat wave of up to 45℃ persists. Also, high temperatures in France are not conducive to the formation of corn crop, the country may not get its own crop. Some importers are buying grain corn now, as there are concerns about the supply of European corn.
The conditional average price of corn is around 175-185 EUR/ton and no significant changes in the market are expected in the near term. The new corn crop is indicatively priced at 150-160 EUR/tonne with delivery in October, but no forward contracts have been signed, experts said.
“It can be predicted that from the second half of August the market will activate,” predicted in “Pusk”.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its July outlook released improved its forecast for Ukraine’s corn crop in the early 2023/24 marketing year (MY) to 25 million tons from 24.5 million tons in the June release, and its export forecast to 19.5 million tons from 19 million tons.
Meanwhile, the overall forecast for feed grain exports in this MY is lowered to 21.33 million tons from 21.53 million tons due to a reduction in the crop estimate to 31.47 million tons from 31.67 million tons.
For wheat, the forecast is kept the same: harvest – 17.5 million tons, exports – 10.5 million tons.
In the update, USDA estimated last MY 2022/23 wheat crop at 21.5 million tons vs. 33.01 million tons a year earlier and exports at 16.8 million tons vs. 18.84 million tons, respectively, with transitional residues reduced from 5.27 million tons to 1.63 million tons.
According to the USDA, the feed grain harvest fell to 33.93 million tons last year from 53.51 million tons in MY 2021/22, while exports fell to just 30.75 million tons from 32.93 million tons due to a reduction in transitional residues from 8.67 million tons to 2.16 million tons.
Including corn harvest in the past MY decreased to 27 million tons from 42.13 million tons a year earlier, while exports increased to 28 million tons from 26.98 million tons, including due to a reduction in transitional residues from 7.59 million tons to 1.39 million tons.
Corteva Agriscience, an international agricultural research company, increased its exports of Pioneer brand corn seed to the EU 16-fold in 2023 through established channels in Romania and Hungary, according to its press release.
According to it, the company was able to achieve a 15 percent increase in yields of Pioneer’s advanced seed hybrids last year through the introduction of precision farming, irrigation and other advanced approaches.
“For ten years we have been developing seed production in Ukraine, because for Corteva Agriscience our country is one of the major players in the global agricultural market, which has a significant impact on global food security,” – quoted the press service of the regional head of seed production Corteva Agriscience Andrey Andriushko.
He said that amid the war the company continues to invest in the production seed complex and support the communities of the region. For example, last year Corteva Agriscience signed a declaration with the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine on deepening and further developing cooperation for food security in Ukraine and the world, which resulted in increasing the production capacity of the seed complex in Stasi village, Poltava region, officially opened in June 2013 and investments of over $56 million. Its annual capacity has reached about 500 thousand seed units of corn and 250 thousand seed units.
According to the company, Corteva is one of the largest taxpayers in the region. The total number of employees, including seasonal workers, reaches nearly 400.
According to the press release, Corteva has invested about UAH 4.6 million in the development of Stasi village since 2013 (to improve infrastructure, medicine, education and social life of the community, in particular, it financed the reconstruction of a bomb shelter for 800 people.
Corteva Agriscience is a global agricultural company. It offers agricultural producers comprehensive solutions to maximize crop yields and profitability. It has more than 150 research facilities and more than 65 active substances in its portfolio.
Its representative office in Ukraine includes a central office in Kiev, a research center in Lyubartsy village (Kiev region) and a seed production complex opened in 2013 in Stasi village (Poltava region). Investments in the plant over five years amounted to more than $56 mln.
In April 2022, the company decided to leave the Russian market due to the full-scale war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine.
Turkey will impose an import duty on wheat, barley and corn starting from 1 May this year. The Russian Union of Grain Exporters does not rule out its cancellation in the new agricultural year, which begins July 1, 2023.
As the official gazette of Turkey T.C. Resmi Gazete reported, from May 1 the duty rate will be 130% instead of 0%. This measure is aimed to protect domestic producers on the eve of the new season.
Earlier, the Ukrainian Agricultural Policy Ministry said that this measure by Turkey will not affect sales of Ukrainian agricultural products as Ukrainian grain is mainly used for processing and subsequent sale to third countries, in which case the duty is not imposed on it.
At the same time, the ministry explained that Turkey has two customs regimes for imports. The first applies to products that are used for domestic consumption, and for such products the Turkish government previously announced a temporary zero rate of duty. After the expiration of the preferential regime returns the rate of 130%. Grain from Ukraine under the first regime, for which the duty is returned, goes to Turkey about 5% of all exports to this country, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy specified.
The second regime exists for products that go on sale to third countries before or after processing. Duty is not paid for this regime.
According to the State Customs Service, during the first quarter of this year, Turkey was the largest exporter of Ukrainian wheat, which was supplied for $ 168.8 million, or 17.7% of its total exports, including $ 70.9 million, or 20.5% in March.
Barley from Ukraine to Turkey during the first quarter of this year was imported at $ 52.7 million or 42.1% of total exports of this crop, including $ 17.3 million or 38.8% in March.
In a March report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its forecast for corn exports from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) by 1 million tons from February data to 23.5 million tons from 22.5 million tons, while for wheat it kept its estimate at 13.5 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report on its website Thursday that its forecast for corn production for the current MY is maintained at 27 million tons and wheat at 21 million tons.
Also in the March forecast, the estimate of transitional corn balances in Ukraine at the end of 2022/2023 MY was reduced by 1 million tons to 2.39 million tons from 3.39 million tons, and by 0.04 million tons for wheat to 4.17 million tons from 4.21 million tons.
At the same time, the estimate of domestic consumption of corn in Ukraine in 2022/2023 MY remained at 5 million tons, and wheat – 4 million tons.
In general, the forecast of fodder grain exports in Ukraine in 2022/23 MY in the March forecast was increased by 1.1 million tons – to 26.03 million tons from 24.93 million tons in February, and the forecast of its production was kept at 34.16 million tons.
Since the beginning of 2022/2023 marketing year (July-June) and until March 3, Ukraine exported 32.54 million tons of cereals, including 18.8 million tons of corn (-1% compared to the same period a year earlier), 11.38 million tons of wheat (1.58 times less), 2.06 million tons of barley (2.73 times less), 16.1 thousand tons of rye (10 times less) and 100.5 tons of flour (+47.8%).
