On July 4, an international conference for the restoration of Ukraine started in Lugano, Switzerland. Among the main decisions taken on the first day of the conference, one can single out the approval of a plan to provide Ukraine with macro-financial assistance in the amount of $750 billion. Of this total, from 150 to 250 billion is expected to be directed to the restoration of infrastructure and housing damaged as a result of hostilities.
At the same time, the mechanisms for the practical implementation of this project remain unclear in the context of the ongoing war and the need to adapt legislation to it and establish partnerships between the state and private companies. Portal Open4business turned to Igor Stakovychenko, an expert in the field of construction and real estate, for a comment.
In his opinion, the practical implementation of the project should be started now at all levels, since delaying the process can lead to negative consequences in the autumn-winter period.
“Mechanisms for allocating funds from the confiscated assets of the Russian Federation and its large businesses are already being implemented by individual countries. We, in turn, need to implement the conversion of these financial assets into specific infrastructure and construction projects by creating representative offices in donor countries and coordination centers in Ukraine,” said Ihor Stakovychenko.
The expert also stressed that the regional principle of recovery, now promoted by the country’s leadership, when a separate partner state is engaged in projects in a separate Ukrainian region, is the most effective at this stage.
In addition, Igor Stakovychenko suggested creating a system of decentralized funding for the implementation of individual projects at the local level.
“But we must not forget about our responsibility to our partners. It is necessary not only to minimize, but to completely exclude the possibility of misuse of foreign aid by local officials. To do this, it is necessary to create a separate trust fund for each individual restoration project, the activities of which will be as transparent and controlled as possible by both the Ukrainian anti-corruption authorities and the donor country,” Ihor Stakovychenko emphasized.
According to the expert, the basis for the creation of such funds should be existing budget programs, as well as amendments to the main financial document.
“In fact, now we can receive funds both in the form of direct assistance and in the form of investments from partners. Here it is important to successfully implement and present the first major restoration projects, which will help increase investment attractiveness even in the current conditions,” added Igor Stakovychenko.
CONSTRUCTION, EXPERT, FINANCE, MARKETS, REAL ESTATE, RESTORATION_OF_UKRAINE, TECHNOLOGY, ІГОР_СТАКОВИЧЕНКО, СТАКОВИЧЕНКО
On July 1, the “Register of Destruction” is launched in Ukraine. With its help, homeowners whose houses and apartments were damaged as a result of hostilities and enemy shelling will be able to apply for compensation using the Diya application.
At the same time, the question of what the restored houses of Ukrainians will be like, taking into account the new realities and requirements for the housing stock after the war, remains no less important. The Open4business portal discussed these issues with Igor Stakovichenko, an expert in the field of construction and real estate.
“The introduction of the “Register of Destruction” will greatly simplify the procedure for compensating for damages for affected citizens. In fact, such a registry will bring together all the data on the destruction in the country. This will be very useful both for the state of Ukraine and for individual citizens when receiving compensation from the aggressor through international legal institutions,” the expert noted.
As for the new technologies that will be used in the construction of housing, here Stakovichenko recommends first of all to focus on the needs of society.
“What most people want from a new home, whose homes have been destroyed by the war, is reliability and security. The presence of equipped bomb shelters, convenient evacuation routes, autonomy – these are the criteria without which it is difficult to imagine post-war architecture,” Igor Stakovichenko stressed.
In his opinion, a good option would be the restoration and development of numerous recreational areas, some of which were abandoned even before the war. Stakovichenko believes that many Soviet-built sanatoriums and boarding houses, which have been practically not used for all the years of independence, can become a good platform for building eco-friendly settlements with autonomous service, since most of the communications have already been connected to them.
“Environmental friendliness and high technologies during construction will also become the hallmark of post-war architecture in Ukraine. Projects such as “zero energy houses”, or even “mini-power houses”, which are now being widely implemented in the EU, will also be popular after the war,” the expert added.
At the same time, Igor Stakovichenko sees no special prospects for aggressive development in the central areas of large cities, which was practiced before the war.
“Multi-apartment residential complexes in large cities will certainly continue to be built, but whether there is a buyer for such housing is already a question. I think many have already revised or will reconsider their views on comfortable housing as a result of the war,” the expert concluded.
CONSTRUCTION, EXPERT, FINANCY, IGOR STAKOVYCHENKO, MARKETS, REAL ESTATE, TECHNOLOGY, СТАКОВИЧЕНКО
The war caused and continues to cause significant damage to the economy of Ukraine. Today, perhaps, the construction and real estate markets suffered the most from the hostilities. Thus, the report of the National Bank of Ukraine “On Financial Stability” dated June 17, 2022 indicates that since the beginning of the war, the market has practically stopped, both in terms of construction and the sale of housing. At the same time, according to the NBU, the situation has begun to level off in recent weeks, and above all in the regions that are least affected by the destruction from the war.
The most favorable situation is in the western regions of the country, while the National Bank notes that a number of significant problems remain there. First of all, this is a market imbalance, when the prices declared by sellers are not supported by demand and are supported artificially.
As for construction, here, according to the regulator, the situation is more optimistic. Developers have restored work on almost 50% of the facilities in the country. The most positive dynamics is observed in the western regions, in the center and in the Odessa region.
As for the office real estate market, according to the NBU, it suffered to a greater extent from the massive transition of staff to remote work.
The Open4business portal asked financial expert Igor Stakovichenko to comment on the current situation. In his opinion, the severity of the crisis in the real estate market directly depends primarily on the intensity of hostilities in various regions of the country, as well as on the well-being of the population.
“We see that the demand for housing in the same Kharkiv and Dnipro collapsed almost equally. At the same time, housing construction in Kharkiv is at a standstill, while in Dnipro it is being restored. This is due to the risk assessment by developers, since the Kharkiv region is now under devastating shelling by the aggressor,” the expert believes.
In his opinion, most of the prices in both the primary and secondary markets are dictated by the overestimated expectations of developers who continue to hope to find a buyer for their goods despite changes in the economy and a decrease in the income of part of the population.
“Builders think in the old way, and form the price based on the cost and those mark-ups that were fair in the pre-war period. Buyers have become much more cautious and assess the risks, in particular, the presence of bomb shelters, evacuation routes, and so on. As for the secondary market, here prices are often drawn from the ceiling, hoping more for luck, ”said Stakovichenko.
According to the expert, market recovery can be expected after the end of the war, when the demand for housing will increase and investors’ fears will decrease.
CONSTRUCTION, EXPERT, FINANCY, IGOR STAKOVICHENKO, MARKETS, REAL ESTATE MARKET, STAKOVICHENKO
Bitcoin is trading near the psychologically important mark of $20,000 on Monday after the fall of the cryptocurrency rate on Saturday to the lowest level in 18 months.
According to CoinDesk, the price of bitcoin at 11:35 Moscow time is $20444. On Saturday, it fell to $17,630, but on Sunday it bounced back above $20,000.
Last week, during which the Federal Reserve System (Fed) raised the base rate by 75 basis points (bp) at once, turned out to be quite volatile for the cryptocurrency market, and experts believe that the current week will also be difficult, writes Market Watch.
“We may be out of the bottom of the market if bitcoin can quickly rise above $20,000 and hold there on Tuesday-Wednesday,” said Winnie Langham, chief executive officer of streaming platform Waitroom. become a tough resistance level.”
Bitcoin has fallen 57% since the beginning of the year, and its fall from the November peak of $69,000 is about 70%.
While some analysts see the beginning of a new “crypto winter” that will eventually end, others believe that the current downturn in the cryptocurrency market could mean the end of the industry as a whole.
The ethereum exchange rate, which also fell sharply on Saturday, rose in price by 15% over the past 24 hours, to $1113.28.
Two days earlier, market expert Igor Stakovichenko, responding to a request from Open4Business, said that in the current situation, the fall of the bitcoin market below 22,000 launched a new, even deeper “bearish phase” of the cycle, as it greatly shook the position of long-term holders of the asset. The long-term holders, who had held their positions during the last drops, could not stand it and started dumping the cue ball at the lowest prices.
“This shook the entire structure, and both technical and macroeconomic indicators today indicate a possible fall in the main cryptocurrency to 16,000 or even lower,” the expert said.
However, according to Stakovichenko, it is too early to bury bitcoin, as “whales” (investors owning more than 10,000 BTC) continue to accumulate this digital currency, which may indicate the possibility of growth in the medium and long term. In addition, the expert predicted possible stabilization and even some growth of the world’s main cryptocurrency.
Yesterday, Bitcoin once again came close to the critical level of $20,000 per 1 BTC. Even the record-breaking increase in the interest rate of the Fed did not save the main cryptocurrency from falling. However, it could not save, since cryptocurrencies are a fairly young investment asset, which has not yet been affected by transition periods and changing phases of economic growth.
The crypto market continues to develop according to its own rules, remaining a speculative product, the high volatility of which attracts a large number of traders who are ready to take risks for the sake of quick earnings. Most often, such traders massively buy cryptocurrency during the growth phase and start to get rid of it just as massively when the market falls, which stimulates a further collapse.
But this time the situation is somewhat different. Many analysts are talking about the beginning of the “darkest time for crypto” in its entire history. The traditional opponents of bitcoin have also revived. Thus, the famous financier Warren Buffett recently stated:
“If I were now offered to buy bitcoins at $25, I would not take them. What should I do with them then? I would have to sell them back to you later. This is a dead end.”
And he added that he doesn’t know if bitcoin will rise or fall next year, in five or ten years, but he knows for sure that he does not produce anything.
The Open4business publication turned to Igor Stakovichenko, an expert in economics and finance, with a request to comment on the situation in the cryptocurrency market. According to the economist, the problem of the lack of a real resource and production base for digital assets has become especially acute in recent months. This is due to the fact that Russian aggression in Ukraine disrupted supply chains and led to higher prices for real sector products in the global economy.
“The fall in the capitalization of the largest companies and the crisis in the stock market naturally led to the collapse of the cryptocurrency market, as many investors considered this asset too risky,” the financier notes.
Stakovichenko stressed that in the current situation, the fall of the bitcoin market below 22,000 launched a new, even deeper “bearish phase” of the cycle, as it greatly shook the position of long-term holders of the asset. The long-term holders, who had held their positions during the last drops, could not stand it and started dumping the cue ball at the lowest prices.
“This shook the whole structure, and both technical and macroeconomic indicators today indicate a possible fall of the main cryptocurrency to 16,000 or even lower,” the expert said.
However, according to Stakovichenko, it is still too early to bury bitcoin, as “whales” (investors owning more than 10,000 BTC) still continue to accumulate this digital currency, which may indicate the possibility of growth in the medium and long term.
BITCOIN, CRYPTOCURRENCY, CRYPTOCURRENCY_MARKET, EXPERT, FINANCE, STAKOVICHENKO, ИГОРЬ_СТАКОВИЧЕНКО
The current price of gasoline at 52-55 UAH/liter and diesel fuel at 58-60 UAH/liter is the equilibrium point for the market, but with the gradual arrival of new volumes of oil products, the price for them will decrease, the director of the A-95 consulting group believes Sergey Kuyun.
“With prices of UAH 52-55/liter for gasoline and UAH 58-60/liter for diesel fuel, as I see it, the market feels normal, queues are decreasing. To some extent, the market has found a balance point, and then it will begin to fill with new batches, and this should lead to lower prices,” he said at a briefing at the Media Center in Kyiv on Monday.
At the same time, Kuyun noted that the price of fuel at 40-45 UAH per liter, which was determined during state regulation, was fair for a stable, secure market, “which we do not have today.”
“Accordingly, we need to reduce consumption, bring down the hype,” the expert said.
As reported, according to the A-95 group, the average retail prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in Ukraine increased by 22-30% in the period May 16-23, in particular, the average retail prices for A-95 gasoline increased by 10%. 72 UAH/liter, up to 50.84 UAH/liter, premium A-95 – by 9.85 UAH/liter, up to 51.51 UAH/liter.
In addition, retail prices for diesel fuel increased by UAH 13.24/liter, up to UAH 56.49/liter, for liquefied gas, by UAH 4.14/liter, up to UAH 39.24/liter.
By Resolution No. 594 of May 17, 2022, the Cabinet of Ministers suspended the state regulation of fuel prices introduced a year ago due to quarantine, expecting that gasoline prices would not exceed UAH 52/liter, diesel fuel – UAH 58/liter.
The decision to cancel the maximum margin for gas stations was made so that market operators could saturate the Ukrainian oil market with the necessary resource in the face of its shortage after reorienting to supplies from the western border and the Kremenchug refinery bombed by Russia.
At the same time, the State Service for Food Safety and Consumer Protection announced the start of inspections of gas stations based on consumer complaints about inflated prices, refusal to pay with cards and the absence of settlement documents.
