“Ukrzaliznytsia” (UZ), the monopoly state railway operator, together with consulting company Deloitte is working on a development strategy until 2030, which will be presented during the next quarter for public discussion, said a member of the supervisory board of UZ, presidential advisor on strategic issues Alexander Kamyshyn.
“I want business to understand, take part in its formation and then understand where this industry is moving. Because Ukrzaliznytsia is not just a company, it is an industry. And that is why this strategy will be discussed publicly and adopted publicly,” he said at the Infrastructure Day organized by the European Business Association in Kiev this week.
Kamyshyn also noted that together with the new team of the Ministry of Development of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure, a draft law on reforming the railroad industry was introduced, which gives seven years for this purpose.
At the same time, according to a member of the UZ nabsovet, who not so long ago led the railroad operator as head of the board, the process of reforming Ukrzaliznytsia continues now. He specified, in particular, that today the next two companies are next in line to be separated within the internal organizational structure of UZ.
“All the necessary amount of work that needs to be done at the level of Ukrzaliznytsia, in order to reform, will be done”, – said Kamyshyn.
He noted that he will be an active member of the supervisory board of UZ.
“For me, the main focus is to return the pace of development of the railroad and show everyone that the railroad can move fast and develop quickly,” – said the Presidential Advisor on strategic issues.
Number of dead and wounded civilians in Ukraine from 24.02.2022 till 31.08.2024 un data
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PJSC “Ukrhydroenergo” on November 28 announced a tender for insurance of motor vehicles of its branches. According to the information on the Prozorro portal, the expected cost of purchasing services is UAH 3.322 mln.
Documents for participation in the tender are accepted until December 6.
The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for January-July 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center and Director of Business Development and Marketing, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. Key aspects such as the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends are considered.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
In the first eight months of 2024, Ukraine’s economy demonstrated steady positive dynamics amid recovery from the crisis. The National Bank of Ukraine estimated real GDP growth in the second quarter at 3.7% compared to the same period last year, which is in line with the April forecast. In July, this figure accelerated to 4.4% (compared to 3.1% in June and 3.5% in May), which was the result of an earlier and faster harvest.
“Ukraine’s economic successes in 2024 show that the country is beginning to overcome the consequences of the crisis. However, against the background of these indicators, it is important to take into account the growth of the negative foreign trade balance. This is a signal of the need to strengthen domestic production and increase export potential to avoid imbalances in the future,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
According to the State Statistics Service, the negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-August 2024 increased by 6.5% compared to the same period last year and amounted to $17.613 billion. The main reason for the increase was a slowdown in export growth amid accelerated imports. At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves grew by 13.7%, reaching $42.33 billion, thanks to the attraction of long-term concessional financing from international partners.
“The growth of reserves to record levels is an important signal of confidence from international partners. However, it is important to realize that inflation remains a challenge. In August, inflation was 7.5% year-on-year after 5.4% in July and 4.8% in June. High inflation can significantly reduce the purchasing power of the population,” Urakin emphasized.
Inflation in August was 0.6% compared to July, when the price level remained unchanged. At the same time, the August price increase contrasts with the figures for the same month last year, when there was a 1.4% decline.
Ukraine’s public debt also changed in the second quarter of 2024. The total amount of state and state-guaranteed debt in hryvnia equivalent increased by UAH 243.7 billion, and in dollar equivalent by $1.1 billion. At the same time, the weighted average debt service rate decreased from 6.24% to 5.6% per annum, which indicates an increase in the efficiency of debt management.
“Effective public debt management, including lower interest rates, is an important step for Ukraine’s financial stability. This allows the country to focus on strategic investments in infrastructure and social development,” the expert added.
Global economy
At the global level, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) left unchanged its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 at 3.2%, but improved its expectations for 2025 to 3.3%. The main drivers of global growth remain emerging market countries, including China and India, whose economies are expected to grow by 5% and 7% respectively.
“The global economy continues to move forward, but faces key challenges, including inflation and high interest rates. Interestingly, the IMF has adjusted its expectations for oil prices – they are expected to rise slightly in 2024, but decline in 2025. This underscores the importance of the stability of commodity markets for developing countries,” said Maxim Urakin.
The European economy shows more modest results. According to IMF forecasts, the Eurozone’s GDP will grow by only 0.9% in 2024, while Germany’s economy will grow by only 0.2%.
“Europe is facing many challenges – from the energy crisis to the slowdown in industrial growth. For Ukraine, this is an opportunity to strengthen its position in trade relations with the EU by exporting competitive goods and services,” the expert emphasized.
Conclusion.
The economic indicators of Ukraine and the world in January-August 2024 show mixed results. Steady GDP growth and strengthened reserves are accompanied by inflationary risks and a negative trade balance. The global economy, while moving forward, is being held back by inflation and geopolitical factors.
“It is crucial for Ukraine to focus on creating an attractive investment climate, increasing labor productivity and developing export opportunities. This will be the key to sustainable economic growth and financial stability in the future,” summarized Maksym Urakin.
Maksym Urakin, Head of the Economic Monitoring project, PhD in Economics
More detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of Interfax-Ukraine Economic Monitoring.
Turkey’s GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2024 slowed to 2.1 percent in annualized terms after climbing 2.4 percent a quarter earlier, the country’s statistical institute (TurkStat) said. This is the worst performance since the second quarter of 2020, when Turkey recorded a contraction in GDP at the height of the coronavirus pandemic. Analysts surveyed by Trading Economics had on average forecast growth of 2.6% in July-September.
Consumer spending rose 3.1% last quarter. Meanwhile, government spending fell by 0.9%, the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2021, and business investment fell by 0.8%, registering a negative trend for the first time in two years.
Exports rose just 0.8% in July-September, while imports fell 9.6%.
Turkey’s GDP contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter relative to the previous three months. The revised data also showed a 0.2% contraction in April-June, while a 0.1% rebound was previously reported.
Turkey’s economy has not contracted for two consecutive quarters on a quarter-on-quarter basis, which meets the technical definition of a recession, since 2018.
Earlier Experts Club think tank and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDPs of countries around the world have changed in recent years, more video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3.
Subscribe to Experts Club’s youtube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
Ukraine wanted to buy arms from South Korea that would help in confronting the Russian army, but Seoul refused, South Korea’s SBS News reported.
According to the publication, the Ukrainian delegation asked for authorization to purchase Korean weapons, not a free transfer. In particular, Cheongung medium-range surface-to-air missiles.
According to the source, Ukraine asked for non-lethal weapons. In addition to Cheongung interceptor missiles, the Ukrainians were interested in radars – for air defense and anti-artillery. The Ukrainians also requested charges for 155mm artillery shells.
It is likely that Korean defense companies such as LIG Nex1, Hanwha and Hyundai Rotem have received offers from Ukraine to cooperate on arms purchases. But the South Korean Defense Ministry recommended them to refrain from signing contracts. The reason for the refusal is allegedly “a high risk of violating foreign trade laws restricting exports to combat zones”.
As reported, a Ukrainian delegation headed by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov visited Seoul earlier this week.
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