On July 1 this year, the President of Uzbekistan watched a presentation of plans in the field of digital technologies, artificial intelligence, and telecommunications.
The number of residents of the IT park of Uzbekistan has exceeded 2800, and the number of foreign companies has reached 752. About 40 thousand young people earn high incomes in this area.
Over the past 5 years, the industry’s exports have grown from $170 million to almost $1 billion.
In 2024, startups attracted $70 million in venture capital investment.
As a result, Uzbekistan has risen 12 positions and entered the top 100 of the global ranking of startup ecosystems. The country also moved up 17 positions in the international AI readiness index, ranking first in Central Asia.
Uzbekistan topped the ranking of CIS countries in terms of the growth rate of the telecommunications industry.
Work in this area is ongoing. In particular, the following goals are set for the next year:
As part of the implementation of these goals, a number of draft regulatory documents have been developed and discussed during the presentation.
To date, 760 types of public services have been digitized. Last year, 10 million citizens used digital services.
Shavkat Mirziyoyev noted that it is time to move on to the next stage – building a Digital Government. First of all, digitalization should cover the most popular areas: education, healthcare, construction, and utilities.
Special attention was paid to the development of artificial intelligence technologies. According to the Presidential Decree of October 14, 2024, the AI development strategy until 2030 was approved. USD 50 million has been allocated for the development of infrastructure in this area.
The goal is to create a national model of artificial intelligence and train 1 million specialists.
The Minister of Digital Technologies reported on the current stages of this task and measures to improve the infrastructure.
Expanding the scope of digital services and export potential remains a priority. So far, the main indicators are concentrated in Tashkent, but thanks to the conditions and benefits created in the country, interest from foreign specialists and companies is growing.
In this context, the President emphasized the importance of creating an attractive environment in each region in order to more actively attract foreign IT companies and stimulate the development of the digital economy throughout the country.
Ukrgazvydobuvannya, part of the Naftogaz group, has commissioned a new high-yield exploration well with a flow rate of 383,000 cubic meters of natural gas per day.
This was reported in a press release of the group with reference to the chairman of the board of Naftogaz of Ukraine, Serhiy Koretsky.
“This result is a joint achievement of all divisions of Ukrgazvydobuvannya that were involved in the design, drilling, and development.
I would like to thank everyone who worked on this well. Step by step, we are strengthening our own production,” he said.
The well is inclined, with a depth of almost 5.7 km. All work, from drilling to commissioning, was completed a month and a half ahead of schedule.
According to Naftogaz, two more exploration wells are currently being drilled at the same field, and three more are planned to start drilling in the near future.
As reported, Ukrgazvydobuvannya set a new drilling record in January-March 2025, reaching 107,136 meters, which is almost twice as much as in the same period of 2024 and exceeds the previous quarterly maximum recorded in the third quarter of 2024 (102,866 meters).
Ukrainians purchased 31,750 electric vehicles in January-June this year, which is 30% more than in the same period in 2024, according to UkrAvtoprom on Telegram.
The share of new vehicles in BEV registrations was 18%, compared to 20% in the same period last year.
In particular, sales of electric passenger cars increased by 28% to 30,760 units, commercial vehicles by 2.1 times to 987 units, and three electric buses were sold (one last year).
The top five new electric vehicles on the market in the first half of the year were BYD Song Plus with 967 units, Volkswagen ID.Unyx with 830 units, Honda eNS1 with 441 units, Zeekr 7X with 402 units, and Zeekr 001 with 366 units.
The top five used electric vehicles registered for the first time included Tesla Model Y (2,968 units), Nissan Leaf (2,853 units), Tesla Model 3 (2,670 units), KIA Niro EV – 1,664 units, and Hyundai Kona – 1,496 units.
As reported, last year, according to UkrAvtoprom, registrations of electric vehicles (new and used) increased by 38% compared to 2023, to 51,700 units, including passenger cars – by 37%, to 50,458 units, commercial vehicles – by 64%, to 1,264 units, and two electric buses were also registered. The share of new electric vehicles in these figures was 20%.
In turn, The Automotive Market Research Institute notes on its website that in June of this year, the total volume of the electric vehicle segment (imported used, new, domestic market) amounted to almost 9,000, which is 2.3% less than in May of this year, but 43.4% more than last June.
“Despite the overall slowdown in the Ukrainian car market, the electric vehicle segment has every chance of maintaining its positive momentum. According to the Institute’s analysts, growth will continue this year, primarily due to the fact that VAT on customs clearance of electric cars will return to Ukraine in 2026,” the report says.
Analysts believe that this will inevitably lead to an increase in their cost by at least 20-30%, while the choice will narrow. Fuel prices, which have risen sharply by several hryvnia per liter, also play a role, giving electric transport an advantage.
According to the institute’s experts, in June, the share of used imported electric vehicles in the sub-segment was 53.3% (4,792 units), new vehicles – 16.2% (1,458 units), and domestic resales – 30.4% (2,735 units).
“As of the end of June 2025, in Ukraine (excluding industrial electric cars, trolleybuses, and rail vehicles), the BEV transport fleet consists of 171,100 units. The largest share is held by passenger cars (166,400), followed by trucks (3,600), electric buses (8), and various motor vehicles (over 1,000),” the report says.
As of July 7, Ukraine had exported 77,000 tons of grains and legumes since the start of the 2025/26 marketing year (July-June), according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing data from the State Customs Service.
According to the report, as of July 5 last year, total shipments amounted to 1.131 million tons.
At the same time, in terms of crops, since the beginning of the current season, 25,000 tons of wheat (320,000 tons in 2024/25 MY) and 0 tons of barley (134,000 tons) were exported, while corn exports amounted to 51,000 tons (673,000 tons).
Total exports of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of July 7 are estimated at 0.8 thousand tons (in 2024/25 MY – 1.8 thousand tons), including wheat flour – 0.8 thousand tons (1.7 thousand tons).
Czech arms manufacturer Excalibur Army has opened an office in Ukraine, according to the company’s press service.
“This step is aimed at strengthening local cooperation, optimizing logistics, and launching joint defense production on Ukrainian soil,” the statement said.
The company noted that as a member of the Czech-Slovak Group (CSG), Excalibur Army has played a decisive role in supplying weapons and military equipment to Ukraine since the first days of the conflict with the Russian Federation.
“We have delivered more than a thousand ground systems to Ukraine, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery systems, and missile launchers, as well as more than two million large-caliber ammunition rounds. With the new office, our company aims to expand its presence and intensify cooperation with Ukrainian defense and industrial partners. Thanks to our cooperation with Ukrainian Armored Vehicles, we have already prepared a project for the local production of large-caliber ammunition,” the company said.
The Ukrainian office will handle orders, documentation, and technical consultations, which will significantly speed up response times and increase operational flexibility.
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of April 1, 2025. The analysis is based on the latest data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the United Nations. Maksym Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
The first quarter of 2025 was a period of slow but positive economic movement for Ukraine. According to updated estimates by the National Bank of Ukraine, the country’s real GDP grew by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating a gradual stabilization after an unstable start to the year. This growth is not high by international standards, but in the context of a full-scale war, constant threats to infrastructure and logistics, and limited access to capital, this result is seen as a positive sign.
“Half a percent GDP growth in the first quarter is more an indicator of the system’s viability than a sign of development. The domestic market has begun to revive, especially in consumption, logistics, and certain technology sectors. But so far, this is mainly growth “in place” — without investment momentum, without exports, without long-term resources,” explains Maxim Urakin.
Inflation remains one of the main challenges. At the end of March 2025, the annual inflation rate was around 12.6%, which is almost unchanged from February but shows a gradual slowdown. The NBU points to the impact of seasonal declines in food prices, currency stabilization, and prudent monetary policy as key factors restraining price growth.
“The main thing is to maintain a balance between fighting inflation and preventing a slowdown in economic activity. The National Bank’s monetary policy in the first quarter was quite balanced: on the one hand, it kept the key rate unchanged, and on the other, it provided soft intervention support for the hryvnia. But we are still far from exiting the inflation risk zone,” the expert emphasizes.
The state of foreign trade, on the contrary, points to deepening structural problems. According to preliminary estimates by the Center for Economic Strategy, the foreign trade deficit reached $3.6 billion in April, as a result of a significant excess of imports ($6.3 billion) over exports ($3.1 billion). According to analysts, the cumulative trade deficit for the first quarter exceeded that of the same period in 2024, despite activity in the agricultural sector and services.
“The worst thing is that this deficit is not situational, but structural. Imports of energy, equipment, chemical products, and transport remain dominant, while exports are mostly limited to raw materials. This threatens currency stability in the event of a cessation of international financial support,” comments the founder of Experts Club.
Against the backdrop of a growing trade gap, the level of international reserves remains a positive sign. According to the NBU, as of April 2025, reserves stood at around $42 billion, a historic high for Ukraine. This growth was made possible by further tranches of financial assistance from the European Union, the US, and the IMF, as well as successful currency operations by the National Bank on the interbank market.
“Reserves of over $40 billion are not just an indicator, they are a safety net for a country living in a state of constant risk. But we should not be tempted by this: it is a resource of trust that must be transformed into economic recovery, otherwise we will lose it again, as we have done in the past,” warns Maksym Urakin.
However, the debt burden remains high. According to the latest estimates, Ukraine’s total public and publicly guaranteed debt at the beginning of April 2025 was about $147.2 billion, or approximately 94% of GDP, of which more than $100 billion is external borrowing. This highlights the country’s dependence on external assistance and international financing, in particular from the IMF, the EU, and the World Bank.
Global economy
Global economic indicators at the beginning of April 2025 point to a slowdown in growth, accompanied by continued inflationary pressures, particularly due to new trade risks and geopolitical instability. According to the IMF, global growth has accelerated its decline to 2.8% in 2025, one of the lowest levels in decades . Inflation is gradually declining in most regions, but remains above target, especially in developing countries .
Macroeconomic uncertainty has intensified amid trade protectionism, rising energy prices, and geopolitical challenges, making forecasting much more difficult. Central banks that have not yet tightened policy are in wait-and-see mode, and investors are becoming more cautious. Morgan Stanley and S&P Global forecasts point to a further slowdown in global GDP to 2.2–2.9% in 2025, which is weighing on investor confidence.
According to the BEA, US GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, the first decline since 2022. This was mainly due to a sharp increase in imports (pre-purchases ahead of possible tariffs) and a reduction in government spending. However, final domestic demand remained relatively stable (+3%). Inflation in March/April was approximately 2.3–2.6% (PCE), in line with the regulator’s expectations; the Fed is keeping rates at 5.25–5.5% pending signs of stabilization.
According to official data, China’s GDP grew by +5.4% y/y in Q1 2025, in line with the government’s target of around 5%. However, fiscal and monetary constraints, particularly in the real estate sector, are slowing down growth. By May, budget revenues had fallen by 0.3% y/y, indicating a slowdown in economic activity. Stimulus measures are being introduced in response, but their effect is still uncertain.
The European Commission forecasts annual GDP growth of +1.1% for the EU and +0.9% for the eurozone, with a marked improvement in the first quarter (+0.6% q/q), the highest figure since 2022. Inflation in March/April was below 2%, gradually approaching the target level.
According to the ONS, in the first quarter of 2025, the UK showed GDP growth of +0.7% q/q, making it the leader among the G7. In annual terms, growth was approximately +1%. Inflation in April was around 3.4%, prompting the Bank of England to remain cautious in lowering rates (from 5.25% to 4.5%). However, exceeding the inflation target is holding back the economy’s recovery.
In the first quarter, Turkey showed positive growth of around +2.3% q/q, or ≈+3.0% y/y. Inflationary pressures remain extremely high at ≈38–39% in March/April, despite measures taken by the central bank.
The Indian economy continues to show one of the highest growth rates among major economies: in the first quarter of 2025, the rate was +7.4% y/y, with inflation under control: CPI — ~3.2% in April. The forecast for the 2024–25 financial year is +6.3–6.5%.
In the first quarter, Brazil managed to achieve GDP growth of +1.3% q/q (≈+3.5% y/y), which is the best result in the last two years. However, inflation rose to 5.48% in April, the highest level since February 2023, and is a source of serious concern.
“The world at the beginning of the second quarter shows promise, but at the same time high instability. The US has fallen into recession, but domestic demand is still holding up. Europe is slowly emerging from the crisis, and the UK is showing resilience. China is stable in terms of growth but weak in consumption. India is a model of dynamism and innovation. Turkey is on the brink of an inflationary crisis. Brazil is moving forward but is at risk due to rising prices. Ukraine must now decide whether to use the flow of imported resources solely to offset the deficit or turn it into an opportunity for a technological and industrial breakthrough,” said Maxim Urakin.
Conclusion
At the beginning of the second quarter of 2025, Ukraine’s economy is in a phase of sustained equilibrium. Modest growth, controlled inflation, and record reserves are the basic factors of stability. However, a deep trade deficit, debt burden, and lack of investment drivers remain key risks for the medium term.
The global economic picture remains mixed, with clear geographical imbalances. Ukraine is showing resilience, maintaining growth and record reserves, while facing challenges in foreign trade. Global markets, from the US to India, are shaping new conditions for strategic solutions to these challenges.
A more detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of the Interfax-Ukraine agency, Economic Monitoring.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maxim Urakin
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1085984.html
