Business news from Ukraine

Issue No. 1 – April 2026

Analysis of the current situation in Ukraine’s foreign exchange market

In the first half of April, Ukraine’s foreign exchange market saw sustained elevated demand; however, the National Bank of Ukraine regularly supports the market through currency interventions, which curbs fluctuations toward hryvnia devaluation.

However, key factors putting pressure on the hryvnia remain, as high demand for foreign currency is fueled by importers’ contracts for fuel, which is becoming significantly more expensive due to the conflict in the Middle East. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the planting season has been proceeding at a brisk pace since the last ten days of March and continues to do so now, which also fuels demand for fuel and, accordingly, partly explains the specific dynamics of pricing in the fuel market. Contrary to analysts’ expectations, the war between Israel and the U.S. against Iran has not yet brought the parties to the negotiating table, but hopes for this in April are quite high, which is influencing the trajectory of oil prices and also putting pressure on the U.S. dollar.

Global Context

In April, the dollar is losing ground against the euro, and the DXY index shows that the US currency has depreciated by 2.2% over the past month.

Regarding Fed rates, the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled for late April. Recall that at the March meeting, the benchmark rate was left unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. At the upcoming April meeting, no surprises are expected, and thus rates are expected to remain at the same level. And this is despite the fact that it is already clear: the conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in energy prices and worsened economic prospects. However, Fed officials are waiting to assess how the economy reacts to the war in Iran. Consequently, financial markets are pricing in a 99% probability that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the April meeting. Currently, the financial world is concerned about who will become the next Fed chair, as Jerome Powell’s term as chair ends in May. The issue of the regulator’s independence is very important, as there are known attempts by the Donald Trump administration to pressure the Fed to lower rates in order to stimulate economic activity.

One of the most significant factors affecting the economy (both in the US and the EU) is the situation in the Middle East. The International Monetary Fund has already revised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 downward: expected global GDP growth will be 3.1% instead of the previously projected 3.3%.

The war in Iran is having a significant impact on the oil market—the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is having a serious effect. Oil prices began to fall only in mid-April: over the past two weeks, the price of Brent has dropped from around $108 per barrel to $95 per barrel. The reason is optimism amid potential peace talks between the U.S. and Iran: the U.S. president announced that Tehran had contacted Washington regarding a possible agreement. However, the problems in the oil market remain unresolved, and in its latest monthly report, the IEA stated that global oil supplies suffered “the largest disruption in history”: in March, they were reduced by 10.1 million barrels per day—to 97 million barrels per day.

Due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the U.S. dollar is experiencing high volatility. In mid-April, the EUR/USD exchange rate reached 1.1786, although it stood at 1.1520 as recently as late March. Meanwhile, the outlook for the pair’s future trajectory depends not only on the war but also on the inflationary spike expected in Europe due to rising oil prices and, consequently, fuel costs. There is a high probability that the ECB will raise interest rates as early as this summer. Although ECB President Christine Lagarde recently stated that the European Central Bank has not yet decided on the issue of raising interest rates, as the consequences of the war with Iran for the eurozone economy remain unclear.

The Domestic Ukrainian Context

In April, the Ukrainian foreign exchange market continues to be dominated by excess demand over supply. Fuel importers, whose prices continue to rise, have the greatest impact on demand. Earlier in March, the National Bank sold a fairly significant amount of currency on the interbank market—over $4.4 billion—while in February, for example, it sold $2.99 billion. However, interventions decreased somewhat in April: between April 6 and 10, they totaled $765.87 million. Thanks to the NBU’s participation in trading throughout March and then in the first half of April, the hryvnia managed to strengthen, and the exchange rate did not cross the psychological threshold of 44 UAH/USD.

In the cash market in April, demand for dollars and euros remained steady but declined significantly compared to the peak growth in March. Last month, cash currency purchases rose to $2.39 billion, while net cash currency purchases by the public in March amounted to $968 million. In April, thanks to a fairly stable exchange rate situation, there is no rush at cash desks and exchange offices, nor is there a shortage of cash dollars and euros.

In the macroeconomic sphere, Ukraine is in a rather difficult period of waiting. The first review of the International Monetary Fund program is scheduled for June 2026, and provided the review is successful, the fund will disburse the first tranche of $686 million. Meanwhile, the European Union has yet to resolve the issue of disbursing funds to Ukraine under a €90 billion loan program. These resources are critically important for the stability of the Ukrainian economy and for financing the budget deficit. However, the decision to grant the loan was previously blocked by the position of Hungary’s former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Recently, Péter Magyar, who became Hungary’s new prime minister, stated that the country would lift its veto on the €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine as soon as oil supplies from Ukraine to Hungary via the pipeline are restored. Oil supplies are expected to resume in May, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz that repair work on the pipeline would be completed by the end of April.

U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Trends and Analysis

In the first half of April, the hryvnia strengthened: while the NBU’s official exchange rate stood at 43.91 UAH/USD at the beginning of the month, it was 43.51 UAH/USD as of April 16. However, the interbank market was still influenced by increased demand, while supply was primarily shaped by interventions from the National Bank of Ukraine. The interbank rate stood at 43.85 UAH per dollar in early April and reached 43.44–43.5 UAH/dollar by mid-month.

In April, exchange rate fluctuations in the cash market stabilized, and the exchange rate moved toward a strengthening of the hryvnia. Overall, the buying rate for cash dollars in mid-April stood at 43.10–43.35 UAH/USD, whereas at the beginning of the month the buying rate was in the range of 43.40–43.60 UAH/USD. The selling rate for cash dollars in mid-April was 43.7–43.8 UAH/USD, while at the beginning of April, the selling rate at bank teller windows and currency exchange offices was in the range of 43.99–44.15 UAH/USD. As for the spreads between the buying and selling rates, they narrowed slightly—to 0.3–0.55 UAH/USD—which indicates a stabilization of the situation and a reduction in currency risk for institutions, and also suggests a positive outlook regarding the absence of panic demand for cash currency in the coming weeks.

Key influencing factors:

· Reduction in the volume of currency interventions by the NBU: The National Bank remains the main market maker in the foreign exchange market; however, in April, the regulator’s dollar sales volumes were already lower than in March, and exchange rate fluctuations were smoother.

· Strengthening of the hryvnia exchange rate in April: this was facilitated by a temporary decline in demand for foreign currency from importing companies, as well as a noticeable drop in demand in the cash market.

· International factors: The dollar is losing ground in the global market amid the complex situation in the Middle East and expectations of de-escalation between Iran and the U.S., which is driving investors back to euro-denominated assets.

· Market behavioral expectations: The dollar remains a stable, liquid asset in the domestic market, and the hryvnia’s short-term strengthening provides an incentive for active investment in this currency.

Forecast

· Short term (1–2 weeks): base range of 43.70–44.20 UAH/USD, with likely fluctuations toward hryvnia depreciation, though rebounds toward the national currency’s strengthening are also possible.

· Medium term (2–3 months): 44.20–44.85 UAH/USD. On the international market, fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate will be influenced by the situation in the Middle East and potential negotiations between Tehran and Washington. There is a high probability that the Fed will not change rates at least until summer, which will give investors confidence in the growth potential of the U.S. economy despite all the risks caused by the war in Iran. A trend toward dollar strengthening is possible, especially after the situation in the Middle East stabilizes.

· Long-term (6+ months): the baseline scenario is a devaluation of the hryvnia to 44.5–45.5 UAH/$. The national currency will remain under pressure from both external and internal factors, with the most significant being signals from partners regarding continued support for Ukraine, the receipt of a tranche from the IMF, and the $90 billion loan program from the EU.

Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis

In April, the euro’s exchange rate against the hryvnia rose due to the global trend of the euro strengthening and the U.S. dollar weakening, which correspondingly affected the euro’s exchange rate in Ukraine. April began with the official euro exchange rate at 50.45 UAH/EUR, and as of April 16, the rate reached 51.27 UAH/EUR.

Meanwhile, there was no increased demand for the euro in Ukraine’s cash market in April, as the stabilization of the dollar’s exchange rate on the interbank and cash markets dampened the frenzy. At currency exchange offices and bank teller windows, the euro exchange rate fluctuated as follows during the first half of April: in early April, the buying rate was 50.0–50.7 UAH/EUR and the selling rate was 51.0–51.2 UAH/EUR, while in mid-April, the buying rate rose to 50.85–51.0 UAH/EUR. The strengthening of the euro on the global market was also reflected in the selling rate for cash euros—the rate reached 51.5–51.8 UAH/EUR.

Spreads between exchange rates widened again in mid-April amid continued uncertainty regarding the euro’s trajectory on the global market; consequently, banks have again set spreads at 0.5–1 UAH/EUR instead of the previous 0.5–0.6 UAH/EUR.

Key influencing factors:

· The euro is strengthening on the international market amid a decline in the US dollar: the euro-dollar exchange rate rose to 1.1786 in April, which influenced the exchange rate trajectory on Ukraine’s domestic market.

· Investors are returning to euro-denominated assets as they lose confidence in the US dollar: the conflict in the Middle East is not over, and the ECB may raise rates as early as this summer due to inflationary pressures.

· Declining demand for the euro in Ukraine: The public bought a large amount of currency in March, and in early April, ahead of Easter celebrations, currency sales predominated as people made necessary preparations for the holiday. The stable hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate fostered expectations of no turmoil in the currency market, and demand for the euro fell.

Forecast:

· Short term (2–4 weeks): if the euro continues to strengthen on the global market, the euro may remain within the 51.0–51.90 UAH/€ range on the Ukrainian market.

· Medium term (2–4 months): the euro may appreciate to 52.5 UAH/€. Falling oil prices and updated data from the ECB on eurozone inflation could strengthen the euro’s position.

· Long term (6+ months): if negotiations between Iran and the U.S. are successful and following the Fed’s decision on the next rate cut, the exchange rate may settle within the range of 52.80–53.60 UAH/€.

Recommendations for businesses and investors

Geopolitical turbulence influences financial decisions and confidence in currency assets. Key directions of change will be determined by the negotiation track between Tehran and Washington. Investors need to monitor the news, especially statements from Iran.

Fed rates will influence the future exchange rate trajectory of the EUR/USD pair. Currently, traders are confident in rate stability, but Jerome Powell’s departure from the chairmanship in May could throw a wrench in the works.

The U.S. labor market as an indicator. Investors should study official publications from the U.S. Department of Labor to react in a timely manner to the high probability of another round of Fed rate cuts.

Oil prices move in tandem with currency quotes. A significant drop in oil prices would signal improved prospects for the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the potential for a slight decline in the euro’s exchange rate.

Focus on safe-haven assets. Geopolitical conflicts and high risks of a slowdown in the growth rates of the world’s major economies are making it increasingly relevant to invest in straightforward instruments, including the dollar and the euro.

ECB decisions will influence the euro exchange rate. As inflation rises in Europe, the ECB may raise base rates. This could weaken the euro’s position.

The key requirement is high liquidity. Investors can build their portfolios in various currencies, but given liquidity, the dollar and the euro remain the core assets. Other currencies that can be used in your strategy include the British pound, the Swiss franc, and the Polish zloty.

The US dollar is at the center of the currency strategy. Despite the uneven fluctuations of the dollar exchange rate on the global market, dollar holdings in a portfolio can range from 40% to 70%, as the dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency and the devaluation trends regarding hryvnia exchange rate fluctuations in Ukraine determine the absolute importance of dollar holdings.

The NBU’s discount rate as a signal for a short-term shift to the hryvnia. If the NBU raises the discount rate, a small portion of holdings can be reallocated to hryvnia-denominated assets—short-term deposits or government bonds. However, this involves investing approximately 10–15% of the portfolio.

What’s important in the news. First and foremost, information on negotiations between Iran and the U.S., oil market prices, new decisions by the Fed and the ECB, as well as analysis of inflation levels in Europe and the U.S. In Ukraine, the main drivers of currency market behavior will be the situation on the fuel market, possible large-scale shelling of infrastructure facilities by the aggressor, as well as news regarding the receipt of tranches from partners and creditors.

This material was prepared by analysts at KYT Group, an international multi-service product FinTech platform, and reflects their expert, analytical, and professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.

The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is,” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations regarding timeliness, or updates or supplements.

Users of this material must independently assess risks and make informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation using various available sources that they themselves deem sufficiently qualified. Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor.

ABOUT

KYT Group is an international multi-service product-based FinTech marketplace platform that provides financial companies with access to services for promoting their offerings, as well as advertising and consulting services.

Issue No. 1 – March 2026

The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation in Ukraine’s currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on up-to-date data. We examine current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios for future developments.

Analysis of the Current Situation in the Foreign Exchange Market

In March, Ukraine’s foreign exchange market entered a phase of increasing turbulence driven by both external and internal factors.

The exchange rate trajectory is consistently and quite rapidly moving toward hryvnia devaluation, with this trend significantly intensifying in the first half of March. The focus in March is on the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which is causing increased turbulence in the fuel market and contributing to the weakness of the euro. In Ukraine’s domestic market, there has been a sharp rise in demand for the dollar and the euro, while the National Bank is trying to balance high demand for foreign currency with the need to maintain international reserves at a sufficient level. Meanwhile, inflation is gaining momentum, and Ukraine’s receipt of the promised €90 billion from the EU is being delayed due to the outright dissatisfaction of Hungary and Slovakia.

Global Context

In global markets, the dollar is strengthening against a backdrop of a weakening euro. The DXY index shows that the U.S. currency has appreciated by 3.33% over the past month, while the euro is losing ground.

The main trigger is the situation in the fuel market, caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices have surged sharply as Iran has intensified attacks on oil and transportation facilities across the Middle East, fueling fears about the duration of the conflict and potential disruptions in oil supplies. The price of Brent crude rose in mid-March to over $101.40 per barrel. Moreover, the price of oil was unaffected by the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) announcement of its intention to release a record 400 million barrels of oil to mitigate the economic impact of the war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Currently, investors are concerned that the global economy will take longer to recover if attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz continue. Some analysts have already forecast that oil prices could rise to $140 per barrel in the coming weeks.

The EUR/USD pair experienced several significant fluctuations in March, but the dollar has managed to strengthen its position. While the month began at 1.1766, by mid-March the U.S. currency had reached 1.1445. The euro is losing ground due to its economy’s reliance on fuel imports from other regions.

Investors currently view the dollar as a safe haven, especially given that the U.S. is a major energy exporter. The longer the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasts, the higher the chances of the dollar strengthening against the euro.

However, it is not only the situation in the Middle East that plays a role in potential fluctuations in the exchange rates of major currencies. Investors are awaiting decisions from central banks: will the Fed and the ECB react to the situation and will they change key interest rates?

Expectations regarding decisions in March are quite subdued. The point is that the European Central Bank may raise rates, but not before June. And the U.S. Federal Reserve, whose Committee meeting will take place in late March, may even postpone consideration of a change in the base rate until September. However, everything will depend on the latest data on inflation and the situation in the U.S. labor market.

New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, while inflation in the U.S. remained stable—consumer prices rose by 2.4% in February (year-over-year). However, a war between the U.S. and Iran could trigger an acceleration of inflation to over 3% in the coming months, so uncertainty regarding the Fed’s potential rate decisions is growing, and investors are focused on how the conflict in the Middle East will affect price dynamics.

Domestic Ukrainian Context

In March, the Ukrainian foreign exchange market saw rising demand in both the non-cash and cash segments. The increase in importers’ needs is linked both to purchases of energy equipment required for repairs to energy infrastructure and to a growing need for foreign currency to purchase fuel, as Ukraine is an importer of gasoline and diesel and contracts for the necessary volumes of fuel in European Union countries.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 5% in February and, as of March 1, 2026, stood at $54.75 billion according to preliminary data. The National Bank explained that this trend was driven by the NBU’s currency interventions and the country’s debt payments in foreign currency, and these transactions were only partially offset by inflows from international partners and from the placement of government bonds. The current level of international reserves is sufficient to finance 5.7 months of future imports.

The clear devaluation trend is driving increased demand for cash currency among the public. To prevent a cash currency shortage in the market, the NBU conducted several operations in March to exchange banks’ non-cash currency for cash currency to replenish cash reserves. Consequently, banks have sufficient reserves of foreign currency, and there is no shortage of cash dollars or euros. The NBU reported that it is monitoring the situation and is ready to support banks in supplying cash foreign currency to their teller windows.

As for international aid, it is still unknown when Ukraine will receive the first tranche of the €90 billion approved by the EU as part of its support for 2025–2027. Hungary and Slovakia’s stance is standing in the way. However, the European Union is discussing another option to help Ukraine—providing a bilateral loan of €30 billion, which would not require approval from all EU members.

The domestic currency market is under some pressure because, on the one hand, rising prices for petroleum products are stimulating increased currency purchases on the interbank market, while on the other hand, amid uncertainty regarding further aid tranches from the EU and other partners, the National Bank cannot flood the market with interventions to curb devaluation.

U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Trends and Analysis

During the first half of March, the U.S. dollar strengthened on the Ukrainian currency market. The official exchange rate stood at 43.2 UAH per dollar at the beginning of the month, and by the end of the second week of March, it had already reached 44.14 UAH/USD. The interbank market is moving upward in fairly sharp spurts: while March began with a rate of 43.21 UAH per dollar, by March 13, trading was taking place within the 44.12–44.17 UAH/USD range.

The cash market saw devaluation fluctuations in March. The buying rate reached the 43.80–44.10 UAH/USD range in the middle of the month, while the selling rate remained within 44.35–44.60 UAH/USD.

The dynamics of spreads between buying, selling, and the official rate indicate that banks are anticipating further exchange rate fluctuations and are therefore factoring in additional premiums and risks into their rates. The lack of predictability and balance is reflected in the widening of spreads between buying and selling rates in the cash market to 0.45–0.60 UAH/USD.

Key influencing factors:

· Rising demand for foreign currency in the interbank market: importers are increasing their currency purchases, particularly amid rising oil prices.

· Support for the currency market from the National Bank: The NBU responds to spikes in demand with interventions, and the NBU also supports bank tellers to ensure the necessary volumes of foreign currency cash.

· International factors: the strengthening of the dollar in the global market (the DXY index has risen by 3.33% over the past month) is increasing pressure on the hryvnia, compounded by the oil factor, as rising oil prices are driving additional demand for foreign currency, causing demand to grow.

· Market behavioral expectations: The dollar remains the primary asset in the domestic market, with demand rising significantly, fueled by the exchange rate breaking through the psychological threshold of 44 UAH/USD.

Forecast

· Short term (1–2 weeks): base range of 43.90–44.30 UAH/USD, with a likely bias toward 44.20 UAH/USD.

· Medium term (2–3 months): 44.30–44.90 UAH/USD. On the international market, the dollar’s strengthening will be influenced by expectations of stability in the Fed’s rate decisions, as well as the situation in the Middle East. Hostilities in Iran are driving up oil prices, which is seriously weakening the euro’s position.

· Long-term (6+ months): The baseline scenario projects a devaluation of the hryvnia to 44.4–45.5 UAH/USD. Key influencing factors will include the situation on the front lines in Ukraine, the resolution of the issue regarding the arrival of the first tranche of financial aid from the EU to Ukraine, the gap between state budget revenues and expenditures, and the extent of the dollar’s strengthening in the global market.

Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis

In the first half of March, the euro-to-hryvnia exchange rate fell, driven by rising global energy prices and investors’ return to the dollar as a safe-haven asset. The corresponding strengthening of the dollar was also reflected in the value of the euro in Ukraine, where the month began with an official exchange rate of 51.02 UAH/EUR, and by mid-month the rate reached 50.66 UAH/EUR.

In the cash segment, the euro exchange rate remained virtually unchanged during the first two weeks of March, driven by relatively high demand.

At the beginning of the month, the euro buying rate at banks and currency exchange offices was 50.3–50.7 UAH/EUR, and the selling rate was 51.3–51.4 UAH/EUR; by mid-March, the euro buying rate stood at 50.2–50.70 UAH/EUR, and the selling rate was 51.1–51.50 UAH/EUR.

Banks factor their risks and the high volatility of the euro into their rates, which is why spreads are widening: in mid-March, the spread between the euro’s buying and selling rates was 0.65–1 UAH/EUR.

Key influencing factors:

· Global weakening of the euro: The euro-to-dollar exchange rate fell to 1.1445 in mid-March, which also affected the euro’s trajectory in the Ukrainian domestic market.

· Expectations of unchanged Fed monetary policy: The dollar is bolstering investor confidence that the benchmark rate will not be changed in March; the international situation and rising oil prices are also weighing on the euro.

· Inflation in the EU may rise due to higher energy prices: this could influence the ECB’s monetary decisions but will not prevent the euro from weakening.

· High demand for cash currency in Ukraine: The NBU is supplying banks with cash to prevent a shortage in the cash market.

Forecast

· Short term (2–4 weeks): given external factors and stable demand, the euro exchange rate may remain within the range of 50.85–51.70 UAH/€.

· Medium term (2–4 months): a break above 52.5 UAH/€ is likely, especially in the event of a sharp strengthening of the dollar in the global market.

· Long-term (6+ months): provided that inflation rises in the EU and the US and central banks decide to adjust benchmark rates, as well as if high oil prices persist for an extended period, a rise to levels above 53.00–53.50 UAH/€ is likely.

Recommendations for businesses and investors

March and April will be full of exchange rate “surprises,” as exchange rate trajectories may be quite volatile and move in different directions. Given the high risks for investors due to the instability of the global security situation and the overheated oil market, currency strategy must remain cautious and flexible, while also accounting for various possible scenarios.

Security – the top priority. Financial instruments are needed that allow for a quick response to a paradigm shift. This means avoiding fixed-term deposits without the option of early termination, as well as focusing on preserving assets without losses, which typically involves holding cash reserves in foreign currency.

Liquidity – a fundamental requirement. Currency assets should be held in liquid currencies, with the dollar and euro remaining the primary ones. However, investors seeking to diversify risks should also consider Swiss francs and British pounds.

The dollar is the cornerstone of currency strategy. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar reinforces the view that dollar holdings should account for at least 50% of an investor’s currency portfolio. The hryvnia’s depreciation trend underscores the importance of holding funds in dollars and, due to uneven exchange rate fluctuations, offers opportunities for short-term speculative trades.

The euro – the decline may turn into growth. Currently, the euro’s exchange rate dynamics are driven by the conflict in the Middle East and the situation in the oil market. However, in the long term, the euro may regain its footing if oil prices stabilize and inflationary pressures in Europe ease. In a balanced currency portfolio, it is advisable to hold about 30% of assets in euros.

Spreads—one of the indicators for decision-making. In the spring of 2026, spreads are widening in both the USD/UAH and EUR/UAH pairs. This is a consequence of high uncertainty and risks faced by market operators, who are factoring in potential high volatility into their exchange rates. For investors in such a situation, it is important not to make hasty moves, but when a narrow spread is present, to consider a quick currency purchase.

It’s time to focus on the euro. The international situation is working against the euro, but for domestic investors, the cheap euro presents a favorable opportunity to enter into euro-denominated investments. If a business model uses the euro as its base currency, it is advisable to factor in potential scenarios where the exchange rate rises above 51.5 UAH/€ in contracts.

The lack of precise exchange rate benchmarks is a reason to update your strategy, not to make hasty decisions. The unpredictability of the exchange rate trajectory creates the impression of a quick profit opportunity. However, it is important to work through several scenarios to avoid getting too carried away with risky speculative transactions.

The hryvnia is for current payments and expenses, not for long-term savings. The hryvnia exchange rate is steadily falling: in January, the interbank market tested the 42.19 UAH/USD level, and in March—44.17 UAH/USD. It makes sense to convert hryvnia holdings into one of the liquid currencies, particularly the dollar and the euro.

What’s important in the news. First and foremost, information about events in the Middle East, oil price dynamics, as well as decisions by the Fed and the ECB. In the domestic market, additional exchange rate spikes are possible due to changes in the energy sector and the receipt of new tranches of international loans and financial aid from partners.

This material was prepared by analysts at KYT Group, an international multi-service product FinTech platform, and reflects their expert, analytical, and professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.

The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is,” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations regarding timeliness, or updates or supplements.

Users of this material must independently assess risks and make informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation using various available sources that they themselves deem sufficiently qualified. Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor.

ABOUT

KYT Group is an international multi-service product-based FinTech marketplace platform that provides financial companies with access to services for promoting their offerings, as well as advertising and consulting services.

Issue No. 1 – February 2026

The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on current data. We consider the current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.

Analysis of the current situation on the currency market

International context

After the Fed left its key rate unchanged at the end of January, the number of forecasts for the rate to remain at its current level for the next few months increased in the US. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls in the US rose by 130,000 in January, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%. This indicates that interest rates are likely to remain unchanged, because if the labor market is improving, there are no fears of a market slowdown, which was a significant reason for the Fed to cut rates last year.

Recall that at the end of January, the Fed Committee left the central bank’s base interest rate in the range of 3.50-3.75% after lowering it at each of the last three meetings in 2025. Moreover, the higher-than-expected job growth in January may give the Fed confidence that the labor market is stabilizing and motivate the central bank to focus on controlling inflation, which remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The US consumer price index rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year in December last year, which is stable compared to November 2025.

As for the economy, US GDP grew by 4.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, and this pace is expected to slow slightly during 2026, but still exceed 2%. Some economists believe that the next Fed rate cut is unlikely before mid-June 2026. However, everything will depend on labor market indicators and inflation rates in the US. Interestingly, according to media reports, in his five speeches on the economy since December, Donald Trump has claimed that inflation has been overcome and prices have fallen almost 30 times, which, of course, contradicts the actual economic data.

As for the EUR/USD pair, during the first half of February, the dollar managed to strengthen slightly compared to January, reaching 1.1874. This was facilitated by both the Fed’s decision to leave the rate unchanged and the optimistic US labor market indicators and investors’ hopes that inflation would not exceed the forecast for this year. However, there is no certainty about the Fed’s future policy, and some analysts have already suggested that the Fed may start cutting rates more aggressively, causing the dollar to fall by 10% during 2026. Among the risk factors that will affect the dollar is the change in the Fed’s leadership, as many believe that the successor to current Chairman Jerome Powell will face pressure from President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs, leading to several rate cuts in 2026.

Meanwhile, in Europe, the ECB is keeping key rates unchanged, and most economists say the central bank will stick to this policy throughout 2026. The fact is that inflation in the eurozone is considered to be under control, although there are risks of a decline amid the strengthening of the euro. With interest rates already low at 2% and inflation hovering around the ECB’s 2% target, the ECB is in no hurry to change its monetary policy. The strong euro is not particularly pleasing to Europeans, as it makes imports cheaper for buyers in the eurozone, which affects inflation, and further strengthening of the euro could potentially require changes in rates. However, the EU is currently stable, and the economy is performing even better than expected: GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 grew by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter, exceeding Bloomberg’s consensus forecast by 0.2%.

Internal Ukrainian context

In the first half of February, there was no stress on the Ukrainian currency market, and the hryvnia depreciated insignificantly against the US dollar: at the beginning of the month, the official exchange rate was 42.84 UAH/USD, and at the end of the second week of February, it was 43.03 UAH/USD. The slow fluctuation was traditionally facilitated by NBU interventions: since the beginning of January, according to official NBU data, the regulator has injected more than $4.33 billion into the market.

Inflation rates in Ukraine are declining. The NBU forecasts that inflation will be 7.5% at the end of 2026 and will remain close to the 5% target in the future, reaching it in 2028. The economy will grow by 1.8% in 2026, and in the following years, the recovery will accelerate to 3-4% per year. National Bank experts believe that inflation will decline in the coming months, primarily due to the residual effects of crop growth in 2025. At the same time, the consequences of large-scale destruction in the energy sector will put pressure on prices through both market and administrative mechanisms.

The NBU’s Inflation Report for January 2026 states that international aid will be sufficient to finance the budget deficit without resorting to debt issuance. The NBU has left its assumption regarding the budget deficit in 2026 unchanged at around 19% of GDP, which is in line with the State Budget Law. The NBU assumes that Ukraine will receive $51.4 billion from international partners in 2026, $42.7 billion in 2027, and $21.6 billion in 2028. This will allow international reserves to be maintained at a sufficient level to support the stability of the currency market. The main hopes for supporting the state budget this year are linked to the EU Council’s decision to allocate €90 billion to Ukraine in 2026 and 2027, as well as the current ERA Loans mechanism.

As of early February, Ukraine’s international reserves had grown to $57.66 billion. According to the National Bank, in January, they increased by $357.8 million compared to December, primarily due to external financing, which offset the National Bank’s net currency sales and the country’s debt payments in foreign currency. The current volume of international reserves provides financing for six months of future imports.

US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis

General characteristics of market behavior

During the first half of February, the US dollar strengthened on the Ukrainian currency market. At the beginning of the month, the interbank exchange rate was at 42.9 UAH/USD, and on February 12, it was already at 43.05 UAH/USD.

On the cash market, there were slight devaluation fluctuations between February 1 and 13, and the purchase rate in mid-February reached a range of 42.59–42.85 UAH/USD, while the sale rate remained within 43.15–43.4 UAH/USD. Meanwhile, at bank cash desks and exchange offices, the spread between the buying and selling rates changed only slightly compared to January, amounting to 0.5–0.6 UAH/USD.

Key influencing factors

· International context. The dollar began to strengthen against the euro due to growing investor optimism about inflation and the apparent trend toward improvement in the labor market, which promises predictable Fed policy and no sharp changes in rates in the near future.

· International reserves are at a high level: as of early February 2026, they reached USD 57.66 billion.

· The National Bank supports the currency market with regular interventions: the interbank exchange rate is gradually weakening without any sharp movements, and since the beginning of the year, the NBU has injected more than $4.33 billion into the market.

Forecast

· Short term (1–2 weeks): base range of 43.3–43.8 UAH/USD with possible fluctuations towards a weaker hryvnia.

· Medium term (2–3 months): 43.50–44.60 UAH/USD. The dollar is expected to gradually strengthen on the international market due to the stabilization of the labor market and decent macroeconomic data, as well as the absence of sharp changes in the Fed’s policy on the base rate. In Ukraine, the hryvnia exchange rate will be influenced by the level of demand for currency on the interbank market, which may increase in February–March, in particular due to another series of massive enemy attacks on energy facilities, which will lead to the need to purchase expensive imported equipment. The exchange rate will also be influenced by the situation on the front lines and political statements and forecasts regarding the possible end of the full-scale war.

· Long term (6+ months): a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia against the dollar is expected, as well as regular and large-scale support for the market through currency interventions by the NBU. The benchmark for the first half of 2026 is 43.5–44.95 UAH/$.

Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis

General characteristics of market behavior

During the first half of February, the euro fluctuated on the Ukrainian market: initially, the hryvnia strengthened against the euro, and the official euro exchange rate at the beginning of February was 51.24 UAH/EUR, and five days later it was already 50.89 UAH/EUR. However, in the middle of the month, the euro began to strengthen and reached 51.20 UAH/EUR. In the cash segment, the euro also fell in January. While at the beginning of February, the euro purchase rate in banks and exchange offices was 51 UAH/EUR, and the sale rate was 51.95 UAH/EUR, in mid-February, the purchase rate was 50.8 UAH/EUR, and the sale rate was 51.45 UAH/EUR.

Key observations

· Exchange rate geometry: The selling rate for cash euros in mid-February 2026 is at the level of 51.29–51.50 UAH/EUR.

The dynamics of the euro exchange rate were influenced by the strengthening of the dollar on the international market, as well as the narrowing of the spread between the buying and selling rates to 0.2–0.4 UAH/EUR.

· Supply and demand: Demand for the euro fell slightly on the interbank market in February 2026, and demand for the euro also declined on the cash market in Ukraine. Between February 10 and 12 alone, the euro exchange rate on the interbank market fell from 51.37 UAH/EUR to 51.03 UAH/EUR.

Key influencing factors

· Global context: The euro is falling against the US dollar, which is strengthening in February amid optimistic forecasts for the development of the US economy.

· Domestic market: the euro continues to follow the dollar in the direction of strengthening, but the pace of the euro’s strengthening is currently quite limited, which is explained, in particular, by the relatively low level of demand.

· Behavioral factor: in Ukraine, there is no rush demand for the euro in mid-February, and spreads between exchange rates are steadily narrowing. However, everything may change if the recent massive shelling of energy infrastructure leads to an increase in the need to purchase equipment in the EU for euros, which will play on the growth in demand and, accordingly, lead to new exchange rate jumps.

Forecast

· Short term (1–2 weeks): the euro on the interbank market will remain in the range of 51.2–51.8 UAH/€ with a tendency to move towards the upper limit.

· Medium term (2–3 months): no significant strengthening of the dollar is expected on the international market, so the euro will remain strong. In Ukraine, the euro exchange rate will be influenced by demand for the euro due to the need to import from the EU, but relatively low demand on the cash market will not allow the euro exchange rate to deviate significantly from the interbank market.

The exchange rate benchmark is 51.6–54.5 UAH/EUR.

· Long term (6+ months): the euro may rise to 54.8–56.5 UAH/EUR in the first half of 2026.

Recommendations: dollar or euro — buy, sell, or wait?

USD/UAH

The dollar is strengthening on the international market thanks to optimistic expectations and updated data on the labor market and inflation, which showed stable development of the US economy and a reduction in risks. However, “black swans” in the form of a change in the Fed’s leadership and further pressure from Donald Trump on the central bank to implement a significant reduction in rates during 2026 cannot be ruled out.

Overall, the dollar looks quite vulnerable, given the unpredictability of President Trump’s policies and possible new tariff surprises from the US. However, positive sentiment prevails for now, which is reflected in the value of defensive assets.

In Ukraine, the hryvnia is under strong pressure from increased demand for foreign currency, and economic risks associated with the war, destroyed energy infrastructure, and the lack of even partial predictability of further developments in the hostilities do not give the national currency much room for strengthening. Building up savings in dollars will remain the basis for investors throughout 2026 as part of both medium- and long-term strategies. The expected weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate only adds to the appeal of accumulating dollars. Speculative income can be obtained both from fluctuations in the hryvnia against the dollar and from frequent and irregular fluctuations in the euro exchange rate.

EUR/UAH

The euro has been losing ground in recent weeks, but this is not a signal to exit euro savings, as the main forecasts for 2026 are still linked to the strengthening of the euro, although significant fluctuations cannot be ruled out. It is precisely these fluctuations that will allow investors to profitably enter into investments in euros and also exit them with a profit, especially when it comes to a medium-term strategy. The liquidity of the euro will remain high thanks to the stable development of the eurozone economy and the ECB’s predictable conservative strategy.

Overall strategy

The Federal Reserve is not currently planning any changes to the base rate, which was left unchanged at the last meeting at the end of January.

Optimistic sentiments about the active development of the US economy are motivating investors to return to dollar assets, and the dollar’s exchange rate against the euro is gradually strengthening. However, the temporary stability is fragile, and further fluctuations in the other direction are possible in the near future. Unlike the US, the EU economy is moving slowly but surely towards growth, and inflation in the eurozone is more controlled and predictable. All this gives reason to expect uneven and multidirectional fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate in the coming months.

Ukraine has accumulated a large amount of international reserves, sufficient for six months of imports, and has planned amounts of aid from partner countries, which are positive factors that may somewhat curb the devaluation trend. However, in the long term, the hryvnia will weaken in 2026 due to the ongoing war of attrition, problems with the state budget deficit, and negative investor expectations regarding the economic situation. Nevertheless, the pace of devaluation will be controlled by the NBU, which will remain the main player in the currency market. The NBU will carry out currency interventions to the extent necessary to meet demand and prevent sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. In this situation, investors should focus on their own currency strategies, planning to buy dollars and euros in a timely manner, which will be the base currencies of their portfolios and will allow them to carry out profitable currency exchange transactions at any convenient time.

This material has been prepared by analysts at KYT Group, an international multi-service FinTech platform, and reflects their expert, analytical, and professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.

The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no responsibility for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional guarantees of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updating or supplementation.

Users of this material should independently assess the risks and make informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they themselves consider sufficiently qualified. Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor.

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