The Ukrainian economy in 2026 maintains relative macrofinancial stability thanks to international support and the adaptation of businesses to wartime conditions. However, low GDP growth rates, an increasing foreign trade deficit and a shortage of labor resources remain the main obstacles to its recovery.
This is stated in an analytical review of the main economic indicators of Ukraine and the world, presented on November 6, 2026, by Maksym Urakin, Director of Development and Marketing at the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
The study mainly covers indicators for January-July 2026 and the second quarter, as well as certain statistical revisions published after the end of the reporting period.
According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s real GDP increased by only 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the same period of the previous year. At the same time, compared with the first quarter, taking seasonal factors into account, the economy grew by 0.3%.
Thus, after contracting by 0.6% in the first quarter, the Ukrainian economy returned to positive dynamics, but the pace of recovery remains insufficient for the rapid restoration of production potential.
In July, the National Bank of Ukraine raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.8%, while for 2027-2028 it expected growth to accelerate to approximately 2.8-3% annually.
Foreign trade remains one of the main challenges. According to the State Customs Service, Ukraine’s trade turnover in January-July 2026 amounted to $82.2 billion, including exports of $24.1 billion and imports of $58.1 billion. The merchandise trade deficit reached approximately $34 billion.
China remained the largest supplier of goods to Ukraine, with products worth $16.8 billion imported from the country. Poland ranked next with $5.5 billion, followed by Germany with $3.8 billion.
The main markets for Ukrainian products were Poland, Turkey and Germany. At the same time, food products accounted for approximately 58.5% of Ukraine’s total merchandise exports.
According to Urakin, to reduce the structural trade deficit, Ukraine needs to increase the production of high-value-added goods, develop the processing industry and create new export capacities.
International reserves remain an important factor in macrofinancial stability. As of August 1, 2026, their volume amounted to $51.2 billion, remaining virtually unchanged in July.
At the same time, the National Bank sold approximately $4.76 billion on the foreign exchange market during the month, indicating the economy’s significant need for foreign currency.
The inflation situation also remains difficult. In July, consumer prices increased by 7.7% year-on-year, compared with 7.2% in June. Core inflation stood at 8.1%, while services inflation reached 13.7%.
In the budgetary sphere, defense financing remained the main priority. Over seven months, UAH 1.63 trillion, or 63.2% of expenditures from the general fund of the state budget, was allocated to security and defense.
At the same time, international grant assistance credited to the general fund amounted to UAH 569.6 billion.
Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt reached UAH 9.57 trillion, or approximately $214.2 billion, at the end of July. At the same time, the predominance of concessional international financing helps contain the cost of servicing this debt.
Despite the difficult economic situation, certain sectors demonstrated positive dynamics. In particular, agricultural production in January-July increased by 17.2% compared with the same period in 2025.
The average nominal wage in July amounted to UAH 32,243, which was 21.7% higher than a year earlier.
At the same time, employers continue to face a shortage of qualified workers, primarily in industry, construction and logistics.
The review also analyzes the economic situation in the United States, the European Union, China, India, the United Kingdom, Turkey and Brazil.
According to the International Monetary Fund’s July forecast, the global economy was expected to grow by 3% in 2026 and by 3.4% in 2027.
In the second quarter of 2026, the eurozone economy, according to revised data, increased by 0.6% compared with the previous quarter, while the UK’s GDP grew by 0.4%.
China recorded economic growth of 4.7% in the first half of the year, while India’s GDP increased by 7.8% year-on-year in April-June.
At the same time, annual inflation in Turkey remained at 31.75% in July, significantly exceeding the figures recorded in most other major economies.
According to the founder of Experts Club, global trends confirm the growing importance of technological development, industrial modernization and investment in production.
For Ukraine, the localization of production, development of the defense-industrial complex, agricultural processing, mechanical engineering, energy autonomy and digital technologies remain particularly important.
Urakin believes that Ukraine’s future economic policy should be aimed not only at covering current budgetary needs but also at creating new productive assets capable of ensuring long-term growth.
In his assessment, it is precisely the transition from dependence on external financing to the development of domestic production and exports of high-value-added products that should become the foundation for the sustainable postwar recovery of the Ukrainian economy.
Maksym Urakin’s full analytical review, “Main Economic Indicators of Ukraine and the World as of Late July – Early August,” was published on November 6, 2026, on the website of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
Source: Interfax-Ukraine, analytical review dated November 6, 2026.
Kredobank, which serves more than 70% of Polish-owned companies operating in Ukraine, officially opened a representative office in Warsaw on November 5. The bank is expanding its presence in Poland, where its parent group, PKO Bank Polski, holds a leading position in the financial market. The new representative office will work with Ukrainian and Polish companies and institutions and will also facilitate business contacts between Ukraine and Poland.
Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Kredobank has provided Ukrainian businesses with nearly 40 billion UAH in new loans. The financing covers companies in various industries that continue to operate, maintain production, and invest in development despite the risks of war. In 2026 (from January through September), the bank issued 18.5 billion UAH in business loans, of which 44% went to small and medium-sized businesses and 56% to the corporate segment.
“Despite all the challenges, the Ukrainian economy continues to demonstrate resilience and function amid the war. Our responsibility as a bank is to support Ukrainian businesses by providing them with the financial instruments and solutions necessary both for operating in Ukraine and for entering international markets. For Kredobank, Ukrainian-Polish economic cooperation is not a new area of focus. We have been consistently working in this direction for many years. And opening a representative office in Warsaw is a natural next step,” said Jakub Karnowski, Chairman of the Board of Kredobank.
Kredobank’s representative office in Warsaw will have two main areas of focus. The first is to represent Kredobank in Poland and develop contacts with local financial institutions, government agencies, business associations, and other organizations. The second is to facilitate cooperation between Polish and Ukrainian companies by helping them establish business contacts and navigate the opportunities of the Ukrainian market. The representative office will perform representative functions and will not provide banking services in Poland.
Kredobank is opening a representative office in Warsaw to support the development of economic cooperation between Ukraine and the European Union by building lasting bridges for dialogue, partnership, knowledge exchange, and the development of business relations.
As of November 6, 2026, offer prices for imported liquefied gas at the Polish-Ukrainian border exceeded $1,500 per metric ton, while at southern border crossings, the wholesale price of the resource approached a similar level.
The A-95 Consulting Group reported this on November 6, noting that the price increase is linked to a reduction in global propane and butane supply, changes in international trade flows, and rising logistics costs.
According to analysts, the deterioration of the situation in the global liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market is driven by reduced production in the Persian Gulf countries and disruptions to maritime shipments resulting from attacks on civilian vessels.
This has led to a decline in exports from the Middle East, which traditionally supplies a significant portion of Asian consumers’ needs.
As a result, Asian countries have intensified competition with European importers for American liquefied gas, causing a further increase in international prices.
According to “A-95,” in October 2026, 568,000 metric tons of liquefied natural gas were shipped from the U.S. to Northwestern Europe, which is 17% less than during the same period last year.
Amid the supply shortage, October prices for propane in the region rose by $173 per metric ton, while butane prices increased by $345 per metric ton.
A similar trend is observed in the Mediterranean market, where prices set by the Algerian energy company Sonatrach remain one of the key price benchmarks.
Specifically, in October, Sonatrach’s propane prices rose by $155 per metric ton, while butane prices increased by $300 per metric ton.
For Ukraine, the situation is complicated by a shortage of the resource in the markets of neighboring European countries, primarily Romania, Poland, and Lithuania.
These countries remain the main sources of imported automotive gas, so the rise in their domestic prices directly affects the purchase cost of fuel for Ukrainian traders.
Additional factors driving up prices include security risks associated with maritime transport in the Black Sea and long wait times for road transport at border crossings.
According to estimates by “A-95,” current wholesale prices are setting the stage for a further increase in the retail price of autogas in Ukraine.
In October, the average price of this fuel at Ukrainian gas stations rose by 13.75 UAH/liter to 57.66 UAH/liter, and by early November, it had approached 60 UAH/liter.
Experts do not rule out that in the second half of November, prices at certain gas station chains could reach 66 UAH/liter if high import prices persist.
Sonatrach is Algeria’s state-owned oil and gas company and one of Africa’s leading producers and exporters of energy resources. Its price benchmarks for propane and butane are used by participants in the Mediterranean liquefied gas market.
Retail prices for automotive liquefied petroleum gas in Ukraine may rise to 66 UAH per liter at certain gas station chains in the second half of November 2026 due to a global shortage of the resource, rising import costs, and logistical challenges.
This was reported by the “A-95” Consulting Group in a press release dated November 6, based on the results of monitoring the Ukrainian and European fuel markets.
According to analysts, during October, the average retail price of autogas in Ukraine increased by 13.75 UAH/liter, to 57.66 UAH/liter. Thus, in just one month, the price of the fuel rose by approximately 31%.
As of November 6, the average price of liquefied gas at Ukrainian gas stations approached 60 UAH/liter.
Experts cite limited supply of propane and butane on the global market as the main reason for the price increase. Reduced production in the Gulf countries and disruptions to maritime transport due to security risks have led to a decrease in supplies from the Middle East.
As a result, Asian buyers, who traditionally purchase significant volumes of liquefied gas in this region, have begun to compete more actively with European consumers for American supplies.
At the same time, on the Ukrainian market, additional pressure on prices is being created by a shortage of liquefied gas in Poland, Romania, and Lithuania, which are the main sources of autogas imports into Ukraine.
The situation is complicated by rising transportation costs due to security risks in the Black Sea and queues at road border crossings.
According to “A-95,” as of November 6, offer prices for imported autogas at the Polish-Ukrainian border exceeded $1,500 per metric ton. At southern border crossings, the wholesale price also approached $1,500 per metric ton.
“Given the current offer prices for imported autogas, prices at certain gas station chains may rise to 66 UAH/liter in the second half of the month,” the “A-95” Consulting Group notes.
The forecast refers to possible price levels at specific chains, not the average price of autogas across Ukraine.
The “A-95” Consulting Group specializes in research on the Ukrainian petroleum products market, price monitoring, and analysis of fuel imports and fuel logistics.
Spain is providing Ukraine with a new military aid package totaling EUR437 million to strengthen the country’s defense capabilities, according to a statement from the press office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy following his meeting with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in Madrid on Thursday.
“This year, Russia has damaged more of our locomotives than in all previous years of this war combined. The power grid and water supply are under constant attack. The situation is difficult, especially in Kyiv, and every step of humanitarian support is also very important,” Zelenskyy said.
During the meeting, the leaders discussed the details of the new defense package, the allocation of which was announced by Sánchez, as well as Ukraine’s most pressing defense needs amid Russian strikes on energy, logistics, and railway infrastructure.
The President of Ukraine thanked the Spanish government for its consistent support throughout the years of full-scale war and expressed his condolences regarding the train crash in Toledo, Spain, which claimed dozens of lives.
“Every day, Russia kills our people, and Ukrainians know just how painful every loss of life is,” Zelenskyy added.
Edmonton, Canada. On October 28–31, 2026, the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies (CIUS) at the University of Alberta hosted an international symposium titled Recentring the Humanities: Ukraine and the World. The three-day discussion centered on how the experiences of Ukraine and Ukrainians around the world are reshaping contemporary understandings of global history, society, and culture.
Following the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine found itself at the center of international attention. Symposium participants examined how Ukraine’s growing geopolitical and cultural significance has influenced scholarly discourse itself.
Discussions focused, in particular, on whose testimonies historians rely on, how the experiences of indigenous peoples are reshaping notions of the nation, and the place of Ukrainian studies within the humanities. The symposium brought together internationally renowned scholars, human rights activists—including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Oleksandra Matviychuk—diplomats, and representatives of several international initiatives. The discussions in Edmonton were accessible online.
Historians Yaroslav Hrytsak and Serhii Plokhy, along with literary scholar Tamara Gundorova, opened the discussion on Ukraine and the global humanities. The discussion was moderated by KIUS Director Natalia Khanenko-Friesen. In the evening, Metropolitan Boris Gudziak delivered a lecture at the Horowitz Theater at the University of Alberta on the challenges and opportunities facing the global Ukrainian community.
A separate plenary session was dedicated to the indigenous peoples of Ukraine. Participants included Alim Aliyev, Rory Finnin, Martin-Oleksandr Kyslyi, and Yanush Panchenko. As Natalia Khanenko-Friesen explained, the inclusion of Crimean Tatar studies in the program reflected the broader question of how to define Ukrainian studies today.
“We deliberately paid special attention to the Crimean Tatar theme in the symposium program. Crimean Tatar studies are of fundamental importance to Ukrainian studies. Without them, it is impossible to rethink the very concept of Ukrainian studies. To understand who Ukrainians are, one must understand who the Crimean Tatars are and be familiar with the history and experiences of Ukraine’s other indigenous peoples and cultural communities,” said KIUS Director Natalia Khanenko-Friesen.
The issue of justice in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine was discussed by human rights activist Oleksandra Matviychuk, Chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People Refat Chubarov, and researcher Kristina Guk. Another plenary discussion, featuring historian Marcy Shore, philosopher Volodymyr Yermolenko, and literary scholar Vitaliy Chernetskyi, focused on how Ukraine’s experience is prompting scholars to rethink their approaches to understanding and interpreting the world.
Young scholars also presented their research in a “toloka” format. Separate sessions were devoted to the future of historical scholarship in Ukraine and to countering propaganda that uses the past as a weapon. A discussion on Ukraine’s place in the world, featuring Ukraine’s Ambassador to Canada Andriy Plakhotnyuk, Nataliya Tsmots, and Roman Vashchuk, was moderated by Volodymyr Sheyko, director of the Ukrainian Institute.
The symposium’s program was strategically designed. The organizers set a goal: to go beyond established academic discussions and offer a new perspective on Ukraine’s place in the global scientific and socio-political landscape.
That is why the thematic sessions brought together representatives from various academic disciplines, creating an opportunity to rethink how scientific discourse, public diplomacy, and international public debate are transforming under the influence of contemporary global challenges—above all, Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. The organizers sought not only to make sense of these changes but also to initiate an interdisciplinary dialogue capable of influencing the future development of Ukrainian studies and their place in the global humanities.
About CIUS. The Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies was established in 1976 at the University of Alberta with the support of the Ukrainian community in Canada and the Government of Alberta. As University President Bill Flanagan noted in his anniversary message, it was the first institute in Canada and the second in the Western world dedicated entirely to Ukrainian studies. Among its achievements are the English-language Encyclopedia of Ukraine and the English translation of Mykhailo Hrushevsky’s History of Ukraine-Rus. CIUS also supports research on the Holodomor, the teaching of the Ukrainian language, and the study of modern Ukraine.
