In the third quarter of 2026, businesses significantly downgraded their expectations regarding business activity for the next 12 months: the Business Expectations Index (BEI) fell to 100.8% from 107.0% in the second quarter, according to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
“Respondents expected a decline in the volume of goods and services produced in Ukraine and noted unfavorable prospects for the financial and economic development of their enterprises,” the regulator said.
Enterprises in 11 of the surveyed regions and in most sectors maintained positive expectations regarding business activity. Businesses view future investment expenditures on machinery, equipment, and inventory; total sales of their own products; and investments in construction work positively, while their assessments of their financial and economic condition and future workforce size are negative.
Military operations and their consequences remain the main factor holding back companies’ efforts to ramp up production; a shortage of skilled workers is also a significant constraint.
Businesses have revised downward their expectations regarding the volume of goods and services produced in Ukraine over the next 12 months: the balance of responses stood at -11.9%, compared to 7.6% in the second quarter. Negative expectations were reported by enterprises in all surveyed economic sectors, except for energy and water supply, where no changes are expected.
Inflation expectations remained virtually unchanged: expected annual inflation over the next 12 months stands at 11.5%, compared to 11.6% in the previous quarter. Military operations and their consequences were cited as the main inflationary factor by 85.5% of respondents, which is 4.9 percentage points higher than in the second quarter.
Exchange rate expectations strengthened somewhat: the average projected hryvnia exchange rate is 46.90 UAH/$1 and 54.85 UAH/EUR1, compared to 46.12 UAH/$1 and 54.42 UAH/EUR1 in the previous quarter.
Assessments of enterprises’ current financial and economic condition deteriorated: the balance of responses stood at -7.0%, compared with -5.1% in the previous quarter. Expectations regarding the financial and economic condition for the next 12 months also worsened—to -4.3% from 2.4%.
Enterprises continue to expect growth in sales volumes, particularly in the foreign market, but at significantly slower rates: the net balance of responses stood at 4.0% and 2.0%, respectively, compared to 18.4% and 17.0% in the second quarter. Energy and water supply companies expect the strongest sales growth in the domestic market, while construction companies expect it in the foreign market.
Expectations regarding investment spending on machinery, equipment, and inventory remain positive but have weakened: the balance of responses stood at 10.4%, compared to 15.5% in the second quarter. Assessments of investment in construction work also remained positive—0.5% compared to 2.1%.
Companies attracting foreign investment continue to expect growth in investment volumes, albeit at a slower pace: the balance of responses stood at 7.8% compared to 8.9%. The share of those planning to attract such investments rose to 21.4% from 20.3%.
Assessments regarding the number of employees deteriorated: the balance of responses stood at -6.7%. Companies in all surveyed sectors, except for the “other” category, expect staff reductions, with the mining industry seeing the largest declines.
The need for borrowed funds in the near term has weakened slightly compared to the second quarter—32.6% versus 35.3%—while the share of those planning to take out bank loans remained virtually unchanged—35.6% versus 36.0%.
The share of companies planning to take out loans in the national currency rose to 86.9% from 80.8%. High interest rates and the availability of other sources of financing remain the main reasons for postponing borrowing—45.5% and 42.0% of responses, respectively.
According to the survey results, the share of companies planning to raise funds abroad rose to 7.9% from 6.5%. Assessments of the strictness of conditions for accessing bank loans improved: the balance of responses stood at 11.6% compared to 13.9% in the previous quarter.
The survey was conducted from July 30 to August 28, 2026, among 664 enterprises from 21 regions of the country.
The sample included 21.2% of enterprises in trade, 18.8% in manufacturing, 14.5% in agriculture, 13.7% in transportation and communications, 5.9% in the extractive industry, 5.0% in energy and water supply, 3.3% in construction, and 17.6% in other sectors. Among the respondents, 29.5% were large enterprises, 37.7% were medium-sized enterprises, and 32.8% were small enterprises.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) revoked the license of LLC “FC ”Artificial Finance Intelligence“” to operate as a financial company providing financial services such as lending funds and precious metals.
According to the NBU’s website, the reason for this decision was the company’s refusal to provide documents and information requested by the inspection team, which made it impossible to conduct the unscheduled inspection that began on June 30, 2026.
The Committee on Supervision and Regulation of Non-Bank Financial Services Markets adopted the corresponding decision on September 28, 2026.
Artificial Finance Intelligence LLC (Dnipro) was registered on February 3, 2020. Its authorized capital amounts to 21 million UAH.
On September 10, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) announced its intention to enter into a contract with insurance company “VUSO” (Kyiv) for employee health insurance, according to the Prozorro electronic procurement system.
With an expected cost of the service at 144.389 million UAH, the company’s bid amounted to 129.174 million UAH.
Insurance Company “Kraina” also participated in the tender—its bid was 2 UAH lower, but it was rejected.
Other participants in the tender included Insurance Company “Universalna” (UAH 129.826 million), “Arsenal Insurance” (UAH 144.159 million), and “INGO” (UAH 144.252 million).
As previously reported, on August 11, 2025, the NBU awarded the contract for employee health insurance to VUSO Insurance Company; on June 4, 2024, Universala Insurance Company was the winner of the tender.
VUSO Insurance Company was founded in 2001. It is a member of the Motor Transport Insurance Bureau of Ukraine (MTIBU) and the Ukrainian Insurance Federation (UIF), a participant in the Direct Claims Settlement Agreement, and a member of the Nuclear Insurance Pool.
According to the NBU, the company ranked third in premiums written among Ukraine’s non-life insurers as of the end of 2025.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) raised its estimate of international reserves at the end of 2026 to $69.7 billion from $64.8 billion, and for 2027 to $73.7 billion from $66.5 billion.
“The transfer of a portion of the foreign currency received into international reserves will lead to their growth to nearly $70 billion by the end of the year. This forecast takes into account increased demand for imports of components for arms production and, accordingly, an expansion in structural demand for foreign currency, which will require the NBU to step up its interventions to meet the economy’s needs while maintaining the stability of the foreign exchange market. “In other words, the NBU’s intermediary role in the foreign exchange market will strengthen,” the National Bank noted in a press release on Thursday.
As previously reported, $11.3 billion was deposited into the government’s foreign exchange accounts at the National Bank in June, including $6.8 billion from the EU and nearly $4.5 billion through World Bank accounts. In addition, Ukraine received $4.4 billion from the European Union as part of the first disbursement of the first defense tranche under the Ukraine Support Loan program; however, these funds were not credited to the country’s international reserves due to their restricted (earmarked) use. In July, Ukraine received another tranche of EUR 3.47 billion from the EU under the Ukraine Support Loan program and a second tranche of approximately $690 million from the IMF. The NBU expects that the total amount of direct budgetary support from partners in 2026 could reach about $54 billion, which will be sufficient to cover the budget deficit.
Starting April 25, 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is easing a number of currency restrictions, specifically simplifying the conditions for defense enterprises to purchase foreign currency, expanding opportunities for non-resident military personnel and non-resident specialists to transfer funds abroad, and creating conditions for the implementation of the government’s program to support Ukrainians abroad.
“When fulfilling currency purchase requests from defense enterprises, banks will be able to disregard foreign currency balances in accounts if these funds were received from foreign states or their authorized agencies to finance contracts for the production of military and dual-use goods for security and defense forces,” the NBU noted in a press release on Friday.
The same rule will apply when purchasing foreign currency using budget funds to fulfill a government contract for the production of military goods for these recipients.
The National Bank has also expanded opportunities for non-resident military personnel to purchase foreign currency and transfer it abroad. They will be able to purchase and transfer foreign currency abroad without restrictions in the amount of their received monetary allowance, provided these funds were credited to their account on or after May 1, 2026. For funds credited prior to this date, the current limit of 400,000 UAH equivalent per calendar month will apply.
In addition, banks are permitted to credit funds in hryvnia within Ukraine to the current accounts of non-resident individuals who are currently serving or have served in the Armed Forces of Ukraine or the National Guard of Ukraine.
For individuals who are residents of Russia or Belarus, such transactions are permitted without separate approval from the Security Service of Ukraine; however, transfers from residents of these countries are possible only if such an individual possesses a document confirming temporary asylum in another country.
It has been clarified that for the identification and verification of military personnel when opening accounts, banks and non-bank payment service providers may use the military personnel’s military registration document, as well as a currently valid military ID, officer’s ID, or general’s (admiral’s) ID.
The regulator has also simplified certain conditions for purchasing and transferring currency to attract highly qualified non-resident specialists. Ukrainian legal entities are permitted to purchase and transfer foreign currency to the accounts of non-resident individuals—members of supervisory boards, boards of directors, and executive bodies—opened outside Ukraine, in the amount of payments accrued as of May 1, 2026, under civil law contracts.
Non-resident individuals, in turn, will be able to purchase and transfer foreign currency abroad in the amount of payments received on or after May 1, 2026, into their hryvnia accounts at Ukrainian banks as salaries, other payments provided for by law, as well as payments under civil law contracts.
The NBU also authorized Agency of National Unity LLC to make transfers abroad using budget funds to implement the government’s program to support Ukrainians abroad and facilitate their return to Ukraine.
Separately, the regulator has abolished the requirement for insurers to submit monthly reports on compliance with solvency requirements in order to remain on the list of companies authorized to conduct reinsurance transactions with non-resident reinsurers.
The changes were approved by a resolution of the central bank’s board dated April 23, 2026, which takes effect on April 25, 2026.
As reported, in January 2026, the NBU had already eased a number of currency restrictions, including introducing a “loan” limit for businesses, allowing funds for goods to be returned to the accounts of individuals abroad under certain conditions, and clarifying the rules for currency supervision of export settlements.
FC “Liberty Finance” considers the National Bank of Ukraine’s decision to revoke licenses to be unlawful and will seek their reinstatement through legal proceedings
In connection with the National Bank of Ukraine’s notice dated March 24, 2026, regarding the revocation of Liberty Finance FC’s license to operate as a financial company and its license to conduct cash foreign exchange transactions, we deem it necessary to inform the public of the following.
1. FC “Liberty Finance” disagrees with the relevant decision of the National Bank of Ukraine and considers it illegal.
2. The company operates exclusively within the legal framework and within the scope of the licenses issued by the regulator. The information regarding two unlicensed transactions conducted by employees of Liberty Finance FC, which the regulator used to justify its decision, is untrue. Such situations are fundamentally impossible in our customer service branches due to our transparent operational model.
3. At the time of the license revocation, Liberty Finance FC is in the process of actively challenging the NBU’s previous decisions in the Kyiv Administrative Court.
4. We are confident in our position, so we will defend the business reputation of Liberty Finance FC and seek the reinstatement of the revoked licenses through legal proceedings.
Despite the current situation and regulatory pressure, our company guarantees the full and timely fulfillment of its obligations to clients.
All agreements and contracts entered into prior to the publication of the NBU’s decision remain in effect.
FC “Liberty Finance” has sufficient liquidity to ensure financial stability and to make all necessary payments in full.
Our position is consistent, and our next steps will be aimed at protecting the legitimate interests of Liberty Finance FC and our clients.
