Over the next two weeks, domestic prices for gasoline and diesel may rise by 4.5–5 UAH per liter due to a price surge on global markets to levels close to April’s highs; specifically, the price of diesel fuel in London rising above $1,400 per metric ton, according to Serhiy Kuyun, director of the “A-95” consulting group.
“We are expecting domestic prices to rise. Currently, this increase translates to an additional 4.5–5.0 UAH per liter of gasoline and diesel fuel (their current average prices are 80 and 91 UAH per liter, respectively). This could happen within a couple of weeks if current prices stabilize at their current levels,” he wrote on Facebook on Wednesday.
According to the expert, on September 1 and 2, some Ukrainian retail chains had already raised prices by 1 UAH per liter.
“There are no fuel availability issues, neither here nor in Europe. Therefore, the issue is solely about price. The much-discussed 100 UAH per liter mark hasn’t been reached yet, but it’s starting to loom on the horizon again,” Kuyun noted.
As reported by “Energoreforma,” fuel prices in Ukraine showed both slight decreases and increases throughout August.
According to “A-95,” as of September 2, the average retail price in Ukraine for A-95 gasoline is 80.7 UAH/liter, and for diesel fuel, 91.31 UAH/liter.
Starting in 2027, Ukraine will launch a pilot project for the underground storage of petroleum products from the minimum reserves of oil and petroleum products (MROPP), according to Cabinet of Ministers Resolution No. 1037 dated August 13, 2026, published on the government portal.
According to the resolution, the pilot project, initiated by the Ministry of Energy, is to last no more than two years.
“Starting from the beginning of the third base year (2027), market participants and operators are required to store a portion of diesel fuel—amounting to at least 20% of the total volume of this type of petroleum product—from the MRPS in underground petroleum product storage facilities,” – states the procedure for implementing the pilot project attached to the resolution.
The project provides for the creation of an extensive system of underground petroleum product storage facilities and conditions for their safe storage, as noted in the procedure.
The Ministry of Energy has been designated as the coordinator of the pilot project, and JSC “Ukrtransnafta” as the specialized responsible storage operator.
At the same time, the operation of the specialized responsible storage operator grants other market participants the right to store petroleum products in their own underground storage facilities.
The list of state-owned facilities whose property may be used as underground storage facilities is specified in the confidential section of the resolution.
The Ministry of Energy must ensure the implementation of the project in cooperation with, among others, NJSC “Naftogaz of Ukraine,” “Ukrtransnafta,” and the “Market Operator.”
Serhiy Kuyun, director of the consulting firm A-95, commented on the pilot project, noting that there are currently no underground storage facilities in the country, and that with only four months remaining before the deadline, no one will even have time to develop a project. At the same time, he pointed out that the resolution provides for the use of oil pipelines, salt caverns, depleted oil or gas fields, and other geological formations for these purposes.
Kuyun also noted that in the near future, state-owned banks, by government decision, may begin providing loans for underground petroleum product storage facility projects at 10% per annum, with the state compensating for the remaining interest. According to his information, the loan amount could range from 100 million UAH to 1 billion UAH. At the same time, Kuyun suggested that in such cases, a strict condition would be imposed requiring the storage facilities to be put into operation within a year.
However, in his opinion, a year is an unrealistic deadline, so the government needs to speed up the approval of project documentation, a process that currently takes one to one and a half years. The director of A-95 also noted that private gas station network operators have already begun construction of underground storage facilities “at their own risk,” while simultaneously seeking approval for their projects.
He also drew attention to the broader issue of MZNN storage starting in 2027.
“The law (on MZNN), although blocked by subordinate regulations, is formally in effect, and currently the MZNN quota stands at 6% (of the market—ER), or approximately 600,000 metric tons. This is a volume that physically has nowhere to be stored—neither underground nor above ground. And no one is going to store it on land, because that would be business suicide. If nothing changes, the quota will automatically increase to 9% starting in 2027,” Kuyun explained.
He added that the Ministry of Energy understands the problem and has prepared amendments to the law, which already number 300.
“The positions are as follows: everyone, without exception, understands the main point—reserves are necessary, but they must be protected. And these reserves must remain in Ukraine; fantasies about storing them abroad are quickly dispelled,” the director of A-95 concluded.
As reported, parliament passed the MZNN law on November 21, 2023.
The explanatory note to Bill No. 9024-d stated that its adoption would allow for the creation of a system of minimum reserves of crude oil and petroleum products in Ukraine and would regulate relations in the sphere of managing such minimum reserves, as well as ensure Ukraine’s compliance with its obligations regarding the implementation of Directive 2009/119/EU.
According to Vasyl Danylyak, CEO of OKKO Group, establishing minimum oil and petroleum product reserves is only feasible once Ukraine has a sufficient network of underground storage facilities.
FUEL, petroleum product, storage facility, UKRAINE, UKRTRANSNAFTA
Against the backdrop of shrinking fuel supply channels and the Russian Federation’s increasingly intense attacks on fuel infrastructure, Ukraine needs to build decentralized, small-scale underground storage facilities for petroleum products, according to Serhiy Kuyun, director of the consulting firm A-95.
“There is only one solution—storage in underground facilities. It appears that both the government and private players are already working on this. At the same time, building such infrastructure is at least twice as expensive as above-ground storage tanks,” he wrote on his Facebook page on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, according to the expert, there is currently no government support, not even in the form of deregulation or expedited approval of project documentation, let alone preferential lending and other incentives.
According to Kuyun, when creating underground storage facilities, the goal should not be to build large-scale facilities, as they are more vulnerable to complex missile strikes.
“But if every importer builds its own small storage facilities with a capacity of 3,000–4,000–5,000–10,000 cubic meters, this will already be a much more resilient structure. In any case, however, it’s important to understand that this won’t happen quickly—it will take one and a half to two years if we start today,” he believes.
According to the expert, it is necessary to convey to citizens, municipal institutions, and government organizations, as well as private companies, the need to build up fuel reserves. “A reserve distributed among consumers will help prevent panic buying and an excessive, sudden strain on the supply system in the event of a crisis,” noted the director of A-95.
According to him, Russia has launched new strikes on the bridge in Mayaky (the route from Reni to the “mainland”) and a “Shahed” drone strike on a tanker carrying lubricants on that same route.
“I think that when planning the strategy for securing petroleum products for the coming months, it’s best to forget about the South (…). This means that the entire burden will fall on the land border, which is already at maximum capacity. All of this indicates that the system is becoming less diversified, which carries corresponding risks,” Kuyun wrote.
As he explained, the enemy is gradually cutting off Ukraine’s southern fuel supply route, which amounts to a triple blow: a reduction in supply channels, a decrease in consumption due to the shift from “maritime” exports to “road” transport, and an increase in the burden on the border coupled with a decrease in its capacity for fuel imports.
At the same time, Russia is already attacking not only oil depots in Ukraine but also gas stations with fuel tankers.
As reported, the Ukrainian Oil and Gas Association (NAU) is urging the government to grant the fuel industry access to loans at 10% interest, which can be achieved by extending the scope of Cabinet of Ministers Resolution
No. 594 to all types of businesses for the purpose of creating underground storage tanks for petroleum products as part of the reconstruction of existing oil depots.
This was announced, in particular, by UGA President Yaroslav Starovoitenko during an online meeting with business representatives organized by the parliamentary committee on finance, tax, and customs policy earlier this week.
In July 2026, the state-owned company Ukrnafta increased its diesel fuel imports by 2.4 times compared to July of last year—to nearly 60,000 metric tons—ranking second among the country’s largest importers.
These figures were reported by the “A-95 Consulting Group.” A total of 134 companies imported diesel fuel in July.
The OKKO Group retained first place, importing more than 73,000 metric tons of diesel fuel. Its imports rose by 32% compared to July 2025.
Ukrnafta accounted for about 59,800 metric tons, or approximately 10.6% of the country’s total diesel fuel imports in July.
UPG took third place with 53,200 metric tons. Next came Energo Trade JSC with 50,700 metric tons and WOG with 42,900 metric tons.
Thus, the five largest importers together imported about 280,000 metric tons of diesel fuel—nearly half of the total volume of supplies to Ukraine in July.
Among the major market players, the Western Fuel and Energy Company (ZPEK) demonstrated the highest growth rate, increasing its imports by a factor of 5.3—to approximately 32,000 metric tons.
The sharp increase in Ukrnafta’s purchases comes amid its growing role in the Ukrainian petroleum products market following the expansion of its own network of gas stations and trading operations.
Overall, Ukraine imported 562,000 metric tons of diesel fuel in July—5% more than a year earlier.
However, despite the rise in imports, A-95 reported a fuel shortage in the market. Analysts cite several reasons for this, including increased demand following a rise in global prices, higher purchases by industrial and private consumers, and increased consumption due to the shift in agricultural exports toward road and rail transport.
In August, analysts expect the situation to gradually normalize thanks to a decline in global prices and an increase in fuel supply.
Transportation prices in Ukraine in July 2026 were 18.6% higher than a year earlier, according to data from the State Statistics Service. In just one month, transportation prices rose by 1.3%. The most significant increase was recorded in passenger road transportation—up 6% in July and 30.8% compared to July 2025.
Overall, transportation services rose in price by 28.9% over the year and by 25.7% since the beginning of 2026. Passenger rail transportation became 2.7% more expensive over the month and 15.5% more expensive over the year.
Another significant factor remains the cost of fuel. In July, fuel and lubricants became 0.1% cheaper compared to June; however, compared to July of last year, they were 28% more expensive, and since the beginning of the year—26.5% more expensive.
Thus, transportation costs are rising significantly faster than the overall consumer market: annual inflation in Ukraine stood at 7.7% in July, while transportation inflation was 18.6% and transportation services inflation was 28.9%.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has so far rejected the idea of mobile gas stations in order to protect consumers from low-quality fuel and avoid risks related to tax payments, but gas station operating schedules will be revised, according to Serhiy Kuyun, director of the consulting firm “A-95.”
“The idea of mobile gas stations has been put on hold to avoid facing the situation currently unfolding in Russia, where many people no longer drive anywhere due to the authorization to sell low-quality fuel. Moreover, the state’s need for fuel taxes hasn’t gone away, and in this chaos, it will be even harder to collect them,” Kuyun wrote on his Facebook page on Friday.
At the same time, as he noted, certain measures regarding gas station operations under shelling were discussed at a recent meeting with the prime minister.
“At the meeting, representatives of the gas station network assured that they would continue operating, as they have gradually adapted to the new realities. But operating hours will obviously be changed (shortened), and service operations in dangerous areas will be temporarily suspended… The less often and the less time you spend at a gas station, the better,” Kuyun noted.
He also noted that the issue of fuel delivery remains critical, as the enemy has begun targeting fuel tankers.
The director of “A-95” noted that, according to estimates, up to 200 gas stations and oil depots have already been damaged, including four oil depots and nine “OKKO” gas stations, 22 “WOG” facilities, and 12 “Ukrnafta” facilities.
As previously reported, on July 7, the Prime Minister of Ukraine held a meeting with oil traders to discuss the necessary measures to ensure continued fuel supplies to frontline regions amid ongoing Russian attacks on gas stations and fuel complexes.
At the time, Danylo Getmantsev, chairman of the Verkhovna Rada’s Tax Committee, noted following the meeting that the government and market representatives have a clear plan of action to ensure uninterrupted supplies and prevent losses. He also announced that the necessary decisions would be adopted in the near future.
