The steps announced by the National Bank of Ukraine in the near future to complete the first stage of currency liberalization may require about $5.5 billion in foreign exchange reserves, but are expected to significantly expand business opportunities, improve conditions for attracting investment and private capital participation in the restored and ultimately have a positive impact on economic dynamics, the press service of the National Bank of Ukraine said.
“Currency liberalization will cost $5.5 billion. This is necessary to give more oxygen to business and the economy,” the press service said, adding that these steps have already been taken into account in the updated forecast, which provides for the preservation of international reserves this year and next year at a level close to the current – $43-44 billion.
Representatives of the NBU specified that the completion of the first stage of liberalization includes the possibility of partial payment of new dividends, the removal of restrictions on the import of services, payment of leasing and rent, the possibility of payments on old loans and a number of easing for the work of volunteers and the purchase of goods for military needs.
At the same time, the central bank noted that individual proposals sounding today, for example, to increase the period of return of foreign currency proceeds from the export of basic agricultural products from 90 to 180 days or from 180 to 360 days – for the metallurgical industry may complicate the implementation of such liberalization.
The press service of the NBU added that by the fall of last year the overdue return of foreign currency proceeds exceeded $4.5 billion. According to representatives of the National Bank, the decision taken in mid-November on the return of foreign currency proceeds from major agro-exports within 90 days instead of 180 days had a positive impact on the foreign exchange market, including for the first quarter of this year, the inflow of foreign currency from agro-exports to the market reached $1.3 billion against $800 million in the first quarter of last year.
As reported, at the monetary briefing on April 25, the head of the NBU Andriy Pyshnyy announced in the near future steps on currency liberalization within the framework of the strategy agreed with the International Monetary Fund to ease currency restrictions.
“So far, we see grounds to complete the first stage, which provides for certain relaxations regarding new dividends, the abolition of the ban respectively on imports of services and currency liberalization of the possibility of servicing old debts. Currently, the National Bank is at the stage of finalization and final calibration of these decisions, which we intend to announce in the near future,” he said.
Taking into account the receipt of record external revenues of almost $9 billion in March, international reserves increased by 18%, or $6.7 billion – to a record $43 billion 762.7 million.
Which energy companies were included in the Opendatabot Index?
According to the Opendatabot Index, the total revenue of the top 10 energy companies in Ukraine amounted to almost UAH 750 billion. Half of the top companies are state-owned, and 4 more belong to Rinat Akhmetov’s SCM Group. For the second year in a row, D.Trading, which is part of SCM Group, remains the leader.
According to the Opendatabot Index, the leaders of Ukraine’s energy sector earned UAH 745.87 billion last year. This is 8% more than the total revenue of these companies in 2022, which is UAH 688.45 billion.
This year’s ranking includes 5 state-owned companies and 4 companies belonging to Rinat Akhmetov’s SCM Group. Another company, Kyiv Oblast Energy Company LLC, is owned by Nelia Kostenko.
8 of the top companies are engaged in electricity generation and trading, and two more are engaged in gas trading.
D.Trading, which is part of SCM Group, has been the leader of the group for two years in a row. Last year, the company’s revenue increased by 15% compared to 2022: from UAH 144.18 billion to UAH 165.65 billion. At the same time, net profit increased by 30% in 2023.
Two other companies of Rinat Akhmetov managed to get the biggest increase in revenue. Thus, Kyiv Energy Services increased its revenue by 1.5 times, and Dnipro Energy Services by one third compared to 2022.
It is worth noting that Dnipro Energy Services received the largest increase in profits – 2.5 times – among all the companies included in this year’s Energy Index.
On the contrary, DTEK Zakhidenergo, the fourth company of SCM Group, decreased its revenue by 16% over the year. Last year, the company suffered a loss of UAH 164 million.
Overall, the total revenue of 4 companies owned by Rinat Akhmetov amounted to UAH 262.48 billion in 2023. This is 35% of the total revenue of the top 10 energy companies in the Opendatabot Energy Index.
The ranking of the best companies in the energy sector includes 5 state-owned companies, but only two managed to increase their revenue last year. Thus, Ukrhydroenergo increased its earnings by 30%, and NNEGC Energoatom – by 15%.
It is worth noting that Ukrhydroenergo received the largest net profit among the 10 companies in the Index in 2023 – UAH 17.3 billion. This is almost half as much as in the first year of the full-scale invasion. The revenue of state-owned Ukrenergo remained almost unchanged over the year, at over UAH 82 billion.
Two other state-owned companies involved in gas trading reduced their revenues in 2023 compared to 2022: Naftogaz of Ukraine by 4% and Naftogaz Trading by 9%. Both companies suffered losses in 2023, totaling UAH 10.29 billion.
The last place in the top is taken by Kyiv Regional Energy Company LLC, owned by Nelia Kostenko. The company increased its revenue by 29%, while its profit decreased by a quarter compared to the first year of the full-scale invasion.
https://opendatabot.ua/analytics/index-electricity-2024
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said at a party conference in Pescara that she would stand as a candidate in June’s European Parliament elections, Reuters reports.
“We want to do in Europe what we have done in Italy … to create a majority that will unite the center-right forces and send the left into opposition,” Meloni said.
Meloni’s name will be the first on ballots from Italy’s leading Brothers of Italy party in all five Italian constituencies in the European elections.
The Italian prime minister will try to bolster her party’s support, but she will not win a seat in the European Parliament if elected, the agency noted.
She has promised that she will not use “a single minute” of her time as prime minister to campaign.
According to the latest polls, Reuters notes, her party is the most popular in Italy with 27% support.
As of April 2024 in Ukraine blocked more than 2 500 websites that provided the activity of gambling, also investigated more than 450 criminal offenses on the facts of their illegal organization, reports the Office of the Prosecutor General.
“As of April 2024, more than 450 criminal offenses are being investigated for illegal organization of gambling. Suspicion of 21 persons has been reported. The indictments against 72 people, including 7 indictments against 68 participants of criminal groups were sent to court,” – said in the message published on the website of the Office of the Prosecutor General.
“According to the results of recommendations sent by law enforcers to block illegal resources so far blocked more than 2,500 websites that provided the activity of conducting gambling and which hosted online casino resources without the appropriate license,” – noted in the message.
In 2023, law enforcers registered 169 offenses on the facts of illegal organization of gambling, 74 persons were notified of suspicion. 52 indictments against 97 people were sent to court. Law enforcers seized more than 7 thousand units of computer and other equipment, conducted about 500 searches and 700 inspections of addresses. The activity of 10 casinos was stopped. 10 indictments were sent to court against 42 people who are members of criminal groups.
“Prosecutors also provide procedural guidance in proceedings on a number of large companies involved in the organization and operation of illegal online casinos. Among examples: provided procedural guidance in criminal proceedings on the legalization of funds from illegal online gambling for a total of UAH 4.8 billion,” – stated in the message.
In addition, law enforcers are carrying out a pre-trial investigation into the sub-sanctioned legal entity, which is under the control of structures and citizens of the Russian Federation, organized and conducted illegal betting activities on the basis of resources of the international bookmaker’s office.
As reported, on April 20, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky enacted the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine “On countering the negative consequences of gambling on the Internet”.
Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of Defense of Australia Richard Marles announced another package of military aid to Ukraine from Australia in 100 million dollars.
“Australia will stay with Ukraine for as long as it takes for Ukraine to win this war. To that end, we are today announcing the next $100 million dollar aid package to Ukraine. 50 million of this will be for short-range air defense systems. Another 30 million will be for drones, as Australia is part of a drone coalition with the UK and Latvia. The remainder of the amount will be used to purchase support equipment, from inflatable boats to helmets and boots,” Marles told a joint briefing with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmygal in Lviv on Saturday.
He also added that Australia had been able to provide Ukraine with air-to-ground munitions.
“We understand that this conflict will be very long and we will provide more in the future because we are determined to stand with Ukraine for as long as necessary,” the minister stressed.
As Shmygal wrote in Telegram, in total, Australia’s support for Ukraine already amounts to more than $655 million, of which $540 million is specifically military aid.
“We very much appreciate such solidarity of the Australian people with Ukraine. Thank you Mr. Richard Marles for deep involvement in Ukrainian affairs, for effective solidarity, for the concrete things that Australia is doing for Ukraine,” wrote Shmygal.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for January-March 2024 amounted to 4.5% (+/- 1%) from 3.6% (+/- 1%) at the end of January-February.
Growth accelerated to 4.6% (+/- 1%) in March from 3.9% (+/- 1%) in February and 3.5% (+/- 1%) in January this year, according to an estimate released on the website of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine.
“In March 2024, the trend of recovery growth continued, supported by the stable operation of the Ukrainian maritime corridor (stimulated activity in rail transport, metallurgy and metal ore mining), increased production capacity in the extractive industry, intensified production of mineral fertilizers, increased demand for construction materials, taking place against the backdrop of improved business sentiment … and revival of consumer activity …,” the Ministry of Economy pointed out.
The Ministry added that in March, almost all aggregated economic activities formed a positive contribution to the total GDP. Thus, exports of products of agricultural production and mining and metallurgical complex were provided by the Ukrainian Sea Corridor; and investment demand generated by the budget, as well as the increase in production capacity in the extractive industry formed a positive contribution of production types.
At the same time, it is pointed out that the dynamics of electricity production slowed down significantly in the context of significant rocket attacks in late March, which led to serious damage to energy infrastructure and will require a significant period of time and resources to restore it.
As reported, the National Bank of Ukraine on April 25 worsened its forecast for the country’s GDP growth this year from 3.6% to 3% after 5.3% last year.
When approving the draft state budget for the second reading in early November 2023, the government forecasted GDP growth of 4.6% this year.
Earlier Experts Club analytical center and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3 Subscribe to Experts Club youtube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, MACROECONOMICS, MINISTRY OF ECONOMY, UKRAINE, УРАКІНА
