Italy’s economy in 2025 is showing moderate growth amid structural problems and external economic challenges. Despite positive trends at the beginning of the year, the outlook for the rest of the year remains uncertain.
Key macroeconomic indicators for 2025
GDP growth: According to the European Commission’s forecast, GDP is expected to increase by 1.0% in 2025.
Inflation: Inflation is expected to rise moderately to 2.3%.
Unemployment rate: Unemployment is expected to fall to 7.7%.
Budget deficit: The deficit is projected to narrow to 3.3% of GDP.
Public debt: Public debt is expected to rise to 137.8% of GDP by 2026.
Economic dynamics in January-April 2025
Industrial production: In March 2025, industrial production increased by 0.1% compared to February, which is below the expected growth of 0.5%. In annual terms, production fell by 1.8%, continuing the downward trend for 26 months.
GDP growth in Q1: Italy’s economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, slightly exceeding analysts’ expectations. Factors supporting the economy
Domestic demand: Private consumption is expected to strengthen, becoming the main driver of economic growth in 2025.
Fiscal policy: The Italian government has approved a budget for 2025 that includes tax breaks for families and deficit reduction, which should stimulate economic activity.
Risks and challenges
External factors: Potential trade tensions, particularly with the US, could negatively affect exports and overall economic growth.
Structural problems: High public debt and the need for structural reforms remain key challenges for the Italian economy.
Forecast for the end of 2025
GDP growth: Growth of around 1.0% is expected, with domestic demand remaining the main driver.
Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain at 2.3%, in line with the European Central Bank’s target.
Unemployment: The unemployment rate is projected to decline to 7.7%, reflecting a gradual improvement in the labor market.
Thus, despite the existing challenges, Italy’s economy is showing signs of stabilization in 2025, supported by domestic demand and government support measures. However, further structural reforms and the effective use of available resources are necessary to ensure sustainable growth.
The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center warns of frosts in western and northern regions, as well as in Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr regions, on Monday night.
“On the night of May 12, in the western, northern, and Vinnytsia regions, there will be frost on the ground (hazard level I, yellow), and in the western and Zhytomyr regions and in the air, frost will be 0-3° (hazard level II, orange),” the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center said in a statement.
It is noted that frosts will damage flowering fruit trees.
Currently, photos of snow-covered Carpathian Mountains, in particular Yablunytsia in Ivano-Frankivsk region, are being posted online. It snowed in the morning on Mount Pop Ivan Chernogorsky, with about 5 cm of snow falling during the day.
According to a survey conducted by Active Group in cooperation with the Experts Club think tank, Ukrainians’ attitude toward Brazil is mostly positive or neutral.
51.8% of respondents chose a neutral position, while 33.3% expressed a positive attitude (of which 26.9% said “mostly positive” and 6.4% said “completely positive”). A negative attitude was recorded in 9.3% of respondents, of which 8.0% were “mostly negative” and 1.3% were “completely negative.”
“Brazil is associated with vibrant cultural events, football, and natural wonders, which creates a generally positive image. However, geographical distance and weak interaction at the intergovernmental level lead to a significant proportion of neutral perceptions,” comments Maksim Urakin, candidate of economic sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Ukrainians mostly maintain a neutral or positive attitude toward Brazil. At the same time, a significant proportion of respondents were unable to give an assessment, which indicates the potential for forming a stable image of the country in the mass consciousness.
The presentation of the study is available at the link.
ACTIVE GROUP, DIPLOMACY, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, URAKIN
According to the results of a sociological survey conducted by Active Group in cooperation with the Experts Club think tank, Ukrainians are mostly neutral towards Bolivia.
70.5% of respondents chose a neutral position, while 13.6% expressed a positive attitude (of which 9.5% said “mostly positive” and 4.1% said “completely positive”). Bolivia is viewed negatively by 4.9% of respondents, while 11.0% were undecided.
“These results indicate that Bolivia remains a ‘blank spot’ on the world map for Ukrainians. The lack of vivid associations or regular presence in international news shapes a predominantly neutral or indifferent attitude,” said Oleksandr Pozniy, co-founder of Active Group.
Ukrainians’ neutral attitude toward Bolivia dominates, indicating limited awareness of the country among the general public. A positive attitude was recorded in more than 13% of respondents, while a negative attitude was minimal.
The presentation of the study is available at the link.
ACTIVE GROUP, DIPLOMACY, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, URAKIN
According to the results of a survey conducted by Active Group in collaboration with the Experts Club think tank, Ukrainians demonstrate a mostly neutral or positive attitude towards Argentina.
In particular, 53.1% of respondents said they had a neutral attitude, while 37.8% rated their attitude as positive (of which 29.3% said “mostly positive” and 8.4% said “completely positive”). Only 3.2% of respondents have a negative perception of Argentina, while 6.0% abstained from answering.
“In the Ukrainian consciousness, Argentina is often associated with football, tango, and the romance of distant countries. At the same time, the political and economic aspects of the country’s life are less well known, which explains the dominance of neutral and positive perceptions,” notes Maksim Urakin, candidate of economic sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
More than a third of Ukrainians have a positive attitude toward Argentina, and more than half have a neutral attitude. These data indicate a positive image of the country, based mainly on cultural associations and distance from current political conflicts.
The presentation of the study is available at the link.
ACTIVE GROUP, DIPLOMACY, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, URAKIN
The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) produced 7 million 485.59 thousand tons of oil in 2024, according to the company’s report on last year’s results.
As reported, SOCAR produced 7 million 736.202 thousand tons of oil in 2023. Thus, last year, the figure decreased by 3.2%.
According to the data, gas production in 2024 amounted to 7 billion 718.053 million cubic meters, compared to 8 billion 390.738 million cubic meters a year earlier. Thus, DNAOC reduced gas production by 8% last year.
The company also notes that last year, gas consumption in Azerbaijan amounted to 13 billion 666.353 million cubic meters, which is 1.7% more than in 2023.
Earlier, the republic’s Ministry of Energy, citing operational data, reported that in 2024, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan produced 7.5 million tons of oil with condensate at its own fields, which is 3.8% less than in 2023, as well as 7.7 billion cubic meters of gas, which is 8.3% lower than the previous year.
