The analysis of key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for January-September 2024 is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. The key aspects of the report include the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
In January-September 2024, Ukraine’s economy showed a slight growth. According to the Ministry of Economy, real GDP growth in July was 2.7% in annualized terms, which is better than June’s 1.1%, but worse than May’s 3.7%. In the third quarter of 2024, growth may exceed the previously forecasted 3.1%.
“The Ukrainian economy continues to move forward despite the difficult challenges caused by the war and external economic factors. Our key task remains to maintain stable growth and attract investment in strategic sectors of the economy,” – said Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
However, rising inflation remains a challenge for the economy. In September, annual inflation reached 8.6%, accelerating from 7.5% in August. Consumer prices increased by 1.5% month-on-month, after 0.6% in August and zero in July. The National Bank of Ukraine has revised its inflation forecast for 2024, increasing it from 8.5% to 9.7%.
“Inflation remains one of the key challenges. High price growth rates significantly reduce the purchasing power of the population, which creates additional risks for the economy,” Urakin emphasized.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods increased by 5.9% over the first nine months of the year and reached $20.382 billion, indicating high imports and insufficient export growth.
“The increase in the negative trade balance signals the need to revise export support strategies. Only by developing the competitiveness of national production can we achieve balanced economic growth,” Urakin said.
Ukraine’s state budget revenues in September dropped to UAH 122.9 billion after a sharp increase in August to UAH 387.4 billion, driven by grants from the US and EU. This underscores the importance of external assistance to support the budget in times of war.
Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 8.1% in September, reaching $38.9 billion. The main reason for this was a decline in international revenues amid debt repayments.
Global economic situation
The International Monetary Fund maintained its forecast for global economic growth at 3.2% in 2024. At the same time, the US economy grew by 2.8% in the third quarter amid a 3.7% increase in consumer spending. The European Union’s economy shows more modest results: the growth forecast for 2024 has been lowered to 0.9%, and in the Eurozone – to 0.8%.
“The global economy is facing a number of challenges, including a slowdown in China and high interest rates. However, the key problem remains the persistent price pressure and geopolitical instability,” emphasized Maksim Urakin.
The Chinese economy grew by 4.6% in the third quarter, but the growth forecast for 2024 was lowered to 4.8%. India continues to show stable growth at 7%, and Brazil has improved its performance to 3%.
“The global economy is now balancing between recovery and new risks. Forecasts for the coming years depend on the resolution of geopolitical conflicts and the ability of global leaders to stabilize the economy,” added Maksim Urakin.
The economic indicators of Ukraine and the world for the first nine months of 2024 show a contradictory picture. GDP growth and positive signals from global markets are combined with inflationary risks and an imbalance in foreign trade. The global economy is also under pressure from numerous uncertainties.
“It is important for Ukraine to focus on structural reforms that stimulate export growth and attract foreign investment. Only through the sustainable development of key industries can long-term economic stability be ensured,” – summarized Maksim Urakin.
You can learn more about current economic trends in the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grE5wjPaItI
In 2024, Italy demonstrated a significant decline in the unemployment rate, reaching levels unseen in more than a decade. According to the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), in October 2024, the unemployment rate fell to 5.8%, the lowest since April 2007.
Between 2019 and 2024, the unemployment rate in Italy showed a gradual decline:
2019: around 9.9%.
2020: increase to 9.3% amid the COVID-19 pandemic
2021: a decrease to 9.5%.
2022: further decline to 8.1%.
2023: further decline to 7.3% in August
2024: reaching 5.8% in October
Among the key factors contributing to the decline in unemployment in Italy are: economic growth, gradual economic recovery after the pandemic contributed to the creation of new jobs. In addition, government programs and initiatives aimed at supporting employment and stimulating the labor market, as well as growth in the tourism and service industries, which are traditionally important for the Italian economy, contribute to the reduction of unemployment.
Despite the overall decline in the unemployment rate, the problem of youth employment remains relevant. In October 2024, the unemployment rate among people aged 15 to 24 was 17.7%, which, however, is lower than the 18.9% rate in September of the same year.
Economists note that despite the positive trends, there are risks associated with a slowdown in economic growth, especially in the industrial sector. According to ISTAT, in the third quarter of 2024, Italy’s GDP remained at the same level, which may indicate a possible economic slowdown in the future.
Thus, although Italy has made significant progress in reducing unemployment over the past five years, further improvement in the labor market will depend on the sustainability of economic growth and the effectiveness of the reforms.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter of 2023, according to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service (Ukrstat). According to the statistics agency, seasonally adjusted real GDP increased by 0.2% in the period under review compared to the previous quarter.
As reported, in late October, the National Bank of Ukraine raised its economic growth forecast for 2024 from 3.7% to 4%, and for 2025 from 4.1% to 4.3%. At the same time, the NBU downgraded its inflation forecast for 2024 from 8.5% to 9.7%, and for 2025 from 6.6% to 6.9%.
The Ministry of Economy expects Ukraine’s GDP to grow by 3.9% in 2024, with inflation at 9.5%. According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 5.3% in 2023 after a 28.8% decline in 2022.
In the first quarter of 2024, real GDP grew by 6.5%, and in the second quarter – by 3.7%.
Telegram’s revenue in 2024 amounted to more than $1 billion, the messenger’s founder Pavel Durov said.
“2024 was a very successful year for Telegram. For the first time in 3 years of its monetization, Telegram has become profitable,” Durov wrote on his Telegram channel.
According to him, the company’s cash reserves at the end of 2024 amounted to more than $500 million, excluding crypto assets.
The number of Telegram Premium subscribers tripled in 2024, exceeding 12 million, and advertising revenues “increased several times.”
Durov also said that over the past four years, Telegram has placed debt obligations worth about $2 billion, a significant portion of which was repaid in the fall of 2024.
Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) interventions in the interbank market jumped to a record high for this year and last year – $1 billion 417.4 million, the second highest figure since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine after $1 billion 424.1 million in May 2022, according to the regulator’s statistics.
According to the statistics, the central bank increased sales of foreign currency by 31.8% compared to the previous week, to $1 billion 417.6 million. At the same time, purchases remained at a meager level, but doubled over the week to $0.2 million.
In total, since the beginning of 2024, the volume of foreign currency sold by the regulator amounted to $32 billion 942.6 million, while the volume of foreign currency purchased amounted to $126 million. Over the same period in 2023, the NBU sold $27 billion 937.1 million worth of foreign currency and bought back $218.9 million.
According to the data published by the central bank during this time, the negative balance between the volume of foreign currency purchases by the population and the volume of its sales narrowed from $50.92 million to $48.52 million.
The official hryvnia exchange rate dropped by 27 kopecks to 41.8761 UAH/$1 over the week, while the cash exchange rate weakened by 32 kopecks when buying to 42.25 UAH/$1 and by 37 kopecks when selling to 42.33 UAH/$1.
Over the past month, the official hryvnia exchange rate fell by 0.9%, or 37 kopecks.
In general, since the beginning of 2024, the dollar has risen in price by 10.2%, or UAH 3.87, at the official exchange rate, and since the National Bank switched to managed flexibility on October 3, 2023, by 14.5%, or UAH 5.30.
As reported, Ukraine’s international reserves in November 2024 increased by $3.344 billion, or 9.1%, and as of December 1, according to preliminary data from the central bank, amounted to $39.925 billion, while net international reserves (NIR) increased by $3.5 billion, or 15.6%, to $25 billion 939 million.
State-owned PrivatBank (Kyiv) is launching a round-the-clock currency exchange service through specialized ATMs called ATM-Recycler, with a limit of up to $1,000 or euros per transaction, with no commission for the service, according to a press release from the state bank on Monday.
It is noted that transactions are carried out at PrivatBank’s cash exchange rate for foreign currency. The balance of the transaction less than UAH 100 is credited to the client’s card or mobile account.
According to the bank’s press service, Privat’s ATM network currently consists of 65,000 devices, including 1.29 thousand ATM-Recycler machines that allow changing foreign currency.
According to the National Bank of Ukraine, as of November 1, 2024, PrivatBank ranked 1st in terms of total assets (UAH 767.64 billion) among 62 banks operating in the country. The financial institution’s net profit for the first ten months of 2024 amounted to UAH 50.26 billion, while in the same period of 2023 it amounted to UAH 47.10 billion.
