As of August 1, farmers harvested 15.47 million tons of early grains and legumes from 4 million 423.9 thousand hectares, which is 39% of the area sown with these crops, according to the Ministry of Economy.
Last year, as of August 2, 25.29 million tons of grain were harvested from 6 million 106.1 thousand hectares, which means that the current figures are 38.8% and 27.5% lower, respectively, and the average yield, which is 3.5 tons/ha, is 15.6% lower.
According to the Ministry of Economy, 11.36 million tons of wheat were harvested from 3 million 54.2 thousand hectares (last year – 19.44 million tons from 4 million 465.8 thousand hectares), barley – 3.57 million tons from 1 million 14.8 thousand hectares (4.82 million tons from 1 million 294.1 thousand hectares).
The average yield of these crops this year is 3.7 tons/ha and 3.5 tons/ha, respectively, which is 14.6% and 5.5% less than last year’s figures.
At the same time, this year’s pea harvest is already higher than last year’s – 0.49 million tons from 208,200 hectares compared to 0.45 million tons from 205,700 hectares, and the yield is 7.7% higher at 2.4 tons/hectare.
Other cereals and legumes were threshed on an area of 145,500 hectares, with a harvest of 50,400 tons.
It is noted that among the leaders are, in particular, the Odessa region with 0.09 million tons from 1 million 70.4 thousand hectares, the Kirovograd region with 1.93 million tons from 462.9 thousand hectares, and the Poltava region with 1.52 million tons from 344.7 thousand hectares.
Farmers in the Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson regions have begun threshing millet, harvesting 83 tons from an area of 1,200 hectares, the Ministry of Economy added.
According to its data, as of August 1, 1.76 million tons of rapeseed had already been harvested from an area of 781,900 hectares, while last year on August 2, 3.24 million tons were harvested from 1,195,500 hectares, and the average yield is 16.8% lower than last year’s on this date and amounts to 2.3 tons/hectare.
As reported, the National Bank of Ukraine, in its Inflation Report published on Friday night, lowered its forecast for this year’s grain harvest from 61.7 million tons to 57.9 million tons, and for oilseeds from 22 million tons to 21 million tons.
The NBU recalled that last year, the grain harvest in Ukraine fell to 56.2 million tons from 59.8 million tons in 2023, while oilseeds fell from 21.7 million tons to 20 million tons.
On August 1, Feofaniya Clinical Hospital of the State Administration announced a tender for the purchase of motor vehicle insurance services.
According to a notice in the Prozorro electronic public procurement system, the expected cost of the services is UAH 219,574. The deadline for submitting bids is August 10.
Issue No. 2 – July 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We consider the current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios for future developments.
Analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market
The second half of July, and especially its last days, brought a number of important events and indicators that determine the exchange rate trajectory and currency expectations for the coming weeks and months.
At the same time, the dominance of external factors in shaping exchange rate dynamics in the Ukrainian market is becoming increasingly apparent. Internal factors continue to act as situational catalysts for short-term fluctuations, but do not influence broad long-term trends.
International context
Two key benchmarks for global markets — US GDP for Q2 and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision — were announced on the same day, shaping a new set of expectations.
The US economy grew by 3.0% y/y in the second quarter, significantly exceeding forecasts (2.3–2.4%) and recovering from a 0.5% decline in the previous quarter. Against this backdrop, markets reacted as expected: the dollar strengthened, government bond yields rose, and US stock indices firmed. This demonstrates that the dollar is regaining its function as a “currency of strength” rather than just a “safe haven currency” for a certain period of time, which has a direct impact on the markets of developing economies, including Ukraine.
At the same time, the Fed kept its key rate at 4.25–4.50% — unchanged for the fifth time in a row. However, the tone of the accompanying statement, as well as the split in the Committee (9–2), indicates a wait-and-see but no longer monolithic position on the part of the regulator. A wing has clearly formed within the Fed that is already inclined to ease policy. This has reinforced market expectations of a rate cut, with the probability of a September reduction estimated at 68%, creating the conditions for a possible global correction of the dollar in the coming months.
Against the backdrop of news from the US, the IMF updated its global forecast, confirming overall macroeconomic stability: global economic growth is expected to be 3.0% (+0.2 percentage points) in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. At the same time, the forecast for the US has been raised to 1.9% (2025) and 2.0% (2026), and for the eurozone to 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively. The main drivers of optimism are a weak dollar, softer trade barriers, and the unexpected resilience of China, which remains one of the engines of the global economy. All this creates a positive environment for risk appetite, but at the same time changes the logic of positioning of major currencies.
At the same time, the euro came under short-term pressure after the conclusion of a new trade agreement between the EU and the US. The agreement on a permanent 15% tariff on most goods from the EU to the US, despite avoiding the worst-case scenario (a 30% tariff), was perceived by the markets as a deterioration in conditions for European exports. The euro lost 1% against the dollar, its biggest daily drop since May. This added volatility to the EUR/USD pair and indirectly affected cross rates on the Ukrainian currency market.
Long-term factors putting pressure on the euro and driving the dollar higher could be an agreement between the EU and the US on trade tariffs, with Europe committing to invest $600 billion in the US economy and the EU committing to purchase $750 billion worth of energy from the US. This means a potential outflow of liquidity from EU economies and the creation of long-term support for the US dollar as a result of stable long-term demand for it, provided that these agreements are implemented. However, the weakening of the euro against the dollar could drive growth in the eurozone economies by increasing the price competitiveness of its goods and services.
In such an environment, the level of international influence on the hryvnia exchange rate increases, and the logic of the domestic market increasingly depends not on the local economy, but on global expectations and signals from the central banks of partner countries.
Domestic Ukrainian context
At first glance, the domestic currency market looks calm: net demand for cash dollars has fallen to almost zero, and banks have imported as much cash as they have exported. At the same time, dollar imports have decreased by 17%, while the euro’s share of imports has increased (+2% in June).
This confirms that the shift in preferences of the population and businesses in favor of the euro is already a stable macro trend and also signals a strengthening of the behavioral factor in domestic exchange rate formation. The pressure of the behavioral factor or attempts by market operators to earn a windfall premium may become the most powerful and unpredictable drivers of the currency market.
At the same time, inflation risks remain significant. The NBU has worsened its inflation forecast for 2025 to 9.7% (previously 8.7%) and for 2026 to 6.6%. Among the reasons are the weakening of the hryvnia against the euro, which leads to higher prices for euro-denominated imports (fuel, energy, consumer and industrial goods), high business costs, and uncertainty about harvests and future exports. The long-term consequences of the war are a constant source of risk and uncertainty. Despite a temporary slowdown in consumer inflation to 14.3% in June, inflation expectations remain at 10%+, fueling fears among the population and businesses about the purchasing power of the hryvnia and supporting demand for foreign currency.
Another critical factor looms on the horizon: the external financing gap for 2026, previously estimated at $40–60 billion, has narrowed to $19 billion. This is a good sign of a potential easing of pressure on the Ukrainian currency market and the banking regulator’s reserves in the longer term, although the problem of resource shortages remains unresolved. The additional budgetary burden (already UAH 450 billion to the 2025 budget) and the concentration of 66% of spending on defense are creating a structural deficit, the coverage of which is a matter for negotiations with the IMF, the EU, and the G7, as well as further support from international partners.
Thus, Ukraine’s currency market enters August highly sensitive to global signals. The dollar has been supported by strong macro data and expectations of a soft shift in Fed policy. The euro is experiencing short-term volatility under pressure from geopolitical factors, but remains attractive to Ukrainian households and businesses as a tool for saving and parking free liquidity to protect against depreciation.
Ukrainian factors: inflation, behavioral shifts, operators’ appetite for a premium, and demand for cash — continue to have a situational impact. However, the main trajectory of the exchange rate will be determined not in Kyiv, but in Washington, Brussels, and New York.
Earlier, the KYT Group team of analysts published scenario models for the development of the situation on international currency markets on its blog: we are already seeing the realization of some of the signals and likely long-term scenarios predicted in our models — you can find them at this link for a broader understanding of the global context.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
In July, the dollar-hryvnia exchange rate continued to demonstrate high stability with insignificant intraday volatility that did not turn into trend movements.
For the second month in a row, the market has maintained a balance between supply and demand, with the USD/UAH currency pair trading in a narrow range: the buying rate offered by banks is 41.50–41.60 UAH/USD, and the selling rate is within the range of 41.85–41.95 UAH/USD. Market operators’ buying and selling quotes remain equidistant from the official exchange rate, which also remains relatively stable despite the sensational headlines in the media and plays an anchoring stabilizing role — there are insignificant fluctuations in the market.
The spread between buying and selling is maintained in the range of 40–50 kopecks, which is an indicator of the absence of pressure on the exchange rate and support for the exchange rate consensus reached between the regulator and market operators. Exchange rate fluctuations do not exceed 0.2%, which is exceptionally calm behavior for a period when such important macroeconomic signals are announced, indicating that developments are as expected and the most likely scenarios have already been factored into current exchange rates by market operators.
Key factors:
• Strong macro data from the US. A 3.0% jump in GDP and the Fed keeping rates steady signal that the dollar has room to grow and might get a short-term boost. But this potential hasn’t fully kicked in yet because the market is mostly waiting to see what happens next.
• Expectations of a rate cut in the US in September. Despite the strong report, markets see room for correction, which limits a sudden noticeable strengthening of the dollar.
• High level of NBU foreign exchange reserves (over $45 billion) and controlled interventions by the regulator allow for a calm market balance.
• Balance in the cash currency market and net demand for the dollar falling to almost zero — these factors remove internal pressure on the exchange rate and reflect the absence of psychological pressure on the market.
• No strong seasonal import load — importers are not showing increased activity, which also reduces the likelihood of short-term exchange rate jumps.
• Calm population. Most of the cash demand has shifted to the euro, leaving the USD/UAH in a state of technical calm.
Forecast:
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
In the second half of July, the euro entered a phase of steady correction on the domestic Ukrainian market. After a period of gradual decline since the beginning of the month, the last days of July were marked by a sharp acceleration in the decline in quotations. The most significant weekly decline in the euro exchange rate since April 2024 was recorded: the total decline since the beginning of the month was more than 1.5 UAH/EUR, of which about 1 UAH/EUR was in the last days of the month, when a clear downward acceleration was observed.
The buying rate fell from 48.85 to 47.55 UAH/EUR, and the selling rate fell from 49.55 to 48.30 UAH/EUR. The official exchange rate of the NBU was adjusted from 48.98 to 48.10 UAH/EUR. However, there was no significant deviation of currency market operators’ buying and selling rates for the euro from the official rate.
The spread between buying and selling narrowed from over 70–80 kopecks to 50–60 kopecks, although it showed some fluctuation in the last days of the month without forming a noticeable trend, which only indicates attempts by currency market operators to avoid losses due to volatility.
Overall, the exchange rate dynamics of recent weeks indicate that after a phase of active buying in June and early July, the market began to lock in profits, responding to changes in the external environment.
Key factors:
• New EU-US trade deal. A permanent 15% tariff on most goods from the EU to the US caused a sharp reversal of expectations: the euro lost 1% against the dollar in a day, which immediately affected the Ukrainian market.
• Global strengthening of the dollar. Strong US GDP and Fed rhetoric in favor of a cautious approach to rate cuts created the foundation for a revaluation of the euro.
• Behavioral correction phase. The market was saturated with cash euros: in June, banks brought €323 million into Ukraine (almost as much as in dollars), and after a wave of buying, solvent demand was exhausted. This prompted a correction after overbuying.
• Weakening import pressure. Some of the previously purchased euros are not converted into commodity imports immediately, which reduces demand in the market at the moment and will stabilize it in the future, as importers have built up liquidity reserves in euros and their future demand may be lower.
• The impact of public expectations. After intense demand growth in June, the mood of some citizens and market operators became more cautious, which affected the exchange rate dynamics.
Forecast:
Recommendations: flexibility is the only constant in times of turbulence.
For businesses:
For investors and savings:
For speculators:
This material has been prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical, and professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no responsibility for any consequences arising from the use of this information.
All information is provided “as is,” without any additional guarantees of completeness, timeliness, or updating or supplementation. Users of this material should independently assess the risks and make informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they themselves consider sufficiently qualified.
Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service FinTech platform that has been successfully operating in the non-bank financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYТ Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the Ukrainian financial market, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity capital.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and are equipped with modern equipment for the convenience, security, and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the National Bank of Ukraine. KYT Group adheres to EU standards of operation, with branches in Poland and plans for cross-border expansion into other European countries.
The volume of the domestic private market for military risk insurance is estimated at UAH 40-60 million, which does not correspond to the scale of the risks involved, according to a meeting of the League of Insurance Organizations of Ukraine (LIOU) on the creation of a military risk insurance system.
As noted on the LIOU website, unlike in 2022, insurance companies have now accumulated statistics on military risk insurance and have experience in concluding insurance contracts, settling claims, and making payments.
Insurers emphasized that even in a situation where a significant number of international reinsurers are refraining from active cooperation, awaiting market stabilization and security guarantees, some Ukrainian insurers have nevertheless gained access to international reinsurance, which has made it possible to increase insurance coverage limits, primarily for small and medium-sized businesses.
However, with the increasing frequency and intensity of shelling, insurers and reinsurers are forced to constantly revise their terms and conditions. For example, reinsurers’ quotes (net rates) increase from 4-5% to 8-10% during certain periods. This shows that insuring against military risks in a country that is already at war is an extremely difficult task. This is why the Ukrainian market is not attractive to international reinsurers, according to the press release.
Modeling various options for creating a military risk insurance system, insurers also noted the importance of public-private partnerships with the involvement of international institutions in this process.
At the same time, they noted that, in their opinion, the availability of state subsidies is not a guarantee of obtaining reinsurance and resolving the issue, and may even complicate it, since the state is highly likely to incur 100% losses, meaning that such insurance ceases to be insurance and becomes financing. Therefore, the main question remains who will pay the compensation and how, since neither the state nor Ukrainian insurers are able to assume the country’s military risks during the war, the LSU notes.
According to market experts, the risks, conditions, and definitions must be understandable and acceptable to foreign reinsurers, and the model must correspond to international analogues (insurance against terrorism (sabotage) risks). In addition, a working group should be set up with the participation of MPs, representatives of the Ministry of Economy, the NBU, international brokers, and insurers providing such insurance to study these issues and present the market’s position at a meeting with international reinsurers and other partners. These proposals will be forwarded to the parliamentary committee on finance, tax, and customs policy.
“International practice in insuring military risks does not have a ready-made solution for Ukraine, so developing one is primarily a task for specialists in the global insurance and reinsurance markets, and this is a real challenge,” emphasized Viktor Berlin, president of the LSU, whose words are quoted in the report.
Unemployment in the eurozone stood at 6.2% in June, according to the European Union’s statistical office. In May, according to the revised data, it was also at 6.2%, not 6.3%, as previously reported. Analysts on average expected unemployment to remain at the previously announced May level, according to Trading Economics.
For comparison, in June 2024, the unemployment rate was 6.4%.
Unemployment was at a record low of 6.2% in October and November 2024, then rose, and in April fell again to the lowest level on record.
In June, the number of unemployed in the euro area decreased by 62 thousand compared to the previous month, to 10.7 million people.
The share of unemployed youth (population under 25) fell to 14.1% from 14.3%.
The lowest unemployment rate among the largest eurozone countries was recorded in Germany (3.7%), and the highest in Spain (10.4%).
In the European Union, unemployment remained at 5.9% in June. In the same month of 2024, it was 6%.
IC “Express Insurance” in June 2025 settled insured events under hull insurance contracts in Greece, Spain, Italy, France, Poland, Croatia, Romania and Belgium for the total amount of UAH 2,439 million, the insurer’s website reports. It is emphasized that all cases, on which payments were made this month, were connected with road accidents.
So in particular, while driving on a high-speed highway in Greece, the car of the company’s client suddenly became uncontrollable – the car had a torn off wheel. The car was pushed onto a jackknife, after which it was dragged for about 100-150 meters. As a result of the collision, the front right part of the car was significantly damaged, including suspension elements and the bottom of the engine. The payout amounted to more than UAH 2 mln.
Ten insured events occurred during parking – in different countries, but under similar circumstances. The total amount of payments on all cases amounted to almost UAH 295 thousand.
Four insured events occurred with parked cars. In each of them the drivers discovered the damage after returning to the car. The total amount of payments on these cases amounted to UAH 105,5 thousand.
Express Insurance” ALC was founded in 2008 with participation of Ukravto Group.
The company is represented in more than 60 points of sale throughout Ukraine and actively expands the network of partner service stations.
