According to Serbian Economist, the energy partnership between Belgrade and Baku is rapidly moving beyond symbolic diversification and beginning to transform into a separate supply chain capable of significantly influencing the balance of the Serbian gas market. Azerbaijan’s Deputy Minister of Energy Orkhan Zeynalov said that by the end of 2026 – early 2027, Azerbaijan could cover up to 20% of Serbia’s gas needs, which, according to him, directly strengthens energy security by reducing dependence on a single source.
The context is simple: Serbia has remained predominantly dependent on gas imports in recent years, and the issue of diversification has become part of a broader agenda, ranging from heating and electricity prices to negotiations with the EU on energy integration. Reuters previously estimated that Serbia receives about 80% of its gas from Russia, with alternative volumes currently serving as insurance and a bargaining chip.
The legal framework for the Azerbaijani route has already been established. The contract between SOCAR and Srbijagas, signed in November 2023, provides for the supply of up to 400 million cubic meters per year in 2024-2026, with the possibility of increasing volumes after 2027. At the same time, official statements by the governments of Serbia and Azerbaijan have recorded separate seasonal agreements for additional volumes during the winter period.
Actual deliveries from Azerbaijan began in 2024, but so far have remained small compared to the overall market. According to data cited by Azerbaijan’s State Statistics Committee, Serbia received about 72.6 million cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas between February and December 2024. For comparison, according to estimates by Azerbaijani and regional sources, in January-November 2025, supplies had already grown to 192 million cubic meters.
Why is Belgrade taking this more seriously than “just another contract”? Because gas is beginning to be linked to industrial projects. In mid-February 2026, the leaders of Serbia and Azerbaijan confirmed plans to build a 500 MW gas-fired power plant, which is seen as a joint project with an estimated commissioning date of 2029. Industry media estimate the investment at around €600 million. Such a plant is capable of creating stable demand for fuel and, accordingly, pushing forward discussions on long-term supply terms — which is why Baku’s statements separately mention the topic of gas prices for future generation.
The stated target of 15-20% seems realistic precisely as a “market share” rather than the maximum technical capacity of the route. Even with Serbia’s moderate consumption, this means the need to reach several hundred million cubic meters per year on a sustainable basis and to secure a commercial supply formula after 2026. At the same time, Baku is making it clear that it sees Serbia as a potential energy hub for the Western Balkans and is looking for additional areas of cooperation, including projects in the field of green energy and hydrogen.
