The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), calculated by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), rose to 45 in February from 37.5 in January (index values from 0 to 100) and continued to remain below the neutral level (50), according to a survey of enterprises published by the NBU on Wednesday.
“In February 2023, the BAEI was 45.0, up from 37.5 in January 2023. In February, companies significantly softened their negative expectations for their economic performance. Economic activity is gradually reviving across all sectors, apart from the construction sector,” the central bank said, commenting on the results of the index.
As the National Bank said, the revival of companies is being held back the most by power shortages, higher production costs because of purchases of uninterruptible power supplies and fuel, and depressed consumer demand.
The NBU said that companies markedly improved their views about their trade turnover, purchases of goods for sale, and inventories/stocks of goods for sale.
In addition, respondents remained downbeat about their total staff numbers, the DI being 43.2, down from 44.5 in January.
At the same time, expectations of both growth in purchase prices and the cost of contractors’ services, as well as prices/tariffs for own products/services, softened.
The National Bank said that the gradual revival of power supply and purchases of uninterruptible power supplies softened the pessimistic expectations of industrial companies in February, as the sector’s DI moved to 47.2, up from 40.6 in January 2023.
“Respondents declared intentions to step up production (for the first time since October 2022), while also expecting an increase in the number of new export orders for products (for the first time since February 2022), the DIs being 50.7 and 50.4 respectively, up from 34.0 and 39.6 in January. While remaining negative, respondents’ expectations for the number of new orders for products improved noticeably, the DI being 48.6, up from 38.0 in January,” the NBU said, describing the situation in the industry.
Respondents markedly improved their views about their trade turnover and the amount of goods purchased for sale, the DIs being 47.4 and 46.8 respectively, compared to 21.6 and 23.7 in January.
“Respondents expected a decrease in their inventories/stocks of goods for sale, the DI being 51.1, down from 61.9 in January. Companies reported weaker intentions to cut their trade margins, the DI being 46.3, up from 39.2 in January. Respondents slightly softened their expectations of a rise in purchase prices, the DI being 30.0, up from 24.7 in January. At the same time, companies expected the price of goods purchased for sale to rise at a faster pace, the DI being 61.1, up from 54.6 in January,” the NBU added.
Services companies continued to report a gloomy economic outlook, the DI being 43.2 in February, up from 37.2 in January. Respondents significantly softened their negative expectations for the amount of services provided, the number of new orders, and the amount of services that are being provided, the DIs being 43.8, 42.6 and 46.9 respectively, compared to 35.2, 34.4 and 38.8 in January.
“With less strong expectations of a rise in purchase prices, companies reported weaker intentions to raise their selling prices, the DIs being 23.8 and 58.6 respectively, compared to 18.4 and 60.4 in January,” the regulator said.
Construction companies reported the most guarded views about their economic performance on the back of seasonal factor, consumers’ weak purchasing power and power shortages, the DI being 33.5 in February, down from 34.5 in January. Companies worsened their negative expectations of the amount of construction work done, the DI being 28.6, down from 30.0 in January. At the same time, respondents expected a drop in the number of new orders and in purchases of raw materials and supplies, the DIs being 28.6 and 31.0 respectively, compared to 27.5 and 25.0 in January.
