The president of Kyivstar, the market’s largest mobile operator, Oleksandr Komarov, expects the sector to grow in 2023 due to continued demand for modern communication services, the effect of a low base and de-occupation, but this growth will be relatively small due to a decline in the active subscriber base and a reduction in profitability.
“The main factor of any market is its capacity in terms of the number of consumers. We see it stabilizing around the level of about 10% of the active base that was before the war. Geographically, we have stabilized. Moreover, I expect that there will be some de-occupation, and we will be able to grow at the expense of the returned territories,” he said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
Komarov added that the first quarter of 2022 was still “more or less normal,” but in the following months the market began to decline.
“That is, I think that the industry will recover a bit in the second, third, and fourth quarters: not only because it is growing, but also because the comparison bases have fallen significantly,” the Kyivstar president explained his expectations.
He also noted that communication services are critical services for consumers, and therefore demand for them is not elastic. “Moreover, the crisis encourages people to spend more on telecommunications: people want to reserve their ability to stay in touch. During the blackouts, we had an incredible growth of new connections across the Ukrainian telecom market,” Komarov said.
Kyivstar’s president also pointed to the continued demand for more modern communication services, naming LTE and 4G services as the key drivers, which had been driving the market growth of 15% annually in the last three years before the war.
“In 2022, the market grew by 5%, while LTE consumption grew by almost 30% year-on-year, with the LTE customer base increasing by only 4%. That is, consumption is the main driver that continues to pull this market upwards: people need more mobile Internet,” stated the head of the largest mobile operator.
Among the factors that will negatively affect revenues, he pointed to the ongoing decline in the active roaming subscriber base due to the protracted war. According to him, it is slow because it is restrained by the “roaming like at home” service.
Komarov emphasized that this service and a number of other factors have led to a significant increase in the company’s expenses, which has put pressure on profits and reduced profitability.
“In the first quarter, Kyivstar’s total revenue in hryvnia grew by 6% year-on-year, while profit grew by only 1%, and overall profitability decreased to 59% from 62% in 2022,” the company’s president said.
Among the factors, he named an increase in the share of negative or very low-margin income, such as roaming, rising risk costs, restoration costs, and social assistance. In particular, Komarov said, Kyivstar provided financial charity and bonus services worth UAH 1.08 billion over the 15 months of the war.
“Of course, it is also inflation: cost inflation, electricity inflation, wage inflation, etc.”, added the CEO.
Komarov noted that Kyivstar’s investments and expenditures are largely made in foreign currency, and the devaluation of the hryvnia has led to a year-on-year decline in purchasing or investment power in foreign currency of 8%.
“As a company that is integrated into domestic consumption on the one hand and purchasing equipment from international suppliers on the other, we have to understand that the pre-war formula of average industry profitability will not work for the next few years. We will face significant pressure on profitability,” stated the head of the largest mobile operator.
He also said that it would be impossible to raise telecom tariffs to the extent necessary to compensate for the increase in costs.
According to him, certain inflationary elements are built into pricing. In addition, customers follow their consumption by switching from old tariff plans to new ones. On average, there are up to 100 thousand such migrations per month, Komarov said.
As reported earlier, Kyivstar increased its hryvnia revenue by 6% in the first quarter of 2023 (down 17.2% in dollars) compared to the same period in 2022, to UAH 8.346 billion. EBITDA increased by 1% in UAH (down 21.2% in USD) year-on-year to UAH 4.921 billion.
The subscriber base in the first quarter of 2023 amounted to 24.3 million, down 6.7% year-on-year, while the number of 4G users increased by 4.2%, or 600 thousand, to 13.3 million, and 4G penetration in the subscriber base reached 54.6%.
