Unfavorable weather conditions in the south of Ukraine can affect the yield of barley, influence the gross yield of harvested barley and against the background of high world prices for the crop the barley market will experience the period of “price swing”, the experts of the analytical center of the cooperative “Start”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agricultural Council (AAR) said.
“Due to weather conditions in the south, low-nature grain is fixed, as well as the problem of lodging of barley, which will negatively affect the yield of the crop. This situation will contribute to an increase in barley prices, the world market is also in an upward trend. However with the start of harvesting we can expect a temporary reduction in demand and prices for barley,” explained the analysts.
According to their information, at present the indicative barley price is $130/t but in the near future it may rise to $145/t. Given the weather factors, the supply will not increase this week. A surge in barley can be expected after July 15, and before then a supply shortage could push prices up in the market.
“July will be an extremely volatile month in the barley market and the most unfavorable for sales: despite the fact that the low harvest will support prices, the marks risk to fall to $125/t. However, since August the growth of prices will start, which will reach at least $190-200 per ton, the maximum price level we will see in December,” forecasts the experts of “Pusk”, adding that after the recent uprising in Russia, world markets are more active and grain prices have increased.
Experts said that the biggest barley buyer now is China that plans to buy 7 million tons of barley. It contracts a lot from France, which will not be able to cover such volume on its own.
Ukrainian barley will be in demand in China, but logistics remains a problem area for deliveries from Ukraine,” the PUSK summarized.
