The law on raising the bank profit tax from 18% to 50% in 2023 and to 25% in the following years was adopted without discussions with banks, it is discriminatory and has long-term negative consequences for the investment and business climate in Ukraine, said Oleksandr Pysaruk, Chairman of the Board of Raiffeisen Bank (Kyiv).
“Excessive profits of banks cannot be determined based on the results of one year. Retrospective taxation of excessive profits for 2023, as well as an increase in bank profit taxes in the future, is unreasonable and discourages bank shareholders from investing in this business,” the head of Ukraine’s largest bank with foreign capital said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
Pysaruk emphasized that he supports the need to temporarily raise the bank profit tax in the current circumstances and has publicly stated this. According to him, the version of the law approved in the first reading to increase the tax to 36% for 2024-2025 was discussed with banks and was fair.
According to the banker, the retroactive taxation approved without discussion at the end of the year creates a very dangerous precedent and tax uncertainty for all economic agents, especially for foreign investors. “Retrospective is bad in itself, but when retrospective is linked to 50% instead of the existing 18%, it is a shock,” he added.
Commenting on the 50% rate, Pysaruk explained it as a desire to collect an additional 0.3% of GDP from banks as part of the revision of the program with the IMF, when state-owned banks are already paying large dividends.
“In fact, the payers of this record-high tax are private banks, of which the largest tax burden falls on banks with foreign capital. And the retrospective taxation is compounded by disproportionate and discriminatory treatment of private shareholders of the banking system,” the banker stated.
He noted that the problem is also the unfair singling out of banks from the rest of the economy in terms of raising their income tax to 25% on a permanent basis in the coming years.
“Why are they the only ones to receive the tax increase? Why 25% and why permanently? Why not 28%, 22%, or 20%? … This is an example for investors and business in general: if you are transparent, you will be taxed even more. And at the same time, you leave a bunch of economy that does not pay taxes or pays little,” Pysaruk said.
In his opinion, the tax on banks starting in 2024 should have been discussed as part of the preparation of the National Revenue Strategy prescribed in the program with the IMF, which the Ministry of Finance is obliged to present by the end of this year and which declares the expansion of the tax base.
The head of Raiffeisen Bank also emphasized that banks are a cyclical business, and its profitability should be assessed over a fairly long period of time, on average 7-10 years. According to him, in the period from 2013 to 2023, the total return on equity of Ukrainian banks (excluding PrivatBank and its nationalization) was 69%, i.e. approximately 6% per annum in hryvnia, while the cost of capital in any year after 2013 exceeded 20% per annum.
“That is, the last ten years have been unprofitable for bank shareholders. The situation is much worse for foreign shareholders of Ukrainian banks who calculate their total income in euros. Over the past ten years, the banking system has suffered a total loss of 52%, approximately -8% per annum in euros,” Pysaruk said.
He explained this by the large losses of Ukrainian banks in 2014-2016, the almost fourfold devaluation of the national currency and the inability to receive dividends for several years.
“Today, the banking business in Ukraine is unprofitable. The cost of capital is very high due to high inflation and very high risks in the country. And I’m not even talking about the war,” stated the Chairman of the Board of Raiffeisen Bank.
In his opinion, the adopted law will discourage strategic banking investors from participating in the privatization of state-owned banks, which is necessary given their high market share.
“We may be left with a banking system with an excessive share of state-owned banks for a very long time,” Pysaruk said.
He added that this approach also does not stimulate foreign direct investment in other industries. “This is a very bad story for a country that needs external assistance both during the war and afterwards for development,” the banker said.
Commenting on the impact of the increased tax directly on Raiffeisen Bank, the Chairman of the Board said that in the short term there will be no significant impact, as the bank has excess capital and liquidity. “We will pass the NBU’s stress test without any problems and will continue to support our clients,” Pysaruk said.
At the same time, he believes that some other banks that are not as well capitalized may face problems.
“The National Bank will probably have to mitigate its plans to recapitalize banks, because it was the party that agreed to this decision. Because taxing banks in such a cruel, unfair way and then demanding capital is an additional horror story for investors,” the banker said.
He added that, combined with the NBU’s further increase in capital buffer requirements in line with EU standards, the higher corporate tax will reduce banks’ ability to generate capital to meet the increased demand for loans as Ukraine develops after the war.
Pysaruk also suggested that some banks may appeal to an international court because the adoption of such a law violates the provisions of intergovernmental agreements on investment protection, citing Spain as an example where banks challenged the windfall tax.
The Chairman of the Board of Raiffeisen Bank, who was formerly the First Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine and then worked for the IMF for three years, also expressed regret that the Fund had agreed to such a tax increase. According to Pysaruk, this is due to the program’s basic assumptions, which are under threat, of ending the war in mid-2024 and a certain level of international assistance.
“The IMF has to draw up a macroeconomic model and calculate the debtor’s ability… to repay the loan. And this tax was probably needed for such a model to be developed. But the price of the issue is exactly this: in order to save this program and continue it, laws are being introduced that reduce Ukraine’s already low investment attractiveness and may hinder plans to attract private foreign capital to rebuild Ukraine after the war,” the banker said.
According to the National Bank of Ukraine, as of October 1, 2023, Raiffeisen Bank ranked 4th in terms of assets (UAH 196.35 billion) among 63 banks operating in the country. Its net profit in January-September this year amounted to UAH 6.14 billion compared to UAH 2.39 billion in January-September last year.
In October 2005, the bank became part of the Austrian banking group Raiffeisen Bank International AG. Currently, Raiffeisen Group owns 68.21% of the bank’s shares, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development owns 30%.
