In 2024, Ukraine will be able to harvest 50-60 million tons of major crops, while grain exports will amount to 35-40 million tons, predicts Sergiy Feofilov, founder of UkrAgroConsult, an information and analytical company.
“The crop structure will be shaped by the profitability of a particular crop. Current trends show that priority will be given to oilseeds, soybeans are particularly promising, and sugar beet is the most promising crop,” UkrAgroConsult quoted him as saying.
According to the CEO of the agency, the key factors in agriculture in 2024 will be security, logistics, profitability and international cooperation.
“The process of Ukraine’s cooperation with the EU countries has significantly accelerated in the context of the war. It will also be extremely important to continue creating mechanisms that would further increase the benefits of cooperation for all participants. I would also like to emphasize the Ukrainian land market, which continues to develop despite the difficulties of wartime,” he said.
Mr. Feofiolov reminded that in 2023, the main source of financing for the agricultural sector was the Ukrainian farmer’s own resources. Limited logistics led to a decrease in producer margins. In 2022 and 2023, the profitability of agricultural enterprises declined sharply, so the financial reserves of the pre-war harvest years of 2020 and 2021 allowed them to survive.
The expert noted that the yields of most major crops were close to record highs not only due to the weather factor, but also with the help of Ukrainian specialists who quickly adapted technologies to military challenges. This allowed Ukraine to grow 22 million tons of wheat in 2023.
Mr. Feofilov also noted that UkrAgroConsult’s forecast of last year’s growing role of the processing sector has been confirmed. This was especially noticeable in the oilseed industry. Never before has the country processed so much rapeseed and soybeans,” he emphasized.
Among the main achievements of the Ukrainian agricultural sector in 2023, the CEO of UkrAgroConsult named the efficient operation of logistics corridors – both the grain corridor until mid-July and the new humanitarian corridor, which resumed operations in October 2023. Investments in new logistics chains have made it possible to increase the role of the Danube ports and export grain in transit through the port of Constanta. Efficient maritime and Danube logistics have reduced the load on both Danube ports and land crossings, opened access to Chinese and other Asian markets, and contributed to higher prices and farmers’ profits.
“These are the drivers that increase the optimism of our forecasts,” stated the head of UkrAgroConsult.
