The production of rapeseed in Ukraine in 2024 may reach 4.3 mln tonnes, up 4% from the previous estimate, but 7% down from the 2023 figures, according to the forecast of APK-Inform information and analytical agency.
“The forecast was adjusted due to the increase of the planted area under this crop to 1.49 mln ha (+4% to the previous estimate; -4% to 2023),” the analysts explained.
They also increased the export potential of rapeseed in 2024/2025 MY to 3.6 mln tonnes, up 2% from the previous estimate, but 2% down from the previous season-2023/2024.
Experts noted that the condition of winter rapeseed after wintering was mostly assessed as good and satisfactory. However, the lack of moisture observed in the soil due to the rather dry March and the first half of April raised concerns about the yield potential. The situation is expected to be affected by the cyclone that entered the country this week.
“The popularity of rapeseed in Ukraine has increased significantly in recent years, driven by the consistently high demand for the oilseed from European importers. Therefore, rapeseed in Ukraine is now one of the most highly liquid crops and it is a fairly quick way for an agricultural producer to get money,” the agency stated.
In addition, in the last few years, the price of rapeseed on the domestic market has been quite attractive for farmers and among the key oilseeds is second only to soybean prices, but it is quite sensitive to world production and to the price dynamics on the European market of this oilseed.
“In the new season, the prospects for Ukrainian rapeseed are also quite good: the production of this oilseed in the EU is expected to decrease (from -2% according to the European Commission to -10% according to Strategie Grains), which is already creating a rush in the market. However, according to the recent estimates of FAS USDA, in 2024 the production of Australian canola may increase by 14%, which together with Canadian oilseed is the direct competitor of Ukrainian rapeseed on the European market,” – forecasts APK-Inform.
