The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has lowered its estimate of the potential harvest in 2024 by 1.5 million tons compared to the previous forecast – to 74.6 million tons of grains and oilseeds, the association’s press service reports.
According to the report, the current forecast is based on the average weather conditions over the past five years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in spring and summer may make adjustments.
“The potential decline in the harvest in the new season is caused by both a reduction in sown areas (mainly under grain crops due to unfavorable price conditions on the world market and relatively expensive export logistics) and a somewhat dry period in May this year in a number of regions in the east and south of the country,” the UGA explained and added that under such conditions, exports in the 2024-2025 marketing year will amount to 43.5 million tons.
According to the forecast of the UGA, in the ending season, exports of grains and oilseeds may reach 53.2 million tons of grains and oilseeds.
The UGA forecasts the wheat harvest in 2024 at 19.1 million tons, which is 900 thousand tons less than the previous estimate (22 million tons in 2023). Potential wheat exports in 2024/2025 MY may amount to about 13 mln tonnes, taking into account that at the beginning of the season the carry-over stocks will be about 2.4 mln tonnes.
According to the UGA, barley harvest in 2024 may reach 4.6 mln tonnes (5.8 mln tonnes in 2023), and potential exports in 2024/2025 MY can be expected at around 2 mln tonnes (this season barley exports are forecasted at 2.5 mln tonnes).
Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season are deteriorating due to a potential reduction in corn acreage and dry conditions in a number of regions. The UGA estimates the corn harvest forecast at 25.5 million tons, which is 800 thousand tons less than the previous estimate and 4.1 million tons less than last year’s 29.6 million tons. At the same time, potential exports may amount to about 20.5 mln tons (in the current season, exports are expected to reach 26 mln tons).
The UGA expects the sunflower harvest in 2024 to reach 13.7 mln tons (in 2023 – 14.2 mln tons). Potential exports could reach up to 250 thsd tonnes (0.4 mln tonnes in the current season), while sunflower processing for vegetable oil could reach almost 13.6 mln tonnes. In the current season, processing will reach 13.5 mln tons.
In 2024, rapeseed harvest can be expected at 4.3 mln tonnes (in 2023 – 4.5 mln tonnes), while exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 3.4 mln tonnes (in the current season – 3.7 mln tonnes).
As for soybeans, this is the only crop under which farmers can increase the area due to its profitability this year. The soybean harvest is expected to reach 5.5 mln tons in 2024 (4.9 mln tons in 2023). Potential exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 4 mln tons (in the current season it is expected to reach 3.3 mln tons).
As reported, the UGA estimated the harvest in 2023 at 82.8 mln tonnes of grains and oilseeds.
