Ukraine exported almost 3.8 million tons of sunflower meal in the first nine months of the 2023-2024 maketing year (starts in July), which is 23% more than in the same period last season. As the information and analytical agency APK-Inform reported, this figure was the maximum value for September-May in the last four years.
“The main importer of Ukrainian meal in the current season remains the European Union with a share of 45% (39% in the previous MY). Exports of meal in September-May 2023/24 MY in this direction increased by 41%, while to China decreased by 12%,” – said the analysts.
The experts recalled that the European Union approved a “safeguard duty” on imports of most grains, oilseeds and processed products of Russian and Belarusian origin in the amount of EUR95/ton of imported products to the EU, coming into force on July 1.
“In the oilseeds sector, the markets for meal may be affected the most. The export volumes of these products of Russian origin to the EU have been significant and it will be quite problematic to reorient them to other markets. But, given the geographical proximity to the global world importer – the Asian market, some volumes may be reoriented in this direction, in particular, to China”, – they predict.
They noted that in the new season, competition in the Chinese market is expected to intensify, which may lead to further reduction of Ukrainian sunflower meal in favor of Russian sunflower meal.
At the same time, this situation may have a positive impact on the volume of Ukrainian sunflower meal shipments to the European market. EU countries in the current season increased imports of Ukrainian product by 6%, up to 1.2 million tons (for July-May 2023/24 MY – data of the European Commission), but the volume of imports of Russian product for the same period also increased by one third – up to 775 thousand tons.
The EU “safeguard duty” may also have a good impact on the Ukrainian rapeseed meal market, especially ahead of the start of rapeseed processing. Thus, for this sector, the EU is the key sales market with a share of about 73%, and where the Ukrainian product competes quite seriously with Russian and Belarusian products. In particular, the share of Russian rapeseed meal in the total import of this product by the EU countries is 41% in the current season, Belarusian – almost 32% and only about 21% is Ukrainian meal”, – summarized in ‘APK-Inform’.
