The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has worsened its forecast for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for this year from 3-4% to 2.5-3.5% at the end of the fourth review of the EFF extended financing program, while improving its year-end inflation forecast from 8.5% to 8%.
“We are now seeing clear signs of a slowdown in growth due to deteriorating sentiment as military action develops and also due to power outages,” Gavin Gray, head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission to Ukraine, said at a press conference on Friday evening after Ukraine’s tranche was disbursed.
Risks remain exceptionally high, he said, especially due to uncertainties related to the war and external financing.
According to a publication on the Fund’s website, for next year, expectations for Ukrainian economic growth have been worsened to 5.5% from 6.5%, while maintaining the inflation estimate of 7%.
The IMF also lowered its forecast of Ukraine’s nominal GDP for this year to UAH 7.49 trillion from UAH 7.75 trillion in its March review, and for next year to UAH 8.74 trillion from UAH 8.87 trillion.
In terms of GDP composition, the IMF slightly worsened expectations for net exports, while expecting a larger contribution from domestic demand, private consumption and investment compared to the March revision.
The Fund improved the inflation forecast for the end of this year to 8% from 8.5%, maintaining its expectations for its slowdown to 7%, 5.5% and 5% in 2025-2027, but lowered expectations for real income growth this year and next year: by 1.2 p.p. to 8.6% and by 1 p.p., respectively. – to 8.6% and by 1 p.p. to 6.8%. – to 6.8%.
Also, the fourth revision slightly worsened the unemployment estimate: to 14.8% from 14.5% this year and to 14.3% instead of 13.8% next year.
As for the budget, the IMF has increased the estimate of its deficit (excluding grants) – to 20.9% of GDP from 20.2% of GDP for this year, to 10.4% of GDP from 10.3% of GDP for 2025.
According to the document, expectations for external financing have been improved to 12.1% of GDP from 11.8% of GDP and domestic financing to 2.1% of GDP from 2% of GDP, which should be provided by banks, while the estimate of external financing for next year remained at 6.5% of GDP, domestic – 0.9% of GDP with a reduction in the participation of banks to 0.5% of GDP.
As reported, last year the Ukrainian economy, according to the State Statistics Committee, grew by 5.3% after falling by 28.8% a year earlier, and in the first quarter of this year growth amounted to 6.5%.
On April 25 this year, the NBU worsened the country’s GDP growth forecast for this year from 3.6% to 3%.
The government, when approving the draft state budget for the second reading in early November 2023, projected economic growth this year at 4.6%, but the Finance Ministry recently said it had been worsened to 3.5%, and First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko said in mid-June in Berlin that the forecast had been worsened to less than 4%.
