The National Bank of Ukraine has strengthened the official hryvnia-dollar exchange rate by 1 kopeck after the official hryvnia-dollar exchange rate was raised by 9 kopecks on Wednesday, according to the regulator’s website. – to 42.1729 UAH/$1, according to data on the regulator’s website.
The NBU set the reference rate at 12:00 Thursday at 42.1971 UAH/$1 against 42.2650 UAH/$1 a day earlier.
On the cash market, the dollar exchange rate fell by 21 copecks when buying – to UAH 42.61/$1, and when selling – by 17 copecks. – to UAH 42.70/$1.
In turn, analysts of the currency exchange market operator “KIT Group” for the near future predict the hryvnia exchange rate to remain in the corridor of 42-43 UAH/$1, looking at the stabilization process after a seasonal surge in demand for currency at the end of 2024.
“Low economic and business activity in January will contribute to the stability of the exchange rate on a short horizon. Evidence of this is the spread between the rates of buying and selling of the dollar: it remains relatively stable, which indicates the balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market of Ukraine”, – analysts note in the January review-forecast of the situation in the foreign exchange market.
According to their expectations, during the first half of the current 2025 hryvnia is very likely to weaken to 44 UAH/1$, which is fully consistent with the government’s budget forecast for this year.
“Avoidance of exchange rate extremes during the first half of the year will allow the National Bank and the economic block of the government to keep the exchange rate reserve to keep within the projected parameters of the average annual rate of UAH 45/$ according to the results of the current year”, – emphasize the experts of ‘KIT Group’.
At the same time, in their opinion, controlled devaluation may become one of the tools to fill the budget at the expense of duties and other fixed charges in foreign currency, including some excises.
