The Iranian parliament is discussing the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route through which about 20% of global oil and gas exports pass.
Although the final decision must be made by the National Security Council, statements by Iranian authorities are already putting pressure on the global energy market. According to the Iranian news agency IRINN, General Esmail Qasari, a member of the parliamentary security committee, said that “blocking the Strait of Hormuz is under serious consideration.”
Consequences of a possible blockade
1. Sharp rise in oil prices
The Strait of Hormuz accounts for approximately 20% of global maritime oil and gas traffic. A blockade could cause prices to spike: experts from the Financial Times and Rabobank predict an increase to $100–150 per barrel.
2. Inflation and economic turbulence
The UK has warned that energy prices and inflation could rise sharply — “worse than the combined effects of COVID and sanctions against Russia.”
3. Geopolitical tensions and the response of NATO/the US
A blockade will lead to an increased military presence of NATO countries in the region. Analysts believe that the US and Saudi Arabia will take vigorous measures, and military action will increase the risk of regional conflict.
4. Iran’s economic losses
Despite its strategic importance, the restrictions will also hit Iran itself: oil is exported mainly by sea. Export losses, lower revenues, and the risk of sanctions could deal a blow to the Iranian economy.
Analysis: to block or not to block?
The possibility of a blockade has been confirmed, but it remains a “worst-case scenario.”
Military measures: Iran has the capability to lay sea mines, use drones, and deploy a small fleet of ships, but such actions risk logistical failures and retaliation.
Legal aspects: The Strait of Hormuz is considered “international” under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea — a formal ban is possible but legally complicated.
The Iranian parliament is considering an extreme scenario — blocking the Strait of Hormuz — in response to pressure from the US and Israel. This could cause a significant spike in global oil prices, inflation, and economic turmoil. However, such a measure carries enormous risk for Iran. At the moment, it is a psychological and strategic tool, but without action by the National Security Council, it is nothing more than a threat and a bargaining chip.
