Ukraine’s real deficit to cover all military and budget expenditures, which must be covered by foreign aid in 2025-2026, is approximately equal to the 2024 figure and amounts to about $90 billion annually, according to Alexander Paraschiy, head of the analytical department at investment company Concorde Capital.
“Ukraine’s total need for external assistance, both financial and military, averages approximately $90 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026,” he said during a discussion titled “What awaits the economy in 2025 and beyond,” organized by the Center for Economic Strategy on Friday.
Parashchiy noted that in 2024, defense and security spending amounted to approximately $95 billion, this year it is likely to increase to $100-105 billion, and in 2026, according to the new Minister of Defense Denys Shmyhal, the need could reach $120 billion.
He recalled that other state budget needs amount to approximately $42 billion, while Ukraine will be able to collect about $55 billion this year through taxes, fees, dividends, and financing from the NBU’s profits.
“That means we have a hole of about $142-55 billion, which is much more than the financial deficit figure,” the Concorde Capital analyst explained his calculations.
According to him, this need will be covered this year mainly through the EPA program (via frozen Russian assets) and the EU’s Ukraine Facility program, as well as the remainder of previously approved military aid from the United States.
“Let’s hope that the new administration (in the US) will still provide assistance under the new programs. But the biggest question now, unfortunately, is the financing of the war in 2026, because our total need for both financial and military assistance next year could reach $100 billion. And how to cover this need, unfortunately, remains a very big question,” Parashchiy concluded.
As reported, this week Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine needs to cover a deficit of $65 billion per year, of which $40 billion is for budget needs and $25 billion is for domestic defense production.
