The eurozone economy is likely to slow down in the third quarter of 2025 due to ongoing uncertainty in foreign trade and the winding down of “advance” purchases, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said, speaking in Geneva at the World Economic Forum. According to her, in the first half of the year, the region’s export-oriented economy received short-term support from partners replenishing their stocks ahead of the introduction of tariffs in the US, but this factor is “reversing,” and the slowdown was already noticeable in the second quarter.
Lagarde clarified that under the agreement reached between the EU and the US, the “effective average rate” of tariffs on imports from the eurozone is estimated at between 12% and 16%, which is slightly higher than the assumptions of the ECB’s June baseline forecast, but significantly lower than the stress scenario (over 20%). The impact of the deal will be reflected in the ECB’s September macro forecasts, she noted.
According to Eurostat estimates, eurozone GDP grew by only 0.1% q/q in Q2 (after +0.6% in Q1), while July inflation remained at the target 2% year-on-year. Both factors support the scenario of low growth rates with stable “anchor” inflation.
The market as a whole expects the ECB to keep its deposit rate at 2.00%, continuing to assess the impact of tariffs and external conditions on growth prospects. (The meeting schedule is available on the ECB website; the current rate is confirmed by official statistics and national regulators.)
A combination of factors — the receding effect of frontloading, new trade costs (12–16% at the effective average rate) and moderate PMIs — increases the likelihood of a stagnation scenario in the second half of the year: the economy will hover around zero, and growth momentum will depend on the stability of domestic demand and clarity on industry tariffs (pharmaceuticals and semiconductors remain areas of uncertainty).
