The Ganges River is experiencing its worst crisis in 1,300 years, which could have far-reaching socio-economic consequences and exacerbate relations between India and Pakistan over the issue of water resource distribution, Phys.org writes, citing a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Scientists from the Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar and the University of Arizona have found that the current drying of the Ganges from 1991 to 2020 is 76% more severe than the previous worst drought in the 16th century. The river has become drier overall, with droughts occurring more frequently and lasting longer.
The main reason is anthropogenic impact, in particular the warming of the Indian Ocean and atmospheric pollution from industrial and transport aerosols, which weaken the summer monsoon.
To reconstruct the flow over 1,300 years (700–2012 AD), scientists used tree ring data from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas, combining it with modern observations and verifying it against documented droughts and famines.
The Ganges is a key source of drinking water, agriculture, and industry for more than 600 million people in India. The deepening water crisis could directly affect relations between India and Pakistan, as the countries already have long-standing disputes over the distribution of river flows under the 1960 Indus Water Treaty.
Pakistan has repeatedly warned about threats to its water supply due to Indian hydropower projects. The worsening shortage of the Ganges and related changes in other river basins could create new sources of tension between the countries.
The authors of the study call for
improved climate modeling to account for the regional impact of human activity,
the development of new adaptive water management strategies to avoid large-scale shortages.
The Ganges River has historically played not only an economic but also a cultural and religious role in South Asia. At the same time, access to water resources in the region is already the subject of geopolitical competition. Increased climate risks could make this issue another factor in the confrontation between India and Pakistan.
