Passenger traffic across the Ukrainian border in the sixth week of autumn, from October 4 to 10, decreased by 8.2% to 515,000, according to data from the State Border Guard Service.
According to it, the number of arrivals to Ukraine during the week decreased from 278,000 to 253,000, while the number of departures fell from 283,000 to 262,000.
The number of vehicles passing through border checkpoints also decreased to 129,000 from 137,000, while the flow of vehicles carrying humanitarian cargo increased from 481 to 501.
As of 9:00 a.m. this Saturday, according to the State Border Guard Service, the largest queue on the border with Poland consisted of 45 cars at the Shehyni checkpoint, with another 35 cars waiting at Krakivets, 25 at Ustyluh, and 10 at Hrushiv.
On the border with Hungary, small queues of 10 cars were observed at the Tysa, Vylok, and Luzhanka crossings, with another 5 cars waiting at Kosyno, while on the border with Slovakia there was a queue only at the Uzhhorod checkpoint — 11 cars.
Finally, on the border with Romania, 15 cars accumulated at the Porubne checkpoint, while there were no queues at all other points, nor on the border with Moldova.
The total number of border crossings this week was, for the first time in a long while, lower than last year’s (by 1.3%), because last year during the same week pilgrims were leaving after celebrating Rosh Hashanah. Therefore, the number of those leaving the country was significantly higher than those entering — 272,000 versus 250,000 respectively. However, vehicle flow was lower then — 124,000.
Last year, passenger traffic remained at about this level until a slight increase during the autumn school holidays, after which it fell by about 20% before the Christmas and New Year holidays.
As reported, since May 10, 2022, the outflow of refugees from Ukraine that began with the start of the war was replaced by an inflow that lasted until September 23, 2022, totaling 409,000 people. However, since late September, possibly under the influence of news about mobilization in Russia and “pseudo-referendums” in occupied territories, and later massive shelling of energy infrastructure, the number of people leaving began to exceed those entering. From late September 2022 to the first anniversary of the full-scale war, this surplus reached 223,000 people.
During the second year of the full-scale war, the number of border crossings leaving Ukraine exceeded entries by 25,000, in the third year by 187,000, and since the beginning of the fourth year by 189,000.
As Serhiy Soboliev, then Deputy Minister of Economy, noted in early March 2023, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home adds 0.5% to GDP growth.
In its July inflation report, the National Bank worsened its migration forecast: while in April it expected a net inflow to Ukraine of 0.2 million people in 2026, it now forecasts a net outflow of 0.2 million, matching this year’s estimate. “Net return will begin only in 2027 (about 0.1 million people, compared to 0.5 million in the previous forecast),” the NBU added. In absolute terms, the NBU estimates the number of migrants currently abroad at about 5.8 million.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of October 3, 2025, was estimated at 5.192 million (5.138 million as of September 2), and worldwide at 5.753 million (5.696 million).
Within Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data from July this year, there were 3.340 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), compared to 3.757 million in April.
