Global lead and zinc production will exceed demand in 2025 and 2026, according to forecasts by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG).
Refined lead output is expected to increase by 2% this year to 13.34 million tons. This will mainly be driven by increased production in Canada, Germany, India, Mexico, Sweden, and Brazil, while Kazakhstan, the UK, and the US are expected to see a decline in output.
In 2026, global production will grow by 1% to 13.47 million tons due to increased output in Brazil and India, as well as a recovery in Kazakhstan. At the same time, experts predict a decline in China and the UK.
Global lead consumption this year may increase by 1.8% to 13.25 million tons, including 1.8% in Europe, 6.6% in the US, and 0.9% in China. Next year, global demand for the metal is expected to increase by 0.9% to 13.37 million tons, with China seeing a 1.7% decline.
Thus, in 2025, the global market will see a lead surplus of about 91,000 tons, and next year the surplus will increase to 102,000 tons, according to the group’s report.
Global refined zinc production is expected to increase by 2.7% to 13.8 million tons this year.
In particular, production in China will grow by 6.2%. Output is also expected to grow in Norway, where Boliden completed the expansion of the Odda plant’s production capacity by 150,000 tons per year in March. Meanwhile, zinc output is forecast to decline in Italy and Japan due to the closure of Glencore and Toho Zinc plants in these countries, as well as in Brazil, Canada, Mexico, and South Korea.
In 2026, global zinc production will rise by 2.4% to 14.13 million tons. An increase is expected in Brazil, Canada, Norway, and China.
Metal consumption this year may grow by 1.1% to 13.71 million tons. In particular, an increase of 1.3% is expected in China and 0.7% in Europe. Experts also suggest the possibility of an increase in demand in India, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, and Vietnam, as well as a decline in Brazil and South Korea.
In 2026, global demand for zinc will increase by 1% to 13.86 million tons. In particular, it will rise by 0.1% in China, with increases also forecast in Europe, Brazil, India, and the US.
The global zinc surplus in 2025 is expected to be 85,000 tons, and next year – 271,000 tons.
ILZSG, established by the UN in 1959, provides information on the supply and demand for zinc and lead and conducts research on the situation in the global markets for these metals. The group’s members include Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Morocco, Namibia, Norway, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Sweden, Turkey, and the United States, as well as the European Union. These countries account for more than 85% of global lead and zinc production and consumption.
DEMAND, LEAD, PRODUCTION, zinc
