Passenger traffic across the Ukrainian border during the New Year week, from December 27 to January 2, fell by approximately 28.5%, according to data from the State Border Service, which does not include information for December 30.
According to the data, the number of border crossings for departure fell to 232,000 (for comparison, data for December 30 and 23 are not included) from 278,000 a week earlier, while the drop in arrivals was even more significant – to 184,000 from 304,000.
The number of vehicles that passed through checkpoints this week also fell to 77,000 from 109,000 a week earlier, and the flow of vehicles carrying humanitarian cargo fell to 268 from 373.
At the same time, this Saturday, the number of entries increased to 50,000, and exits to 53,000, so queues returned to the border.
According to the State Border Service, as of 3:00 p.m. on Sunday, most of the cars waiting to leave Ukraine at the Krakivets checkpoint were passenger cars – 85. The queue at the Hrushev checkpoint consisted of 50 cars, at the Ustyluh checkpoint – 45, at the Uhryniv checkpoint – 30 cars, and at the Shehyni checkpoint – 20. In addition, 12 buses had accumulated at the Shehyni checkpoint and nine at the Krakivets checkpoint.
Thirty cars were waiting to cross the border with Slovakia at the Uzhhorod and Maly Berezny checkpoints, and three buses were waiting in line at the Uzhhorod checkpoint.
The queues at the border with Hungary were shorter: 15 cars had accumulated at the Tisa, Luzhanka, and Dzvinove checkpoints.
According to the State Border Service, there were no queues at the border with Romania, while at the border with Moldova, there was only a queue at the Mamalyga checkpoint, with 10 cars.
The total number of border crossings this week is roughly the same as last year. During a similar week last year (data for December 30 is not included for comparison), 231,000 people left Ukraine and 196,000 entered, while the flow of cars amounted to 79,000.
Last year, a 22.7% drop in passenger traffic was recorded during this week, and the following week it increased by 16.9%.
As reported, from May 10, 2022, the outflow of refugees from Ukraine, which began with the start of the war, was replaced by an influx that lasted until September 23, 2022, and amounted to 409,000 people. However, since the end of September, possibly influenced by news of mobilization in Russia and “pseudo-referendums” in the occupied territories, followed by massive shelling of energy infrastructure, the number of those leaving exceeded the number of those entering. In total, from the end of September 2022 to the first anniversary of the full-scale war, it reached 223,000 people.
During the second year of full-scale war, the number of border crossings to leave Ukraine, according to the State Border Service, exceeded the number of crossings to enter by 25,000, during the third year by 187,000, and since the beginning of the fourth year by 224,000.
As Serhiy Sobolev, then Deputy Minister of Economy, noted in early March 2023, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP.
In its July inflation report, the National Bank worsened its migration forecast: while in April it expected a net inflow of 0.2 million people to Ukraine in 2026, it now forecasts a net outflow of 0.2 million, which corresponds to the estimate of the net outflow this year. “Net return will only begin in 2027 (about 0.1 million people, compared to 0.5 million in the previous forecast),” the NBU added and confirmed this forecast at the end of October. In absolute terms, the National Bank estimates the number of migrants currently remaining abroad at about 5.8 million.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of December 11, 2025, was estimated at 5.311 million (5.331 million as of November 14), and 5.860 million (5.850 million) worldwide.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data for September this year, there are 3.694 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), compared to 3.340 million in July.
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