In the short term, prices for Ukrainian soybeans will depend on the situation in the global energy market and oil prices, which determine market conditions in the biofuel sector, according to the analytical cooperative “Push,” established within the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
Analysts noted that export prices for Ukrainian soybeans are now significantly higher than at the start of the season. While soybeans were sold for approximately $390–395 per ton in September–November, current prices at ports have reached $450–460 per ton for GMO soybeans and $475 per ton for non-GMO soybeans, which is $60–70 per ton higher than at the start of the season.
“If prices rise by another $10–15 per ton, we could effectively be looking at a nearly $100 increase for the season,” experts noted.
Despite the attractive price conditions, the pace of Ukrainian soybean exports is gradually slowing down. According to analysts, shipment volumes stand at about 48,000 tons, which is significantly lower compared to the start of the marketing year, due to the impact of a 10% export duty, a reduction in domestic stocks, and the high cost of Ukrainian products on global markets.
“Ukrainian soybeans continue to lead in price in key markets. For example, in the Turkish market, they cost nearly $500 per ton, while Brazilian soybeans trade at $470–480 per ton,” the experts explained.
At the same time, prices remain high in the domestic market due to limited supply. According to analysts’ estimates, soybean stocks may fall below 1 million tons in May, which would mean that last year’s harvest has been almost completely depleted.
“Processors will need to operate until the new harvest, so they may be willing to pay a high price. It is possible that processors could raise soybean prices above 21,000 UAH/ton,” the cooperative believes.
At the same time, short-term market conditions will largely depend on the situation in the global energy market. In particular, soybean prices traditionally correlate with oil prices, as soybean oil is widely used in biodiesel production.
Short-term price fluctuations or even price declines are possible in the market in March and the first half of April. At the same time, in the medium term, the market will remain stable due to limited crop stocks and steady demand from domestic processors, concluded “Pushk.”
