On April 19, early parliamentary elections will take place in Bulgaria — already the eighth since 2021. The vote is taking place against the backdrop of prolonged political instability, declining trust in institutions, protests at the end of 2025, and a new surge of struggle around the issue of corruption. According to the assessment of OSCE/ODIHR, the elections are being held under conditions of ongoing fragmentation of the political field and high polarization.
The information and analytical center Experts Club notes that the current campaign is particularly important for the region, as Bulgaria remains a member of the EU and NATO, controls part of the western coast of the Black Sea, and after joining the eurozone from January 1, 2026, has become even more deeply integrated into the European architecture. At the same time, Sofia currently appears to be one of the most politically vulnerable countries in Southeastern Europe.
The main intrigue of the campaign is whether former president Rumen Radev will be able to transform his personal popularity into a stable parliamentary majority. According to AP, his new coalition Progressive Bulgaria approaches the elections as the favorite and in most polls receives over 30% of the vote, ahead of its closest competitor by almost 10 percentage points. In a fresh survey by Gallup International Balkan, published on April 18, among decided voters Progressive Bulgaria receives 30.7%, GERB-UDF — 20.4%, and the pro-European coalition Continue the Change — Democratic Bulgaria — 10.4%. They are followed by MRF – New Beginning with 10.2% and Vazrazhdane with 6.6%; BSP-United Left is at the threshold with 3.9%.
Thus, the main players in these elections look as follows. First, “Progressive Bulgaria” of Rumen Radev — a new center-left coalition that builds its campaign on the promise to break the “oligarchic model” and relaunch governance of the country. Second, GERB-UDF of Boyko Borisov — a traditionally strong center-right force that has long dominated Bulgarian politics. Third, Continue the Change — Democratic Bulgaria, a centrist and pro-European bloc that focuses on an anti-corruption agenda. MRF — New Beginning, associated with the Turkish minority, and the nationalist Vazrazhdane, which a number of European sources characterize as a Eurosceptic and pro-Russian force, are also highly likely to enter parliament.
Preliminary results as of 12:00, according to the Bulgarian outlet “Dnevnik,” confirm the lead of Radev’s party.
The reason for the current vote was the collapse of the previous governing structure. According to OSCE/ODIHR, after the elections in October 2024, a minority government was formed headed by Rosen Zhelyazkov. Then a decision of the Constitutional Court in March 2025 changed the distribution of mandates, the coalition lost its margin of stability, and in December 2025 the cabinet resigned amid protests and corruption allegations. After unsuccessful attempts to form a new government, the presidential mandate cycle ended in failure, and the country went to new elections.
Even if Radev comes first, this does not automatically mean the emergence of a stable government. He has already ruled out an alliance with Borisov’s GERB and with DPS, and the most logical potential partner in terms of the domestic anti-corruption agenda could be the coalition “Continue the Change — Democratic Bulgaria.” However, this is where the main barrier arises: foreign policy. Radev condemns the war, but has opposed military aid to Ukraine and supported the resumption of dialogue with Moscow, while the pro-European bloc adheres to a much tougher line.
For the region, this makes the Bulgarian elections far more important than a typical domestic political campaign. In the event of a convincing victory for Radev, Sofia will of course not leave the EU and NATO, but may become more cautious and less predictable on issues of support for Ukraine, sanctions policy, and the overall line toward Russia. This is why Western media and analysts view Bulgaria as one of the potential pressure points on European unity following changes in the political landscape of neighboring countries.
A separate risk factor is the information environment. Euronews, citing the Center for the Study of Democracy, writes that Bulgaria remains one of the most vulnerable countries in the EU to malicious information manipulation, and the authorities have even engaged EU mechanisms to counter possible interference and disinformation ahead of the vote. Against this background, special attention is focused on the nationalist party Vazrazhdane, which has already figured in controversies around anti-Western and anti-eurozone narratives.
For the Balkans and the Black Sea region, three main scenarios are possible. The first is Radev’s victory followed by a complex but workable coalition agreement. In this case, Bulgaria may become a more autonomous and less ideologically pro-European actor, which will increase uncertainty for Ukraine and complicate coordination within the EU on security issues. The second is a victory without the ability to form a government. In that case, Bulgaria risks entering again a cycle of short-lived governing formulas and caretaker governments, which will weaken its role in regional projects and in Black Sea policy. The third is a weaker result for the favorite and an attempt by traditional pro-European forces to form an alternative coalition. Such a scenario would appear the most comfortable for Brussels, but for now is not considered the baseline scenario.
