Ukraine retains its status as the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil, with a market share of about 33%, even as Russia actively expands its processing capacity and attempts to displace Ukrainian producers from their traditional markets.
This was reported by Maksym Kharchenko, an analyst at the information and analytical agency “UkrAgroConsult.”
“Russia is constantly breathing down our necks, ramping up processing and, in fact, hot on our heels. They have already partially managed to take advantage of the situation that arose after 2022 and capture our traditional market in India, where we were the No. 1 supplier. A similar picture is emerging in the markets of Turkey and Italy, where the competitor is significantly strengthening its presence,” he said at the Black Sea Grain.Kyiv conference on Wednesday.
According to the analyst, Ukraine’s sunflower processing industry remains critically dependent on exports, as domestic consumption does not exceed 300,000 tons. Despite an export potential of up to 6 million tons of oil per year, shipment volumes have fallen short of 5 million tons in recent years due to logistics and yield issues. It is noteworthy that in February 2026, the margin for sunflower processing in Ukraine remained at around 7%.
According to the agency’s data, the top 5 global sunflower oil exporters include Ukraine (33%), Russia (30%), Argentina (14%), as well as Turkey and Kazakhstan (5% each).
“Ukrainian oil remains in the premium segment. We expect supply in the Black Sea region to increase, which may put some downward pressure on prices. However, given the instability in the Middle East and the rising cost of soybean oil, our product will remain competitive,” says Kharchenko.
The expert added that competition is intensifying in other segments as well. In the new 2026/2027 season, Russia has increased its winter rapeseed acreage by more than 50%, targeting the Chinese market. Although Ukraine’s and Russia’s interests in the rapeseed oil market currently hardly overlap, UkrAgroConsult forecasts an inevitable clash of interests in the future.
At the same time, Ukraine is demonstrating rapid growth in rapeseed oil exports—shipment volumes are already twice as high as last year’s. Key buyers include EU countries (Poland, Spain, Italy) and Thailand. The situation is similar with soybeans: soybean meal exports have jumped by 50%, with Poland becoming the main market.
The agency noted that domestic processing was supported by the 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans introduced by Ukraine in 2025. This allowed raw materials to remain in the country and boosted sales of value-added products.
UkrAgroConsult expects oilseed production in Ukraine to continue growing in the 2026/2027 season. In particular, the sunflower harvest could reach 13.7 million tons. Kharchenko emphasized that despite the risks of war, the oilseed sector is recovering the fastest, and the acreage planted with these crops has already exceeded pre-2022 levels.
