Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the first quarter of 2025, following a 3.0% increase in the fourth quarter of last year, 2.1% in the third quarter, 0.7% in the second, and 0.8% in the first, the State Statistics Service reported on Tuesday.
According to its data, compared to the previous quarter, taking into account seasonal factors, real GDP decreased by 0.7%, while a quarter earlier this figure was positive at 0.7%.
As reported, the National Bank lowered its forecast for real GDP growth in 2026 to 1.3% from 1.8% in its January Inflation Report due to the still-dire state of the energy system and the accumulation of negative economic effects from the war in the Middle East. The NBU estimated GDP growth in the first quarter at 0.2%
At the same time, the Ministry of Economy estimated a 0.2% decline in GDP for January-February of this year.
As reported, according to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 1.8% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2023, following a 28.8% decline in 2022—the first year of full-scale aggression.
