About 20% of Kyiv’s cafes and restaurants may close or suspend operations in the next three months, according to Olga Nasonova, a restaurant consultant and director of the “Restaurants of Ukraine” analytical center.
“There are currently about 3,500 restaurants and cafes in Kyiv, as well as 1,200 coffee shops and bakeries in small retail kiosks. More than 500 establishments were put up for sale in August–October; that number has since decreased because about 150 of them have either been sold or closed. About 10% of existing establishments may close this winter, and an equal share of those that managed to negotiate reduced rates or rent-free periods with landlords are reporting that they will suspend operations until spring,” Nasonova told the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
The expert expects most news about closures or the resumption of operations to come in February and March; everything will depend on the security and economic situation.
According to her, the most vulnerable group of establishments right now are those in shopping centers, which are experiencing a decline in foot traffic due to security concerns and power outages, as well as changes in consumer behavior.
“There’s also a problem with management companies that aren’t willing to adjust the terms of their contracts. And we’re seeing the first closures of chain restaurants. For example, ‘Sushiya’ closed its five restaurants located in shopping centers because they could not reach an agreement on the lease. At the same time, the chain’s street-retail locations remained open,” Nasonova cited as an example.
At risk are establishments located in small architectural forms (MAFs), which Kyiv continues to dismantle, as well as small family-run establishments.
“Typically, family-run establishments, facing declining foot traffic and rising operating costs (electricity from generators, water, etc.), shut down after three to four months of operating at a loss,” the expert explained.
This fall, the business-lunch segment has shrunk significantly as most employees have transitioned to a hybrid or remote work format; as a result, establishments that catered to this demographic are experiencing a significant shortfall.
“The draft beer segment has also started to falter,” says Nasonova.
At the same time, budget-friendly formats, such as cafeterias or delis, are, on the contrary, seeing an increase in volume—in part because, in response to power outages, people are taking prepared meals home.
“Establishments located in densely populated residential complexes are faring somewhat better; there, a café or pizzeria with a generator becomes a hub of resilience, and average check amounts are even increasing,” she noted.
Chains that have invested in delivery services are now seeing growth in this area.
BUSINESS, cafe, KYIV, rent, RESTAURANT
