Ukraine’s economy in 2025 will grow by 4.9% with a slight decrease in inflation rate compared to this year to 8%, such macro forecast of Raiffeisen Bank (Kiev) was shared by the head of its board of directors Alexander Pisaruk.
“As for the dollar exchange rate, we expect devaluation of about 8% in 2025, and the exchange rate itself will be 45.5 UAH/$1 at the end of 2025. The baseline scenario is based on the hypothesis that security risks will improve from the second half of 2025,” he said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
Pisaruk noted that the bank always does stress tests taking into account not only the baseline scenario, but also the best and worst case scenarios.
“But we do not have two fundamentally different development scenarios. All preliminary forecasts on the end of the war did not come true. The head of the NBU said this at the meeting of the European Business Association, and I am ready to sign these words that let’s stop predicting and making mistakes, and let’s just work,” – said at the same time the head of Raiffeisen.
According to him, even if the ceasefire is at the end of the first quarter, it will not dramatically affect performance in 2025.
“It could have an impact on 2026. So even such important things affect with a certain lag. 2025 will be influenced by the current dynamics of inflation growth and the need to curb it,” Pisaruk said.
He added that he would not be surprised if the National Bank has to raise the discount rate as a result of faster-than-expected acceleration of inflation.
“Regarding deposit and lending rates in hryvnia, we do not expect them to deviate significantly from current levels,” the banker pointed out.
He reminded that this process began back in July, and the main factor is the dynamics of the NBU discount rate, which is very likely to be stable until mid-summer 2025.
“But the rates on deposits in US dollars and euros may slightly decrease in response to the relevant decisions of the Fed and the ECB, although they remain quite low in Ukraine now,” – suggested the head of Raiffeisen Bank.
Commenting on the impact of the situation on the front on the mood of the population and business, he stated that this is reflected in the foreign exchange market.
“We observe a significant increase in demand for cash currency, although the supply also remains high. This leads to an increase in interventions by the National Bank, which, fortunately, has reserves for this purpose, formed at the expense of international currency aid,” Pisaruk said.
According to him, the situation now seems quite manageable, as the external aid next year looks sufficient to finance the budget deficit and replenish the NBU’s foreign exchange reserves. The CEO also said that Raiffeisen Bank remains the main supplier of cash currency to Ukraine.
“And who is number two, I don’t even know, because the gap is huge. This is a complicated business – you need to know the counterparties, provide logistics. We know how to do it and have been doing it for decades”, – he noted.
As reported, the GDP of Ukraine, according to the State Statistics Committee, in 2023 grew by 5.3% after a decline of 28.8% in 2022. The National Bank of Ukraine in late October raised the forecast of economic growth for 2024 from 3.7% to 4%, and for 2025 – from 4.1% to 4.3%. At the same time, the NBU in late October worsened the inflation forecast for 2024 from 8.5% to 9.7% and worsened it for 2025 from 6.6% to 6.9% after it fell to 5.1% in 2023 after jumping to 26.6% in 2022. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on November 27 lowered the official hryvnia exchange rate to 41.6010 UAH/$1, the lowest value in its history. In general, since the beginning of 2024, the dollar at the official rate has appreciated by 9.5%, or by UAH 3.59, and since the transition of the National Bank on October 3, 2023 to the regime of managed flexibility – by 13.8%, or by UAH 5.03.
Quotes of interbank currency market of Ukraine (UAH for 1 PLN, in 01.07.2024-30.07.2024)
Open4Business.com.ua
The Asian Development Bank will provide $250 million in policy interventions to support the Government of Uzbekistan’s efforts to strengthen the institutional framework for climate transition, enhance integration and alignment of climate change adaptation priorities, and accelerate climate change mitigation measures.
The Climate Transition Acceleration Program will support the Government of Uzbekistan in three reform areas: strengthening institutions and public financial management; enhancing climate resilience in water and land management, agriculture, and social protection systems; and accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy in sectors such as transport and energy.
This program, which is ADB’s first programmatic response to climate change in Central Asia, is in line with the updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), the 2030 Strategic Framework for the Transition to a Green Economy, and ADB’s Country Partnership Strategy for Uzbekistan 2024-2028.
“The program prioritizes decarbonizing the economy and building resilience to natural disasters and climate change, while supporting vulnerable populations,” said Evgeny Zhukov, ADB’s Director General for Central and West Asia. “Uzbekistan is among the world’s most energy-intensive economies, so the program will support the government’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP by 35 percent by 2030. The reduction will be achieved through the development of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency.”
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), after depreciating the official hryvnia exchange rate by 12 kopecks on Monday, lowered it by another 7 kopecks on Tuesday to 41.5035 UAH/$1, according to the regulator’s website.
“Ukraine’s currency market remains under pressure from psychological factors, although the fundamental macroeconomic indicators do not yet give grounds for strong devaluation pressure and abrupt changes in exchange rates,” KIT Group analysts state in their currency market forecast.
At the same time, they expect a smooth devaluation of the hryvnia in the future. In particular, according to KIT Group’s forecast, the official exchange rate of the national currency to the US dollar will remain in the range of 41-42 UAH/$1 by the end of November, provided that the current state of the macroeconomy and security situation remains unchanged.
By the end of this year, analysts predict the hryvnia will weaken to 43 UAH/$1, which, according to them, may be due to seasonal demand for foreign currency.
The National Bank set the reference exchange rate at 12:00 p.m. today at 41.4815 UAH/$1, compared to 41.4087 UAH/$1 a day earlier.
The US dollar on the cash market on Tuesday rose by 8 kopecks, both when buying and selling, to 41.68 UAH/$1 and 41.75 UAH/$1, respectively.
Since the beginning of 2024, the dollar has risen by 9.2%, or UAH 3.50, at the official exchange rate, and by 13.5%, or UAH 4.93, since the National Bank switched to managed flexibility on October 3, 2023.
The average annual rate of 45 UAH/$1 included in the state budget for 2025 is considered realistic by KIT Group analysts, who note that it implies exchange rate fluctuations in the range of 44-46 UAH/$1.
Ukraine’s international reserves in October, according to preliminary estimates of the NBU, decreased by 6%, or $2.32 billion, to $36 billion 578 million, while net international reserves (NIR) decreased by $3.11 billion, or 12.2%, to $22 billion 437 million.
South Koreans remain widely opposed to directly supplying arms to Ukraine, recent polls show, despite renewed international requests from Kyiv and allied capitals after North Korean troops were reported to be helping Russia.
Ukraine has asked Seoul for a range of weapons and Seoul has said it could consider such aid, depending on future steps by Russia and North Korea.
A Ukrainian delegation led by Defence Minister Rustem Umerov met South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on Wednesday, Yoon’s office said, amid media reports that the visit aimed to seek arms support.
“No to the South Korean government planning arms supply to Ukraine,” read a banner held by a small group of protesters gathered outside Yoon’s office in the capital.
Both sides agreed to keep up sharing of information on North Korea’s dispatch of troops to Russia as well as the exchange of technology and weapons between the two, Yoon’s office said in a statement.
The delegation also met Seoul’s national security advisor Shin Won-sik and defence minister Kim Yong-hyun and discussed cooperation between Seoul and Kyiv.
Ukraine planned to send Seoul a detailed request for arms support including artillery and an air defence system, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an October interview with South Korean broadcaster KBS.
A Western diplomat told Reuters that discussions behind the scenes focused on air defence systems designed to shoot down aircraft and missiles, but this month’s U.S. presidential election win by Donald Trump cast uncertainty over the talks.
Yoon, already battling with record low approval ratings over domestic scandals, faces wide opposition from the South Korean public to the idea of arming Ukraine, surveys have shown.
Most South Koreans viewed growing military ties between Pyongyang and Moscow as a threat, a Gallup Korea poll showed in October, but 82% opposed sending military aid, including arms.
“To the South Korean government, there will be fewer benefits for continuing to support (military aid) when there is little domestic support and the relationship with the next U.S government could deteriorate,” said Yang Uk, an analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
Yoon’s low approval ratings, along with little public backing for supply of weapons, are burdens sapping his mandate on foreign policy, he added.
The public, largely not sensitive to the seriousness of the war in Ukraine, is likely to focus on the downside in the event of the South’s direct involvement, Yang said.
Unlike neighbouring Japan, which has also avoided directly arming Kyiv, South Korea is one of the world’s largest weapons exporters and has inked large, lucrative defence deals with Ukraine’s neighbours.
South Korea has provided demining vehicles, body armour, and other non-lethal aid for Ukraine and has not ruled out supply of weapons to Kyiv, especially after Seoul and Washington reported the dispatch of thousands of North Korean troops to Russia.
At home, the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) has criticised the government for not ruling out provision of weapons aid and urged it to seek parliamentary approval for such decisions.
The DP has a majority in parliament after a landslide victory in an April election, but experts say the president can bypass the body to supply lethal weapons to another country.
In an interview with Russia’s TASS news agency, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said ties between Seoul and Moscow would be “completely destroyed” if South Korea supplied arms to Ukraine.
Russia should first ask itself what it provides to North Korea in exchange for Pyongyang’s dispatch of troops and how it is threatening the security of South Korea, a senior South Korean foreign ministry official told a background briefing on Wednesday, when asked about the comments.
Seoul’s response depends on the actions of Russia and North Korea, the official added, speaking on condition of anonymity.
https://www.reuters.com/world/south-koreans-remain-opposed-sending-arms-ukraine-2024-11-27/
On November 26, the Central Election Commission announced a tender for voluntary insurance of motor vehicles (CASCO) and compulsory motor third party liability insurance (MTPL), according to the Prozorro e-procurement system.
The total expected cost of the purchase of services is UAH 439.2 thousand.
The last day for receipt of bids is December 4.
The winner of a similar tender a year earlier on hull insurance was IC “Ultra Alliance”.
