Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate slowed to 3.5% in May from 4.2% in April and 4.8% in March as a result of significant damage to electricity generation by Russian attacks, the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IEPC) said in its Monthly Economic Monitor.
“Due to the damage to electricity generation, restrictions on business electricity supply have been applied. The IED estimates that the growth rate in the processing industry has slowed to 5% from 11%. At the same time, easier logistics supported the sector’s growth. We are talking, in particular, about machine building and metallurgy,” the IED noted.
According to the institute’s estimates, real gross value added (GVA) growth in the extractive industry increased by 2% due to fairly stable production of gas, iron ore, as well as construction materials.
Real GVA in transportation rose by almost 15%, up from 11% in April, in part due to the unblocking of western borders as well as the statistical base effect.
“In contrast to the weak performance of the “grain corridor” in 2023, the Ukrainian Maritime Corridor allows us to maintain high exports through seaports. At the same time, not only grain, but also iron ore and metallurgy products are brought in,” the IEI stated.
In May, as in the previous three months, consumer inflation was slightly above 3% (3.3%). The IEI believes that this reflected a good harvest last year (and for some products this year) and low export prices for Ukrainian agricultural products compared to last year, lower logistics costs for imports and significant competition for consumer demand.
According to the IEI, this has so far compensated for the increase in a number of business expenses due to rising wages, rising fuel and electricity costs, and the weakening of the hryvnia against the dollar.
It is expected that the balance between the factors restraining price growth and growth of suppliers’ and retailers’ expenses may change in the next months and lead to acceleration of inflation.
At the same time, moderate inflation expectations and relatively limited demand will further restrain price growth, so sharp price increases for most goods are not expected. The exception was the government’s increase in electricity tariff, which led to an increase in the consumer price index by more than 1%.
Monthly inflation accelerated to 0.6% in May due to a 10% rise in fruit prices. At the same time, egg prices continued to fall: they fell in price by 14% and almost halved compared to December last year. Prices for other goods rose by an average of 0.3%.
As reported, after Ukraine’s GDP growth of 5.3% in 2023, the National Bank expects it to slow down to 3% in 2024, while the government expects it to slow down to 4.6%. According to the Ministry of Economy, GDP growth for January-April this year amounted to 4.4%, while the NBU estimated it at 3.7%.
Earlier, the analytical center Experts Club and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3.
Subscribe to Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
Insurance group “TAS” (Kiev) for January-May 2024 paid out UAH 785,23 mln under the concluded insurance contracts – it is by 54,3% more than the amount of indemnities of the company for five months of the last year, as reported on the website of the insurer.
More than a quarter of the total volume of payments fell on CASCO – UAH 218,72 mln, which is 38% higher than the corresponding indicator for 5 months of the last year. 2023, 34,37% or UAH 269,89 mln fell on MTPL (+39,2%), 19,5% or UAH 154,6 mln – on “Green Card” (+75,2%).
Even more – in 2,3 times – payments under contracts of voluntary medical insurance have increased up to UAH 117,94 mln, that makes 15,02% of the total volume of indemnities paid by the company in the reporting period
For the first five months of 2024, TAS IG paid UAH 4,13 mln under property insurance contracts, and UAH 19,94 mln under other insurance contracts – by 54,6% more than in the past.
SG “TAS” was registered in 1998. It is a universal company offering its clients more than 80 types of insurance products on various types of voluntary and compulsory insurance. It has an extensive regional network: 28 regional directorates and branches and 450 sales offices throughout Ukraine.
The Supervisory Board of PJSC Insurance Company “Columnaid Ukraine” on June 18 terminated the powers of CEO Svyatoslav Yaroshevych, appointing him Acting Chairman of the Board, according to the company’s information posted in the system of the National Commission on Securities and Stock Market.
The reason for this decision was the termination of the sole executive body “CEO” and the appointment of a collegial executive body “board of the company” in accordance with the new version of its charter.
It is emphasized that Yaroshevich is appointed acting pre-management until the National Bank approves his candidacy for the position of chairman of the board.
In addition, the NAB has appointed the head of underwriting department Oleksiy Pilipenko and financial director Yulia Aniskina as acting members of the Board, also before the approval of the NBU.
PJSC IC Colonnade Ukraine (until 2016 – PJSC with AI “QBE Ukraine”) was founded in 1998 as the first international insurer in the Ukrainian market.
As reported, the company Colonnade Finance SARL (Luxembourg) in November 2015 has concentrated 99,9833% of the authorized capital of the insurer. Earlier Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited entered into an agreement with QBE Management (Ireland) Limited and its Ukrainian partner on indirect acquisition of 100% of the Ukrainian IC through the companies Colonnade Finance SARL (Luxembourg), Fairfax Holdings Inc. (Connecticut, USA), Fairfax Financial (US) LLS (Delaware, USA).
KAN Development will invest about $80 mln in the construction of two schools in Kiev. construction two schools designed for more than 2,000 pupils in total, Igor Nikonov, founder of the KAN Development development company, told Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
“We fulfill our social obligations to the residents of the Republic Residential Complex. Here will be the largest educational institution in our A+ network. The building of 25 thousand square meters will house Respublika STEAM І-ІІІІ school and A+STEAM kindergarten. We will strive to launch it already by September 1, 2026,” Nikonov said during the official start of the construction of the construction work on Monday.
The building, designed by archimatika, will be located on a 3.3-hectare plot of land and will consist of four separate educational blocks: kindergarten, elementary, middle and high school – united by a large 80×18-meter column-free central atrium with an amphitheater in the center.
According to Nikonov, the investment in launching the school (construction and equipment) is estimated at about $40 million.
In parallel, work is underway on another school, on McCain St., a project that went to KAN Development six months ago. “Historically, there were commitments by another company to build an American school there, but due to the war this project was stopped. We have now finalized its concept. There will be IT direction, from the first grade to 12,” Nikonov said.
Architectural workshop “A. Pashenko” is working on the project. The area of the building is about 26 thousand square meters. m. The school is also designed for about 1 thousand pupils. The volume of investments is $40 million.
“On the basis of this school we want to make a small university. For this purpose we have already allocated the premises, about 3 thousand square meters. m. Our goal is to provide in our A+ network continuous quality education up to 23 years of age, from kindergarten to getting a profession,” Nikonov said.
This school, too, is scheduled to open on September 1, 2026, but Nikonov said Respublika STEAM is a priority. “We’re all dependent on financial issues. We definitely have funds reserved for schools, but the STEAM school is more important because it is our commitment to the residents of the LCD,” he said.
He added that great attention is paid to ensuring safety: all 11 institutions of the A+ network will be provided with shelters. In schools under construction they are included in the projects, in existing schools they are adapted, if the existing solutions allow, or separate ones are built. In particular, two new shelters are being built for existing schools – for the elementary school in “Republic” and for the school in “Comfort Town”. The budget of each of the projects is UAH 70 mln.
KAN Development was established in 2001. The company’s portfolio includes Ocean Plaza, Respublika Park, Tetris Hall, Central Park, Comfort Town, Faina Town, Respublika, IQ Business Center and 101 Tower. For more than 20 years on the market, KAN Development has developed more than 3 million square meters of residential, retail and commercial real estate. The company is also actively developing its own network of “A+” educational institutions.
The number of operating stores in Ukraine in January-March 2024 exceeded 18 thousand, which is 4% higher than in the first quarter of 2023, said Oleg Klopov, commercial real estate manager of Retail&Development Advisor (RDA) consulting company, at RAU Expo 2024 in Kiev.
“Separately, we should note the return of our partners – international brands. In RECs, where they have restored their work, the growth of traffic in general by 10% was noted. If we talk about regional development, the leader in the fashion category was Sinsay, which opened 38 stores during the war, 35 of which – outside Kiev,” he said.
Speaking about the geography of development of networks, Klopov noted that “the greatest activity of retail chains coincides with the concentration of internally displaced persons.”
At the same time, in the country as a whole, rental rates increased over the year – in shopping centers by 10%, in street retail – up to 20%.
“The growth occurs mainly for locations up to 200 square meters, i.e. such locations, which can afford small chains, actively developing in the regions”, – explained Klopov.
Retail & Development Advisor is a Ukrainian consulting company providing a full range of services in the sphere of retail, office and logistics real estate. real estate. It was founded in 2013. It offers services of development of architectural concept, brokerage in retail, office and logistics real estate, real estate management, outsourcing of RC development/leasing department, market analytics, etc. He has experience of successful cooperation with international and domestic operators such as: Yves Rocher, Metro, New Yorker, LC Waikiki, Adidas, JYSK, Colin’s, Vodafone, Terranova, Crocs, Miniso, EVA, Allo, KOLO, Rozetka, Ukrzoloto, Golden Age Prostor, “Luxoptika”, Intertop, etc.
The business environment continues to reduce the number of employees and aggravate the problem of finding qualified personnel, which may become a key factor for the Ukrainian economy in the next months.
These are the main results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey (#NRES) of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).
According to them, in May the rating of obstacles for business has not undergone significant changes. The top three among them have remained unchanged for several months: the danger of working (an obstacle for 56% of respondents), labor shortages (49%), and rising prices (46%).
“56% said that the danger of doing business is the biggest obstacle – and such a high figure was not even at the beginning of the war. Large businesses complain most about this. Also, the problem of electricity supply has been actualized again: compared to April, twice as many businesses complain about it (21% – in April, 41% – in May),” the study quotes the words of IEI expert Eugene Angel.
At the same time, the IEI noted that for the first time in two years the percentage of Ukrainian industrial business operating at full capacity exceeded 15% and amounted to 18% in May, while in April the figure was 13%.
In addition, the percentage of companies that find it difficult to guess what will happen to operations in two years has decreased – from 38.2% in April to 30.9% in May.
The two-year uncertainty rate has been gradually declining since February of this year. Then it was 50.6%, now it is 30.9% and it is the lowest value since October 2022.
The IEI emphasized that a clear trend of stagnation or decline in positive expectations for the two-year period is noticeable.
“That is, businesses understand what they will be doing in two years’ time, but they don’t see that future as positive. Most likely because it is getting more and more used to the view that the war will last a long time,” explained Oksana Kuzyakiv, executive director of the IEI.
At the same time, she added that assessments of the financial and economic situation at enterprises and the general economic environment are growing in the six-month perspective. Accordingly, respondents do not expect deterioration of the situation either at their own enterprises or in the country’s economy as a whole.
Enterprises have had a stable order book for more than three months for almost a year now. The average term of new orders in May amounted to 3.4 months, which is slightly longer than in April (3.3 months), but corresponds to the level of March this year (3.4 months).
In addition, the Business Activity Recovery Index (BAI) increased from 0.33 to 0.40 (on a scale of -1 to +1) in May 2024 compared to April. As explained in the IEI, this was due to an increase in the proportion of businesses that reported that their business activity was better than in 2023, from 45.3% in April to 55.4% in May. Meanwhile, 15.1% (12% in April) said business activity had worsened, with nothing changed for 29.4% (42.7% a month earlier).
The May NRES survey included 534 Ukrainian industrial enterprises of all sizes located in 21 of Ukraine’s 27 regions. The field phase of the 25th wave of the survey lasted from May 20 to May 31, 2024.
