A feed mill in the Poltava Oblast plans to expand its capacity to process corn and pea grain, the USAID Agro Program reported on Facebook.
According to the report, the Lokhvitsky Feed Mill will implement the grant project in cooperation with the agency.
Under the project, the enterprise will begin construction of a cereal plant that produces corn groats and flour, and will also process peas. The operation is scheduled to start up in November this year.
The plant is expected to produce up to 120 tons of grain per day. It will operate on new equipment from a Ukrainian manufacturer. The plant plans to cooperate with farmers who will grow corn on the seed provided to them.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food forecasts in 2024 gross production of grain and oilseeds at the level of 74 million tons, of which about 52.4 million tons of cereals and 21.7 million tons of oilseeds.
As noted on the agency’s website, at the beginning of last year, the total gross harvest of grains and oilseeds for 2023 was also forecast to be almost 13% lower than the previous period, at 63.5 million tons, but weather conditions led to an increase in the harvest. Therefore, gross production in 2023 is about 82 million tons, of which cereals more than 60 million tons and oilseeds about 22 million tons.
“Forecasts for gross harvest figures are preliminary and will be adjusted during the year depending on circumstances, primarily weather conditions,” the Ministry of Agrarian Policy emphasized.
According to the forecast, in 2024, farmers will be able to harvest cereals in the following volumes: wheat – 19.2 million tons (22.2 million tons were harvested last year), barley – 4.9 million tons (5.7 million tons in 2023) and corn – 26.7 million tons (30.5 million tons).
Among oilseeds, soybeans are projected to increase. This crop is expected to produce 5.2 million tons, a year earlier 4.7 million tons were harvested. Sunflower production is forecast at 12.4 million tons versus 12.9 million tons, respectively. Rapeseed is planned to be harvested at 4.1 million tons, while last year’s crop was 4.7 million tons.
Sown areas of grain and leguminous crops are forecast at 10.6 million hectares, which is 395 thousand hectares less than in 2023. Of these, winter wheat is sown on 4.3 mln ha (-0.3 mln ha), spring wheat – 0.2 mln ha. (+0.2 thousand ha), winter barley – 0.47 million ha (-0.15 million ha).
The area of spring barley is forecasted at 0.94 million hectares (+0.06 million hectares), corn – 3.9 million hectares (-62 thousand hectares).
Among oilseeds, the area sown with soybeans is increasing. It is forecasted that it will be sown on the area of 2.2 million hectares. This is almost 400 thousand hectares more than last year. Sunflower will be sown almost as much as last year – 5.3 million hectares, rape – 1.5 million hectares, which is 0.1 million hectares less than last year.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy, based on the results of a survey conducted in the State Agrarian Register on the preparation of agricultural producers for the sowing campaign of spring crops for the harvest-2024, reported that 70% of respondents plan to increase the area under soybean by an average of 21% compared to 2023.
The survey also showed that during the spring sowing season Ukrainian agrarians will prioritize grain legumes, the sown areas under which will increase by 11%, and spring barley – by 7%. It is expected that sown areas under spring rape will increase by 24%, sugar beet – by 17%, and under corn will decrease by 9%. Sunflower areas may potentially decrease.
Earlier, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy allowed a reduction in 2024 sown areas under spring crops by 0.5 million hectares or 3.7% compared to last season.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has clarified the forecast of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2024 under the World Economic Outlook (WEO): it expects it at the level of 3.2%, then during the third revision of the EFF Extended Fund Facility program in March estimated it in the range of 3-4%.
According to a publication on the Fund’s website on Tuesday, the economic growth forecast for 2025 was kept at 6.5%, up from 5.3% in 2023, according to the State Statistics Service.
The IMF also expects average annual inflation to slow to 6.4% this year from 12.9% last year and accelerate slightly to 7.6% in 2025.
Ukraine’s current account deficit forecast for this year and next year has been kept at the same level as in the third revision of the EFF program – 5.7% of GDP and 8.2% of GDP after 5.5% of GDP last year.
The Fund also reiterated expectations for unemployment to fall from 19.1% last year to 14.5% this year and 13.8% next year/
The IMF indicated that it forecast growth in the euro zone to accelerate to 0.8% this year and 1.5% next year after 0.4% last year, driven by the strong impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
“Stronger household consumption as the impact of the energy price shock fades and lower inflation supports real income growth is expected to support the recovery,” the Fund said, clarifying that the updated estimate is 0.1-0.2 percentage points (p.p.) worse than the previous estimate made in January.
Overall, the WEO said global economic growth, estimated at 3.2% in 2023, will continue at the same pace in 2024 and 2025. The forecast for 2024 is revised upward by 0.1pc from the January estimate.
“These growth rates are low by historical standards, driven by both short-term factors, such as continued high borrowing costs and the withdrawal of fiscal support, and the longer-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, weak productivity growth, and increased geoeconomic fragmentation,” the IMF said.
Overall global inflation is expected to decline from an annual average of 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing countries.
The report also notes that the forecast for global economic growth in five years’ time (at 3.1%) is the lowest in decades. ” An alarming change is the widening gap between many low-income countries and the rest of the world. The growth forecast for these economies has been revised downward and the inflation forecast has been raised,” the Fund states.
Worse still, the report notes that compared to most other regions, estimates of long-term damage for low-income developing countries, including some large countries, are revised upward, indicating that the poorest countries are still unable to recover from the pandemic and cost-of-living crisis.
Its experts attribute the relatively weak medium-term outlook to lower GDP per capita growth, due in part to persistent structural frictions preventing the movement of capital and labor to productive firms. And worsening growth prospects in China and other large emerging market economies, given their growing share in the global economy, will have a negative impact on the development prospects of their trading partners.
According to the IMF, the risks to the global economic outlook are currently balanced. “On the downside, new price spikes triggered by geopolitical tensions, including from the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza and Israel, could, along with the resilience of core inflation while labor markets remain tight, lead to higher interest rate expectations and lower asset prices,” the WEO pointed out.
The fund added that geo-economic fragmentation could intensify, with higher barriers to the flow of goods, capital and people implying slower economic growth due to lower supply.
At the same time, it noted that artificial intelligence and stronger structural reforms than expected could boost productivity growth.
As the global economy approaches a soft landing, the priority for central banks in the short term is to ensure that inflation falls smoothly, avoiding both premature policy easing and excessive delay leading to lagging behind targets, the IMF also said.
“Multilateral cooperation is needed to limit the costs and risks associated with geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, accelerate the transition to green energy, and facilitate debt restructuring,” the Fund concluded.
More details on macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world, GDP of major countries and other economic topics were discussed in one of the video analysis of Experts club analytical center – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=Ymo-FlMFNGfLLdK-.
Subscribe to Experts club channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
EXPERTS CLUB, GDP GROWTH, IMF, MACROECONOMICS, UKRAINE, URAKIN
State enterprise “NAEK Energoatom” on April 16 reported that IC “Mega-Policy” was recognized as the winner of the tender for insurance of liability for high-risk facilities, for damage that may be caused as a result of emergencies.
As reported in the system of electronic public procurement Prozorro, the expected cost -139,515 thousand UAH, the company’s price offer of 79,520 thousand UAH.
IC “Industrial Insurance Company” also took part in the tender with the offer of UAH 41,7 thousand.
As it was informed, IC Mega-Policy was registered in 2000, specializing in risk insurance.
It is advisable for Poland to maintain the blockade on Ukrainian grain imports, but transit should be allowed when transshipment capacities are free in Polish ports, President of the Grain and Feed Chamber of Poland Monika Pątkowska said in an interview with farmer.pl.
“Today it would be better if the blockade of grain imports is maintained, and when it comes to transit, we could implement it to some extent and thus help Ukraine when we have free handling capacities in Polish ports,” she said.
Pętkowska noted that Polish ports were not 100% loaded in the first quarter of 2024.
“We have to conclude that our port infrastructure, but also the railroad infrastructure is inefficient. Now is the right time to expand it. I believe that we slept through the last two years in this context. Romania has received funds from the European Union and is expanding its infrastructure, while Poland has not done it so far,” the public figure emphasized.
She is sure that Poland should show both Ukraine and the international community that it wants to help effectively but, on the other hand, firmly protects the interests of the Polish farmer. These two goals, in her opinion, should be combined.
“The sooner we come to a mutual understanding, the sooner we develop mechanisms, the less complicated will be the atmosphere that may hinder our broader cooperation not only with Ukraine, but also in the European arena,” summarized the president of the Polish Grain Chamber.
How Ukrainian business migrates during the great war
Almost 19 thousand companies have relocated since the beginning of 2022, according to the Unified State Register. Kyiv and Zakarpattia regions were the most popular destinations for business. Among all companies, wholesalers relocate most often.
Of the total number of companies that have changed their location since the start of the full-scale war, just over 1,000 have moved from the city to the region. Half of them – more than 600 companies – moved from Kyiv, and another 60, or 5.1%, from Odesa region.
Kyiv region is the most popular choice for relocation – 546 relocations. This is almost every second business relocation since the start of the full-scale war. The most popular route was from Kyiv to Kyiv region: 359 relocations. In fact, 30% of all cases when businesses relocate to the region are on this route.
Other routes were less popular. For example, the routes from Lviv to Kyiv region and from Kyiv to Zakarpattia are in second and third place, with 2.7% and 2.6% respectively (30-32 companies).
The leaders in relocations were companies engaged in wholesale trade – 344 relocations (29.3%) and the transportation industry – 92 relocations (7.8%)
Ukroliya LLC with a turnover of over UAH 4 billion became the largest company to change its location. The company moved from Kyiv to Poltava region. Kyiv-Atlantic Ukraine LLC, with a turnover of over UAH 2 billion, also left Kyiv region, but to Cherkasy region.
Kercher LLC with a turnover of more than UAH 1 billion closes the list of top business migrants, as the company changed its place of registration to Kyiv region.
“We started preparing for the move 7 years ago – we bought land and started construction in the Kyiv region in 2020, which was interrupted by the Russian attack and partial occupation of the region. Within 4 months after the liberation of Kyiv region, the company resumed construction, so at the end of 2023, our team moved into a new space. In general, the location of the company outside the city, in the regions, is part of the philosophy of the Kercher brand throughout Europe,” comments Nadiya Kreposna, marketing manager at Kercher.
