International rating agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ukraine’s long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) (LTFC) at ‘Restricted Default’ (RD) pending the completion of the restructuring of obligations for which Ukraine has already suspended payments or announced that it will suspend them in the future.
“Ukraine’s LTFC IDR will remain ‘RD’ until Fitch makes a determination that the exchange has been completed and normalized with a substantial majority of external commercial creditors,” the agency said in a statement on its website.
Fitch recalled that Ukraine continues the process of restructuring its external commercial debt. Following the successful completion of the Eurobond swap in September 2024, the government ordered to temporarily suspend payments on Cargill’s $0.7bn external commercial loan from September 3, 2024, Ukrenergo’s $825m state-guaranteed Eurobonds from November 9, 2024 and GDP-guarantees from May 31, 2025.
In addition, the agency affirmed the IDR on local loans of “CCC+”. “The higher local currency IDRs reflect Ukraine’s continued servicing of local currency debt as part of the ongoing external commercial debt restructuring process, which confirms our expectation of preferential treatment for local currency debt,” Fitch explained.
It pointed out that the structure of the government bond debt – only 1.3% held by non-residents with an overwhelming share held by the NBU and domestic banks, mostly state-owned – limits Ukraine’s benefits from any restructuring, as it creates potential fiscal costs (including bank recapitalization) and risks to the stability of the financial sector, hindering the development of the domestic debt market.
Fitch expects the war to continue through 2025 within the current broad parameters. “Despite some Russian territorial gains since late 2023, Western military support and strong resolve should allow Ukraine to avoid significant additional territorial losses,” the agency says.
It suggests that the new US administration’s stated goal of ending the war could lead to an agreed ceasefire, but a peace deal is unlikely due to the difficult concessions that would be required from both sides. The parameters of an agreed ceasefire, including security guarantees for Ukraine and territory that would remain under Russian control, remain uncertain, Fitch added.
It estimates that the government budget deficit will remain high at 19.1-19.2% of GDP in 2024-2025, despite recently approved tax increases, due to high defense spending and expected reductions in foreign grants. Significant fiscal consolidation will be limited by the continuation of the war as well as reconstruction costs in the event of a prolonged ceasefire, which is likely to maintain high dependence on foreign financing.
Fitch forecasts Ukraine’s debt to rise to 90.8% of GDP in 2024 from 84.4% in 2023, with 77% of external debt highly concessional and 74% denominated in USD. The agency adds that uncertainty over near-term external financing has eased as the G7 is likely to provide around $50bn in loans backed by proceeds from frozen Russian sovereign assets.
Fitch also expects the current account deficit to widen to 8.4% of GDP in 2024 and 13.6% of GDP in 2025, as capacity constraints (e.g. labor and energy) will restrain export growth. Rising consumer spending, military imports, easing currency restrictions and projected lower subsidies will outweigh the projected decline in imports of services from Ukrainians abroad, the agency added. It estimates that official financing will cover external borrowing needs, with international reserves rising to $42bn in 2024 from $40.5bn in 2023. Fitch also forecasts inflation to average 9.3% in 2025, up from 6.2% in 2024, as rapid wage growth amid labor shortages and skills mismatches could keep price pressures on domestic demand. At the same time, growth will slow to 2.9% in 2025 from 4% in 2024 due to persistent labor and energy shortages. “A durable and credible ceasefire could significantly boost the country’s growth prospects in 2025-2026,” the agency noted.
Some Ukrainian refugees will receive less support from Slovakia from March 2025, after lawmakers approved minor amendments to immigration legislation – the Law on Residence of Foreigners and the Law on Asylum – in late November, Slovak Spectator reported.
“As of March 1, 2025, those granted Ukrainian refugee status after February 28, 2025, will be allowed to stay in asylums for no more than 60 days, up from the current 120 days. Similarly, the residence allowance will be limited to the first 60 days, rather than 120 days, as it has been since July this year,” the statement said.
The changes will not affect vulnerable groups: pensioners over 65, children under five, or single carers of these children.
The government says the measures will save the Interior Ministry EUR2 million, a necessary step given the current pressure on public spending.
Slovakia’s Deputy Interior Minister Peter Krauspe defended the changes, noting that Ukrainian refugees usually secure jobs and housing within two months of arriving in Slovakia. “We need to save money wherever possible,” he said.
But opposition lawmakers said the cuts were excessive, pointing out that neighboring countries provide support for up to 90 days. They also criticized the lack of transparency and consultation in making these last-minute changes.
Forecast of unemployment rate in Ukraine according to methodology of international labor organization until 2025
Open4Business.com.ua
Ukrainian traders report a new wave of price cuts for imported tomatoes. Short-term, but noticeable increase in prices last week was one of the reasons for a sharp decline in demand for Turkish tomatoes from buyers, analysts of the project EastFruit. Also, the project experts note that this week only single batches of local greenhouse vegetables were on sale, due to the fact that the majority of greenhouse farms in Ukraine have already completed the season of realization.
At the same time, the supply of imported tomatoes in the Ukrainian market continued to increase gradually, which was the main reason for the price decrease in this segment. Thus, today greenhouse tomatoes are on sale at UAH 70-80/kg ($1.68-1.92/kg), which is on average 11% cheaper than at the end of the last working week. The main reason for the negative price trend in the segment of greenhouse tomatoes, producers call a sharp decline in demand for this product, as well as the quality of vegetables offered.
It should be added that today imported tomatoes in Ukraine are already sold on average 54% more expensive than in the same period last year. However, most representatives of wholesale companies do not exclude further price reduction. According to traders, if the current sales rates are maintained, they will be forced to concede in price again in order to prevent the accumulation of unsold products in warehouses.
You can get more detailed information about the development of the market of greenhouse tomatoes and other horticultural products in Ukraine by subscribing to the analytical weekly EastFruit Ukraine Weekly Pro. Detailed information about the product can be found here.
On December 5, Dniprovodokanal communal enterprise Dniprovskyi city council announced a tender for compulsory motor third party liability insurance, according to the Prozorro e-procurement system.
The expected price is UAH 2.067mn.
The last day to apply for participation is December 13.
Ukrainian pensioners who receive payments to a bank account and reside in Spain, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Portugal, Poland, must annually until December 31 send to the Pension Fund of Ukraine an officially certified document confirming the individual alive.
According to the website of the Pension Fund of Ukraine, pensioners receiving pension payments through the competent authority of the above states, with which Ukraine has concluded an agreement on the proportional principle, are identified in these bodies.
The report specifies that Ukraine has concluded a number of international treaties on social (pension) security, which regulate, in particular, the procedure for the payment of pensions to citizens who have left for permanent residence abroad. This means that each of the signatory states assigns and pays pensions for the insurance record acquired on its territory. The insurance experience acquired in the territory of another treaty state is taken into account only for determining the right to a pension.
Payment of such pensions is made quarterly by transfer to the personal accounts of pensioners opened in banks of the countries of residence or through the competent authority of the treaty State.
Samples of applications for confirmation of the person’s survivorship are available on the information page of the e-services web portal of the Pension Fund of Ukraine.
