On October 26, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will cut its key policy rate by 2 percentage points (p.p.), from 20% to 18% per annum, bankers said at a press conference of the Association of Ukrainian Banks (AUB) on Wednesday.
“We expect the rate to go down… We think that it can still go down by about 2%,” said Semen Babayev, deputy chairman of Pravex Bank.
According to him, it will also depend on the situation at the frontline and on the support of foreign partners.
Mr. Babayev noted that a rate cut would make it less attractive to place funds in the National Bank’s certificates of deposit, including overnight ones.
“…We, for our part, have already reduced the rate (for deposits of 3 months and more – IF-U) for our customers by 1 percentage point yesterday, offering 13%, but this is also a high rate for international banks,” said the deputy chairman of Pravex Bank.
The banker emphasized that the rapid decline in the cost of money must be justified. He also warned that if banks stop placing their free funds with the National Bank, it could lead to excessive liquidity in the system, which would affect the exchange rate.
“Of course, if we have free resources and we as a banking system are forced to do something with these resources because we lose the ability to place them somewhere, the question will arise as to what to do with them, where to put them: either to return them to customers, which will provoke demand for the currency, or to provide some credit offers,” he said.
Nadezhda Vorobyova, Chairman of the Board of Altbank, shares his opinion on the rate cut, noting that there are grounds for it. Among them, she named the decline in inflation to 7.1%, international reserves of $39.7 billion and their forecast of $38.3 billion at the end of the year, and the exchange rate of 36.45 UAH/$1.
“I think that on October 26 (IF-U) there will be (a decline) of about 2%,” she said.
Vorobyova believes that the National Bank will act cautiously, taking into account the possible impact of the discount rate on the exchange rate and inflation.
“If we make a sharp cut in the interest rate… the money that was attracted by banks for 3-6 months will become unprofitable for banks… There will be no outflow, but banks will lose money on this and offer cheaper deposits. This may lead to people wanting to buy foreign currency, which means there will be a demand for foreign currency,” explained the Altbank CEO.
According to her, the economy needs to be restored by intensifying lending by banks in addition to existing government programs, while making loan rates affordable for businesses – at 14-15%.
Mykhailo Vlasenko, Chairman of the Board of Idea Bank, also expects the key policy rate to be cut by 2 percentage points to 18%, and he supported his colleagues’ opinion that lending to households and small and medium-sized businesses should be resumed.
In his forecast, Vlasenko was guided by the information previously announced by the regulator that the key policy rate would be cut to 16-18% by the end of this year, which, in turn, will depend on macroeconomic indicators and exchange rate stability.
“In my opinion, it’s closer to 18%, because a too rapid reduction of the key policy rate, especially in this period – November-December, in the context of the foreign exchange market’s sensitivity and a significant surplus of hryvnia liquidity, may increase risks and affect exchange rate stability and inflation,” he explained.
Mr. Vlasenko believes that deposit rates will not decline significantly.
“Banks will be forced to revise their business plans and develop plans to intensify lending. I believe that the time for “sitting in the trenches” is over,” said the Chairman of the Board of Idea Bank.
He also reminded that the National Bank has already announced the development of a plan that will allow to intensify lending to the banking system and is involving banks in its development.
Commenting on the words of his colleagues about the resumption of lending, Andriy Grigel, Chairman of the Board of Rada Bank, said that the bank’s commercial rate is currently 21% per annum. “But we will be happy to reduce it,” the banker said.
He also shared the forecast that the NBU will cut the key policy rate by 2 percentage points to 18% at its next meeting, explaining that there is no pressure on the hryvnia and no risk of devaluation.
Griegel also believes that the NBU may change the operational design of monetary policy along with the rate. “The previous decision was when they changed the calculation of the amount of investments in 3-month certificates of deposit from 70% to 35%, and they can also make changes to this formula now,” he said, adding that this will have more impact than the key policy rate itself.
According to the Council of Governors, after the cut at the next meeting, the NBU will then maintain the new rate until the end of the year. “Knowing the NBU’s philosophy, I have never seen them make sudden moves at the end of the year. Mostly, they issue a lot of regulations for banks to work on, but not decisions on rates,” Mr. Griegel said.
He added that the factor of military risks, which cannot be predicted, remains important when the National Bank makes its decisions.
AUB President Andriy Dubas also expects the key policy rate to be cut to 18% at the end of October, with no further cuts by the end of the year.
At the same time, Babayev of Pravex Bank suggests that the rate will be further reduced by another 1 percentage point by the end of this year.
The same opinion is shared by the head of Altbank Vorobyova: according to her expectations, the rate may be cut by another 1 percentage point on December 14.
“Our expectations are minus 3% by the end of the year from today’s figure,” the banker said.
Der Präsident der AUB, Andriy Dubas, geht ebenfalls davon aus, dass der Leitzins bis Ende Oktober auf 18 % gesenkt wird und bis Ende des Jahres keine weiteren Senkungen erfolgen.
Gleichzeitig geht Babayev von der Pravex Bank davon aus, dass der Zinssatz bis Ende des Jahres um einen weiteren Prozentpunkt gesenkt wird.
Die gleiche Meinung vertritt die Leiterin der Altbank Vorobyova: Ihrer Erwartung nach könnte der Zinssatz am 14. Dezember um einen weiteren Prozentpunkt gesenkt werden.
“Unsere Erwartungen liegen bei minus 3 % bis zum Jahresende, ausgehend von der heutigen Zahl”, sagte die Bankerin.
