Alexey Blinov, head of the analytical department at Alfa-Bank, expects the stabilization of the hryvnia card rate for individuals in June and the preservation of the rates of exporters and importers.
“For June, we can predict the preservation of the rates of exporters and importers. As for the bank cash market for individuals, it has more or less stabilized and I don’t think that there will be such jumps that we saw this spring,” he said during the Finclub round table on Tuesday .
His opinion was shared by associate expert of “CASE Ukraine”, ex-deputy director of the financial stability department of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Yevhen Dubogryz, who also noted the stabilization of the exchange rate compared to the jumps observed in the spring.
“It seems to me that we will have a creeping devaluation. Even if the NBU weighs this, there is still pressure on the hryvnia, since we have a war, problems with exports, with the fact that we do not receive the amount of funds from our partners, which we are very necessary,” the expert said.
He noted the existence of a small issue of the hryvnia, which affects inflation not directly, but through inflationary expectations.
“Over time, the NBU will change the course, of course, in the direction of the dollar’s rise in price,” Dubogryz pointed out.
As reported, on February 24, the National Bank suspended the work of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine, except for the sale of foreign currency, and fixed the exchange rate at the official level of that day – UAH 29.2549/$1, which led to the emergence of a “black” market, where in the first days the exchange rate reached 39-40 UAH/$1.
Later, the regulator allowed the sale of currency in branches under the threat of capture by the occupiers, by decision of their management, and from May 21, it canceled the upper limit of both the rate of selling cash currency by banks in Ukraine and the rate of converting the hryvnia into foreign currency on their cards outside the country. Previously, the ceiling for such an exchange rate was the official hryvnia exchange rate fixed on the first day of the war plus 10%, or UAH 32.18/$1. The ceiling for other currencies was calculated at the cross rate against the dollar.
BANKERS, FLUCTUATIONS, HRYVNIA
