The barley market in Ukraine shows the potential for growth, and there is tension in the market due to limited supply, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AAC).
The analysts noted that as of June 23, 2025, barley exports amounted to more than 6 thsd tonnes.
“This is the expected consequence of the low level of stocks at the end of the season. The volume for export is currently limited, which restrains the activity on the foreign markets,” the experts said.
They reminded that the harvesting campaign started in the south of Ukraine, where the yields on the first fields were low and ranged from 1.15-2.5 t/ha.
“Taking into account the weather challenges that have accompanied winter crops since February, the current yields look quite predictable. The average yield of barley in Ukraine is likely to be around 3 t/ha,” the analysts predict.
They stated that the activity on the domestic market is growing, in particular due to the approach of the first shipments in ports. However, supply from producers remains restrained, which creates a shortage in the spot market. This leads to an expected increase in crop prices.
“As of the end of June, the seasonal model shows conditional barley prices in the range of $196-200 per ton, while producers are focused on $200-205. Given the limited supply, this is a very realistic prospect for the coming weeks,” Pusk summarized.
