In Ukraine, the 2025 season is expected to see a significant decrease in gross barley harvest due to a reduction in acreage and the impact of weather risks, according to the analytical cooperative Pusk, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
“This year, we expect a barley harvest of about 5.1-5.3 million tons, which is 40% lower than the pre-war level. This means a significant reduction in supply at the start of the season, and the market is gradually beginning to reflect this in prices,” analysts said.
Experts pointed out that demand for Ukrainian barley is increasing, especially from China, which is returning to the market, and Southern European countries. This creates the conditions for stabilization and even an increase in export activity.
“China has already contracted about 500,000 tons of Ukrainian barley for July-August, and European importers, in particular Spain and Italy, are also stepping up purchases. Traders are seeking to secure their volumes in advance, given the limited prospects for domestic production,” analysts said.
They also see potential for price increases in the second half of the year, especially if weather risks are confirmed and the harvest turns out to be even lower than forecast.
“At the start of the season, the price model shows a level of $200-205/tonne on a CPT basis, but by December-January, we can expect to see $230-240/tonne. The market is already showing a willingness to pay more for limited supplies of high-quality barley,” Pusk predicts.
