The All-Ukrainian Bakers Association (VAP) expects bread prices in the country to rise by 20% by the end of 2025, but this is unlikely to undermine the budget of Ukrainian families, its head Oleksandr Taranenko said in an interview with the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens. Everything is moving in that direction,” he said.
“I won’t be surprised if that happens. Everything is heading in that direction,” he said.
Speaking about the 20% prospect of bread price increases, Taranenko said that the current wholesale price of 1 kg of bread from a bakery is slightly more than 40 hryvnia. At the same time, supermarkets’ margins on bread, using various marketing mechanisms, sometimes reach 30%, although by law they should not exceed 10%.
“Let’s not take domestic statistics into account — they do not reflect reality due to the existence of a ‘shadow’ market and other nuances. Objectively, Ukrainians currently consume 150-200 g of bread per day, or about 5 kg per month. Thus, every month, Ukrainian citizens spend 200-210 UAH on bread. If the price increases by 20% per year, people will spend 40 UAH more on bread every month. Yes, for our pensioners and other low-income groups, 40 hryvnia is a lot of money. However, to say that 40 hryvnia per month will undermine the budget of a Ukrainian family would probably be an exaggeration,” the expert stressed.
Among the reasons for the rise in bread prices, he cited increases in the prices of all components of the product—flour, yeast, fats, and sugar. Added to these are the cost of electricity, logistics, and the state’s requirement for enterprises that are critical to the economy and have the right to reserve personnel to raise salaries to 20,000 hryvnia.
“After taxes, people will receive 16,000 hryvnia. Previously, the average salary in our business was 13-15-16 thousand hryvnia, regardless of the enterprise. You must agree that this is not a high salary. But when someone says that bakers are getting rich, this is not the case at all. A salary increase of even 20-30% is a significant increase in production costs, while we are unable to increase our income,” the expert explained, adding that the profitability of the bread business is currently slightly above zero, and for some types of bread, it is below zero.
Taranenko cited State Statistics Service data, according to which there are over 3,000 registered bread producers in Ukraine.
“Let’s say that not all of them are currently operating for various reasons, but even if only 2,000 of them are operating, it is nonsense to imagine that they have all conspired to make excessive profits,” said the head of the VPP, rejecting the idea of an industry conspiracy to raise bread prices in Ukraine.
