Baked goods will continue to rise in price in 2025. If they increased by 20% in 2024, then in 2025 the increase will be another 15-20%, said Yuriy Duchenko, director of Kyiv Bread LLC.
“We see a trend toward higher prices for products in 2025. This is understandable because costs have risen, primarily for raw materials, i.e., flour, energy, and wages. By the end of the year, I think there will be steps toward price increases. By the end of the year, it (the price increase – IF-U) will be 15-20%,“ he said during the ”Hlib.ua” conference in Kyiv on Thursday.
Duchenko stressed that most bakers are currently operating at the break-even point, and some are even in the red.
Assessing the prospects and trends in the industry in 2025, the director of Kyiv Khleb noted an increase in demand for simple bread recipes in tons. At the same time, there is a decline in sales of wheat, bakery, and pastry products. In other words, according to him, demand for more marginal products in tons is decreasing.
Among the main problems in the industry, the expert named the drain of working capital from processing enterprises due to low production profitability, energy dependence, a decline in the purchasing power of Ukrainians, logistical difficulties, export restrictions, and the shadow market, which has reached 40-50%.
“It cannot be said that our market is completely in the shadows. We are talking about working under a simplified taxation system and certain wage payment schemes. Therefore, products that are manufactured and sold at prices 20% lower than the market price are serious competition in a market where there are about 4,000 manufacturers producing and selling the same product, which costs money and for which the buyer votes with their wallet. There is very strong competition among manufacturers,” Duchenko emphasized.
According to the director of Kyiv Khleb, the situation can be resolved through the automation of industrial production, the use of innovative technologies, in particular artificial intelligence, a change in distribution channels, the development of fast food and street food, franchising schemes, and a focus on fresh, healthy bread.
