The index of business activity expectations (IODA), calculated by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), after three months of being on the positive half of the scale (from 50.5 to 51.5 points) in July fell by 2 points – to a mark of 48.8 on a scale of zero to 100.
“Revision of pricing for enterprises in the electricity market, return to pre-war taxation of fuel prices, stopping the “grain corridor”, increased shelling of infrastructure facilities, as well as a significant shortage of qualified personnel adversely affected the expectations of respondents,” the central bank said.
It is indicated that industrial enterprises, after four months of optimistic assessments, expect deterioration of their economic results: the sectoral index in July amounted to 48.2 against 51.0 in June.
Respondents forecast lower volumes of new export orders, as well as worsened estimates of the volume of unfinished production (unfulfilled orders), stocks of raw materials and supplies. At the same time, a slight increase in the volume of manufactured products is expected, while the volume of new orders is forecasted at the level of the previous month.
As noted by the National Bank, the service sector enterprises retained the most restrained assessment of their economic prospects among other sectors of the economy, given the blocking of the “grain corridor,” rising fuel prices and reduced demand due to weak solvency of the population: the sector index amounted to 47.3 compared to 48.9 in June.
For the first time since April this year, respondents were negative about the volume of services provided. They also predicted a decline in the volume of new orders for services, but expected a slight increase in the volume of services in progress. The majority of the surveyed respondents are in a mood to increase prices for their own products and services due to the growth of purchase prices.
Construction companies maintained positive performance for the third month in a row, thanks to a rebound in the construction of roads, bridges, tunnels and pipelines, as well as seasonal factors: the sector index in July was 51.3, although in June it reached 58.6 points.
Builders continue to expect growth in construction output, new orders, and purchases of raw materials, albeit at a slower pace. Estimates for contractor services remained high, and their availability remained at the same level as the previous month.
Trade companies were positively assessed for the fifth month in a row due to market saturation of goods and slowing inflation, but in this sector too, expectations deteriorated to 51.6 points from 52.5 in June.
It is said that respondents continued to expect growth in the volume of goods purchased for sale, rapid growth in the cost of goods purchased for sale on the back of higher prices of suppliers, as well as lower trade margins.
As for employment, expectations improved only for trade, from 47.6 to 50.9 points. Whereas in industry they decreased from 49.3 to 48.0 points, in services – from 50.4 to 48.6 and in construction – from 54.2 to 50.0 points.
The NBU specified that the monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from July 5 to July 24. It was attended by 490 enterprises. Among the respondents, 44.9% were industrial companies, 28.2% – service companies, 22.2% – trade, 4.7% – construction; 33.7% of respondents were large enterprises, 29.0% – medium-sized enterprises, 37.3% – small enterprises.
In addition, 31.8% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.0% – only export operations, 16.7% – only import operations, 42.4% – do not carry out external economic operations.
